The headline labor numbers are fine — solid, even. And yet the Journal finds nearly 2 million Americans locked out of work for six months or longer, with long-term unemployment hitting white-collar workers hardest.
Both things are true at once, which is the story. The economy is hiring; it’s just not re-hiring. If you have a job, the market wants you. If you’ve been out half a year — especially from a desk job — the door has a way of staying shut.
The planning read is concrete. For clients in their 50s, an involuntary six-month gap is a bigger retirement risk than any market drawdown — it hits savings rate, employer match, and sequence timing all at once. It’s why the emergency sleeve is sized in months of income, not vibes.
The planning file, not the trading file. A six-month involuntary gap in your 50s damages a retirement plan more than most drawdowns — it hits savings rate, match, and sequence timing simultaneously. It’s the argument for the emergency sleeve being sized in real months of income and for the fee audit that keeps the plan cheap to carry while income is interrupted. The split-screen economy is a planning fact now, not a forecast.