Capital Wealth
Model Portfolios
Start here · The North Star · 7 books · one rule

One book, seven sizes. Pick yours.

Every name from the current watch list, the same 15% reserve at every size, and the September letter’s dates deciding when it spends. $25K to $750K, plus North Star Income for a household drawing $6,000 a month. The sixty-seven specialty books below stay as the library.

Open the North Star → North Star Income, $1M → The Faith-Based books, screened → Not sure which size? Two-minute quiz →
The Library · 67 books · baked nightly

Pick your book. Everything about it opens right here.

One theme runs every book — AI is the new inflation: energy, gold, defense and the AI supply chain, with a standing hedge for the year growth stalls. Choose a strategy on the left, then your account size. The return, the chart, the holdings and the full table are all on this page.

Where we are on the cycle → The midterm shift → How the books are built → Not sure which? Two-minute quiz →
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A mountain range rising above a sea of clouds at sunriseCapital Wealth · The Books
Four Views Of The Market

Pick the market you believe in.

Four ways the next twelve months could go — inflation stays hot, the AI build-out keeps accelerating, rates come down gently, or growth stalls while prices don't. Each view has a portfolio built for it. Our money is on the first two — they're the same trade: the build-out is what's keeping prices hot (Theme 5, "AI is the new inflation").

Grocery prices — inflation
View 01

Inflation Stays HotOur view

Washington keeps spending into a strong economy, so prices keep climbing. Own energy, gold, defense and companies that can raise prices — not long-term bonds.

Read the full case →
AI data center
View 02

The AI Build-Out AcceleratesOur view · same trade

Hundreds of billions in data-center spending each year. Own the whole supply chain — chips, memory, power, networking — not just one stock.

Read the full case →
Housing gets its turn as rates ease
View 03

Rates Come Down Gently

Inflation cools, the Fed cuts, and everything that's been left behind — small caps, housing, real estate — finally gets its turn.

Read the full case →
Prices staying high
View 04

Growth Stalls, Prices Don't

The hardest market — a slowing economy with sticky inflation. The defensive book: staples, healthcare, gold and T-bills. This is the insurance policy.

Read the full case →
Election Watch
— days to November 3, 2026

Five roads to the midterms — and the book for each

One thing these five are not: five themes. The theme above decides what we own; the roads only decide how November plays out around it — five branches off one calendar, each pre-assigned a book. Three of them are just the theme at different temperatures.

S1
The Textbook MidtermRoad 1 · base path — the house calendar

Chop into October, relief after the vote. Defensive payers carry you in; the discretionary sleeve catches the turn.

S2
Gridlock Gets Priced Early

Divided government firms up early and the relief rally starts ahead of schedule. Broad quality re-rates; stay invested.

S3
Fiscal Heat Into The Vote

Campaign promises land on a hot economy — our standing theme runs hotter into the vote. Not a new view: the same trade, more of it — energy, gold, pricing power (Theme 1).

S4
The Growth Scare

The data cracks before the country votes. Staples, healthcare and T-bills do the work (Theme 4 is the standing hedge).

S5
The Contested Count

Recounts and litigation — a sharp volatility spike with a short historical half-life. The T-bill + gold reserve is sized for exactly this week.

Deep-dive briefs for each scenario — market path, what leads, what to watch — live on the Themes page →

Everything Else

Tools, reports & the protected-growth side

The reference material that used to live scattered down this page — one line each.

The Risk AtlasThe eight things that can actually go wrong — market, rate, inflation, geopolitical, credit, concentration, event, behavioral.Open → Which Sleeve Covers WhatThe eight Atlas risks against the books — which sleeve is carrying which risk, and the three squares we'd rather you hear from us.Open → The LettersOur daily read of the Journal — every edition and specialty deep-dive, searchable in the archive.Open → Portfolios by DecadeIn your 30s, 40s, 50s or 60s — how the aggressive-to-dividend mix moves, with the evidence.Open → Combination PortfoliosManaged market core + annuity-protected floor + income — every dollar gets one job.Open → Reading the NumbersSharpe, beta, drawdown, yield — every metric on these pages in plain English, with live examples.Open → Marked to Market — The Track RecordEvery call we publish, graded against the market — rights, wrongs, and open positions. Wrong rows never leave the page.Open → Investment Commentary №2 — The Report CardA decade of LPL outlooks graded against the market, their midyear vs. the July 29 close, and what the books did.Open → Investment Commentary №1Where is the market headed? Prediction-market odds, the theme tracker, and what the books did.Open → Sequence of ReturnsThe evidence note behind the 50s de-risking step — same average return, opposite outcomes.Open → How Many Stocks?The diversification evidence (Statman, Bessembinder) behind the income books' 25–80 names.Open → Watchlist & Recent ChangesWhat we're watching and the latest adds, trims and exits across the books.Open → Reports & Fact SheetsPrintable one-pagers per model — performance, risk stats and holdings.Open → 403(b) Vanguard FundsThe school-plan menus: five Vanguard passive mixes plus the CWLG custom tiers.Open → Full Data TablesThe complete table view — every model, every holding, every weight (client passcode).Open → MethodologyHow we build: the fundamentals-grounded construction standards behind every book.Open → Risk QuizTwo minutes to find which tier fits — conservative to aggressive.Open → Protected GrowthThe annuity side: floors and guarantees for the money that can't ride out a drawdown.Open → Retirement CalculatorProject savings, income and the gap — with and without the guardrails.Open →
The Literature

The papers behind the construction

The seating engine, the stat strip, and the book construction aren’t house inventions — they’re the financial-engineering canon (the same papers an MFE curriculum runs on), applied and cited. What each one grounds here:

Markowitz (1952)“Portfolio Selection,” Journal of FinanceWhy the books are sleeves, not stock lists. Risk lives at the portfolio level — mean-variance construction is why every book is built as weighted sleeves with a job each.
Sharpe (1964; 1994)CAPM, Journal of Finance · “The Sharpe Ratio,” JPMThe stat strip. The beta and Sharpe printed on every model page are these two papers, computed on our daily NAVs.
Black & Litterman (1992)“Global Portfolio Optimization,” Financial Analysts JournalQuestion 3 of the seating engine. Start from market equilibrium; tilt only where you hold a view, sized to conviction. Core books = the equilibrium; tactical and theme books = the view. That’s the whole house architecture in one paper.
Merton (1969) · Samuelson (1969)Review of Economics and StatisticsQuestion 2. Lifetime portfolio choice — risk aversion and horizon drive the allocation, which is why style is asked before any ticker appears, and why the Decades page exists.
Brinson, Hood & Beebower (1986)“Determinants of Portfolio Performance,” FAJAllocation first. The order of operations — sleeve weights before stock picks — because allocation explains most of the variance of returns.
Grossman & Zhou (1993)“Optimal Investment Strategies for Controlling Drawdowns,” Mathematical FinanceWhy Max DD is a first-class stat. Drawdown control as a formal constraint — the reason the cash reserve exists and the reason we print maximum drawdown next to return on every book.
Statman (1987) · Bessembinder (2018)JFQA · Journal of Financial EconomicsThe 25–80 names per book. Diversification’s marginal benefit and the skewness of single-stock returns — our evidence note walks both.
Santa-Clara & Valkanov (2003)“The Presidential Puzzle,” Journal of FinanceThe calendar books. Political cycles show up in return data — the academic backbone under the midterm series and the five roads.

Citations ground methodology, not predictions — none of these authors endorse these books, and the market grades us either way (Marked to Market).

Every portfolio page

The model books, the evidence behind them, and how they are built.

11 pages