Model Portfolios — Capital Wealth

Capital Wealth Model Portfolios

The House View · One Theme— days to November 3, 2026

The play to 2027.

AI is the new inflation. Washington keeps spending into a strong economy while the AI build-out soaks up chips, power and capital — so prices stay hot and the Fed stays boxed in. We own what benefits — energy, gold, defense, the AI supply chain — and we keep a standing hedge for the year growth stalls. One theme; every book on this page is an expression of it.

Input 01The LettersOur daily read of the Journal — what moved, why, and what it means for the books. Every edition, searchable.Read the letters → Input 02The CycleWhere this economy sits on the regime map, and the four ways the next twelve months can go.See the cycle →

Input 03The Risk AtlasThe eight things that can actually go wrong — and which sleeve covers each one.Open the atlas → The sleeve grid →

Now → OctDe-risk into the chop. Midterm years carry the deepest average intra-year drawdown of the four-year cycle. Nov 3Defend the vote. November has five roads; this calendar is Road 1, the base path — and the books cover the other four by construction: early relief (R2) stays invested, our theme running hotter (R3) is the hard-asset books, the growth scare (R4) is the standing hedge, and the T-bill + gold reserve is sized for the contested count (R5). No road changes the theme — only the calendar. Nov → 2027Re-risk the rally. The S&P 500 has been higher twelve months after every midterm election since 1946.

How the shelf fits the theme — Midterm Dividend books: the calendar expression · AI, hard-asset & theme books: the growth expression · Theme 4 Stagflation Defense: the standing hedge, always on · Core books ($50K–$500K): the whole theme at your account size.

Find Your Book · Ten Seconds

Three questions, one book.

Seated the way a quant desk does it — risk capacity (your size), risk aversion (your style), view alignment (run our theme, or just own the market) — then matched against each book’s realized volatility, Sharpe ratio and max drawdown. The financial-engineering math, in plain English.

1 · Account size

2 · Style

3 · The view

Not sure on style? The two-minute risk quiz answers question 2 for you. The match is a starting point, not advice — the fit conversation is fifteen minutes. Methodology: how we build →

Your match

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Capital Wealth · The Books

What’s actually in the books.

Ten representative positions and their target weights, taken from the model tables. Every weight below is the live model target in the book named beneath it — click any row to open that book’s full holdings.

LLYEli Lilly3.25%Aggressive Growth · $100K Tactical NVONovo Nordisk A/S3.00%Aggressive Growth · $100K Tactical AMGNAmgen3.50%Midterm Election Dividend · $50K NVDANvidia4.00%Theme 2 · AI Capex Supercycle MSFTMicrosoft4.00%Theme 2 · AI Capex Supercycle CVXChevron3.50%Aggressive Growth · $100K Tactical XOMExxonMobil3.50%Aggressive Growth · $100K Tactical GDGeneral Dynamics3.00%Non-Mag-7 · $100K Diversified LMTLockheed Martin3.50%Aggressive Growth · $100K Tactical SGOViShares 0-3M Treasury7.50%Theme 4 · Stagflation Defense

Representative only — the books hold far more than ten names, and weights differ by tier. See every holding in every model → · Why LLY and NVO sit on opposite sides of the same theme →

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A mountain range rising above a sea of clouds at sunrise

Capital Wealth · The Books

Four Views Of The Market

Pick the market you believe in.

Four ways the next twelve months could go — inflation stays hot, the AI build-out keeps accelerating, rates come down gently, or growth stalls while prices don't. Each view has a portfolio built for it. Our money is on the first two — they're the same trade: the build-out is what's keeping prices hot (Theme 5, "AI is the new inflation").

Inflation Stays HotOur view

Washington keeps spending into a strong economy, so prices keep climbing. Own energy, gold, defense and companies that can raise prices — not long-term bonds.

Read the full case →

The AI Build-Out AcceleratesOur view · same trade

Hundreds of billions in data-center spending each year. Own the whole supply chain — chips, memory, power, networking — not just one stock.

Read the full case →

Rates Come Down Gently

Inflation cools, the Fed cuts, and everything that's been left behind — small caps, housing, real estate — finally gets its turn.

Read the full case →

Growth Stalls, Prices Don't

The hardest market — a slowing economy with sticky inflation. The defensive book: staples, healthcare, gold and T-bills. This is the insurance policy.

Read the full case →

Election Watch

— days to November 3, 2026

Five roads to the midterms — and the book for each

One thing these five are not: five themes. The theme above decides what we own; the roads only decide how November plays out around it — five branches off one calendar, each pre-assigned a book. Three of them are just the theme at different temperatures.

The Textbook MidtermRoad 1 · base path — the house calendar

Chop into October, relief after the vote. Defensive payers carry you in; the discretionary sleeve catches the turn.

Gridlock Gets Priced Early

Divided government firms up early and the relief rally starts ahead of schedule. Broad quality re-rates; stay invested.

