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WSJ Greater New York
What's Next for Greater New York
The region's office vacancy, transit funding and migration trends are starting to sort into a clearer post-pandemic picture — and it is more bifurcated than the headlines suggest.
Ray Kelly · WSJ Greater New York · April 23, 2026
A two-tier recovery
Kelly's column draws on the most recent commercial real estate, MTA ridership and IRS migration data to argue that Greater New York is splitting into two recoveries: trophy buildings and prime corridors are at or above pre-pandemic occupancy, while B and C class buildings remain at structural vacancy levels that imply conversion or demolition.
Investment read
This is the cleanest version of the story we have been telling clients about REITs all year: own the operators with trophy concentration (we hold), avoid the operators with B/C exposure. We are not changing positioning today.
What This Means For Your Book
Hold trophy-REIT exposure, avoid B/C office REITs. No position changes today.
Bifurcated recovery rewards quality concentration. The middle of the office market is the part to avoid.
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