Intel (INTC) said it plans to invest $5.71 billion expanding its manufacturing site in Ireland. Separately — and more dramatically — Trump announced via Truth Social that Apple (AAPL) will begin using Intel-made chips for some products, sending Intel shares to record trading highs.
“I decided to help Intel because we need to design and build our Chips right here in America,” the post read. Intel’s shares have more than quadrupled since Lip-Bu Tan became CEO in March 2025. That is a genuine turnaround — and it is also exactly the problem.
We evaluate turnarounds; we don’t chase them after the re-rating. And a chip deal announced on social media by a president is a headline, not a contract.
TSM stays held on the same logic: if Apple genuinely dual-sources, the foundry that has never missed is the one that keeps the volume. We’ll believe the Intel–Apple arrangement when it becomes paper we can read, not a post we can screenshot.
INTC stays off the books, and the quadruple is exactly why — we evaluate turnarounds, we don’t chase them after the re-rating, and a deal announced on social media is a headline, not a contract. Contrast with what we did buy: Micron (MU) on a $250B committed plan, Broadcom (AVGO) on Apple’s signed $30B. TSM stays held: if Apple genuinely dual-sources, the foundry that has never missed keeps the volume. Watching for a contract, not an announcement.