Fiscal Heat Into The Vote

Campaign promises land on a hot economy — our standing theme runs hotter into the vote. Not a new view: the same trade, more of it — energy, gold, pricing power (Theme 1).

The Growth Scare

The data cracks before the country votes. Staples, healthcare and T-bills do the work (Theme 4 is the standing hedge).

The Contested Count

Recounts and litigation — a sharp volatility spike with a short historical half-life. The T-bill + gold reserve is sized for exactly this week.

Deep-dive briefs for each scenario — market path, what leads, what to watch — live on the Themes page →

Everything Else

Tools, reports & the protected-growth side

The reference material that used to live scattered down this page — one line each.

The Risk AtlasThe eight things that can actually go wrong — market, rate, inflation, geopolitical, credit, concentration, event, behavioral.Open → Which Sleeve Covers WhatThe eight Atlas risks against the books — which sleeve is carrying which risk, and the three squares we'd rather you hear from us.Open → The LettersOur daily read of the Journal — every edition and specialty deep-dive, searchable in the archive.Open → Portfolios by DecadeIn your 30s, 40s, 50s or 60s — how the aggressive-to-dividend mix moves, with the evidence.Open → Combination PortfoliosManaged market core + annuity-protected floor + income — every dollar gets one job.Open → Reading the NumbersSharpe, beta, drawdown, yield — every metric on these pages in plain English, with live examples.Open → Marked to Market — The Track RecordEvery call we publish, graded against the market — rights, wrongs, and open positions. Wrong rows never leave the page.Open → Investment Commentary №2 — The Report CardA decade of LPL outlooks graded against the market, their midyear vs. the July 29 close, and what the books did.Open → Investment Commentary №1Where is the market headed? Prediction-market odds, the theme tracker, and what the books did.Open → Sequence of ReturnsThe evidence note behind the 50s de-risking step — same average return, opposite outcomes.Open → How Many Stocks?The diversification evidence (Statman, Bessembinder) behind the income books' 25–80 names.Open → Watchlist & Recent ChangesWhat we're watching and the latest adds, trims and exits across the books.Open → Reports & Fact SheetsPrintable one-pagers per model — performance, risk stats and holdings.Open → 403(b) Vanguard FundsThe school-plan menus: five Vanguard passive mixes plus the CWLG custom tiers.Open → Full Data TablesThe complete table view — every model, every holding, every weight (client passcode).Open → MethodologyHow we build: the CFP-grounded construction standards behind every book.Open → Risk QuizTwo minutes to find which tier fits — conservative to aggressive.Open → Protected GrowthThe annuity side: floors and guarantees for the money that can't ride out a drawdown.Open → Retirement CalculatorProject savings, income and the gap — with and without the guardrails.Open →

The Literature

The papers behind the construction

The seating engine, the stat strip, and the book construction aren’t house inventions — they’re the financial-engineering canon (the same papers an MFE curriculum runs on), applied and cited. What each one grounds here:

Markowitz (1952)“Portfolio Selection,” Journal of FinanceWhy the books are sleeves, not stock lists. Risk lives at the portfolio level — mean-variance construction is why every book is built as weighted sleeves with a job each.

Sharpe (1964; 1994)CAPM, Journal of Finance · “The Sharpe Ratio,” JPMThe stat strip. The beta and Sharpe printed on every model page are these two papers, computed on our daily NAVs.

Black & Litterman (1992)“Global Portfolio Optimization,” Financial Analysts JournalQuestion 3 of the seating engine. Start from market equilibrium; tilt only where you hold a view, sized to conviction. Core books = the equilibrium; tactical and theme books = the view. That’s the whole house architecture in one paper.

Merton (1969) · Samuelson (1969)Review of Economics and StatisticsQuestion 2. Lifetime portfolio choice — risk aversion and horizon drive the allocation, which is why style is asked before any ticker appears, and why the Decades page exists.

Brinson, Hood & Beebower (1986)“Determinants of Portfolio Performance,” FAJAllocation first. The order of operations — sleeve weights before stock picks — because allocation explains most of the variance of returns.

Grossman & Zhou (1993)“Optimal Investment Strategies for Controlling Drawdowns,” Mathematical FinanceWhy Max DD is a first-class stat. Drawdown control as a formal constraint — the reason the cash reserve exists and the reason we print maximum drawdown next to return on every book.

Statman (1987) · Bessembinder (2018)JFQA · Journal of Financial EconomicsThe 25–80 names per book. Diversification’s marginal benefit and the skewness of single-stock returns — our evidence note walks both.

Santa-Clara & Valkanov (2003)“The Presidential Puzzle,” Journal of FinanceThe calendar books. Political cycles show up in return data — the academic backbone under the midterm series and the five roads.

Citations ground methodology, not predictions — none of these authors endorse these books, and the market grades us either way (Marked to Market).