Shein cleared its key hurdle Friday, winning China’s nod for a long-awaited Hong Kong listing that people familiar say could value it at more than $40 billion — issuing 341.6 million H shares, possibly as early as the third quarter.
Now read that number twice. Shein was valued around $66 billion in a 2023 fundraising round, and its price tag has fallen steadily since, amid competition from Temu and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. The U.S. listing died in 2024 over supply-chain scrutiny; London died in the trade flare-up; the end of the de minimis loophole took another bite.
A company marked down from $66 billion to maybe $40 billion across three failed listing venues in three years is not a growth story. It’s a liquidity event for the people who got in at $66 billion.
The broader tell matters more than the ticker: the IPO window is wide open (SpaceX at $86B, OpenAI and Anthropic circling), and that is precisely when the merchandise gets mixed.
Avoided, and not a close call. A company marked from $66B to maybe $40B across three failed venues in three years is a liquidity event for early holders, not a growth story. We don’t buy other people’s exits with retirement money. The wider signal — an open IPO window with SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic circling — is exactly when quality gets mixed with merchandise. Our IPO rule holds: we buy the second annual report, not the first roadshow.