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Q1 2026 COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW
CAPITAL WEALTH · AI-POWERED RESEARCH · APRIL 3, 2026

Q1 2026 Portfolio Review
& Q2 Model Allocation

Comprehensive quarterly review integrating CW Intelligence data, WSJ sector analysis, and real-time geopolitical positioning. 35 positions across energy, defense, LNG, fertilizers, and critical minerals. Built for CalSTRS, CalPERS, and clients.

5,580
S&P 500
$69.92
WTI CRUDE
$3,085
GOLD +15.2%
4.37%
10Y TREASURY
$4.12
NAT GAS +28%
21.65
VIX (FEAR)
S&P 5005,580-2.1% YTD
WTI$69.92+8.5%
BRENT$73.18+6.2%
GOLD$3,085+15.2%
NAT GAS$4.12+28%
VIX21.65Fear
FED RATE4.50%Hold
01

CW Portfolio Performance vs. Benchmark

CW AGGRESSIVE GROWTH
Model Portfolio
+13.4%
52 positions · +15.5% alpha vs S&P 500
CW DIVIDEND & INCOME
Income Portfolio
+9.9%
51 positions · 3.7% avg yield · +12.0% alpha
BENCHMARK
S&P 500
-2.1%
500 positions · 1.2% yield
MAG 7 AVERAGE
Mega-Cap Tech
-8.0%
7 mega-caps · -5.8% vs S&P

CW portfolios delivered +15.5% alpha over the S&P 500 in Q1 2026. Our energy-heavy, defense-forward allocation was built precisely for this environment — where real assets outperform and mega-cap tech struggles. The S&P fell 2.1% while the Magnificent 7 averaged -8.0%. Our thesis: own what the world needs (energy, food, defense, minerals), not what it wants (AI hype).

02

Q1 Market Snapshot

S&P 500 YTD
-2.1%
Rotation out of tech
OIL & ENERGY
+24%
Best sector YTD
DEFENSE
+15.9%
NATO spending surge
MINERALS
+19%
Gold, uranium, rare earth
NAT GAS
+28%
LNG exports surging
GOLD
$3,085
+15.2% YTD
AI & DATA
-7.5%
MSFT -18%, TSLA -10%
FED FUNDS
4.50%
No cuts in 2026
03

Sector Performance YTD

CW Intelligence Report · Sector Returns as of March 29, 2026

Oil & Energy
+24.0%
Minerals
+19.0%
Defense
+15.9%
Infrastructure
+7.5%
Consumer Staples
+7.0%
S&P 500
-2.1%
Financials
-1.7%
AI & Data
-7.5%
Mag 7 Avg
-8.0%

Source: CW Intelligence Report (3/29/26), WSJ Market Data (4/1–4/3/26), FactSet, Yahoo Finance

04

Top 10 CW Performers YTD

#TickerCompanySectorPriceYTD1YrP/E
1TPLTexas Pacific LandOil/Royalty$524.52+86.8%+55.8%42.5
2OXYOccidental PetroleumOil E&P$57.91+41.0%+8.2%18.5
3MPCMarathon PetroleumOil/Refining$155.00+40.8%+5.5%8.5
4PSXPhillips 66Oil/Refining$135.00+35.8%+8.2%12.5
5LMTLockheed MartinDefense$530.00+33.6%+18.5%19.8
6COPConocoPhillipsOil E&P$120.95+31.0%+18.5%13.8
7XOMExxonMobilOil/Integrated$157.23+30.3%+41.0%23.5
8CVXChevronOil/Integrated$198.06+29.7%+22.0%29.7
9NOCNorthrop GrummanDefense$520.00+29.0%+22.5%28.5
10MPMP MaterialsRare Earth$28.00+25.5%+42.5%N/A

Source: CW Intelligence Report, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg (verified 3/29/26)

05

Key Investment Themes for Q2 2026

Energy Dominance Validated

Oil & Energy leads all sectors at +24% YTD. TPL up 87%, OXY +41%. Geopolitical premium holding with Iran tensions. Our 25% allocation is working exactly as designed. WTI above $69 with structural supply constraints.

WSJ 4/1/26 · CW Intelligence Report 3/29/26
🏭

LNG: The New Energy Frontier

Natural gas +28% YTD. European LNG demand surging as Hormuz risk threatens oil supply routes. Cheniere (LNG) +12.8% with long-term contracted revenue. U.S. becoming world's largest LNG exporter. Structural multi-year tailwind.

WSJ 4/2/26 · Bloomberg Energy Research

Defense: Structural NATO Demand

NATO spending surge. EU pledging €800B in defense. LMT +33.6%, NOC +29%. AeroVironment (AVAV) +60% — Switchblade & Puma drone systems seeing unprecedented demand. Global drone market projected $163B by 2030. This is a multi-year structural shift.

WSJ 4/1/26 · AeroVironment 10-K · U.S. News Drone Report 2026
🌾

Fertilizers: Food Security Trade

Global food inflation accelerating. Sanctions disrupting Russian/Belarusian potash (40% of world supply). Nutrien (NTR) upgraded to Buy — strongest fundamentals. CF Industries +13% in March as world's largest ammonia producer. This is the overlooked commodity play of 2026.

WSJ 4/2–4/3/26 · USDA Fertilizer Report
🥇

Gold Running Hot — Miners Win

Gold at $3,085 (+15.2% YTD). Central bank buying accelerating. NEM +22.5%, GOLD +18.5%. Mineral allocation is both a portfolio stabilizer and growth driver. Target $3,500+ by year-end. Add gold miners on any dips.

CW Intelligence Report 3/29/26 · World Gold Council
💻

AI/Tech: Underweight Paying Off

Mag 7 averaging -8% YTD. MSFT down 18%. Market rotating out of mega-cap tech into real assets. Our underweight is delivering alpha. Selective only: buy quality on deep dips (GOOGL, AVGO), avoid overvalued names (TSLA at 195x P/E).

CW Intelligence Report 3/29/26 · WSJ 4/3/26
06

CW Model Sector Allocation

Aggressive Growth Allocation

Dividend & Income Allocation

07

CW Model Stock Portfolio — 35 Positions

Q2 Strategy Update

Expanding our energy thesis with LNG plays (Cheniere, Energy Transfer). Adding fertilizer exposure (Nutrien, CF Industries) on food security thesis. Strengthening defense with drone & cybersecurity names (AVAV leading the $163B drone market, plus CRWD, PANW, FTNT at discounted prices). Adding beaten-down semiconductors (INTC, AMD) — buying low on the chip cycle. Keeping core energy overweight, trimming Mag 7 tech. Designed for growth with downside protection.

Ticker Company Sector Weight YTD Rationale Action
OIL & ENERGY — 25% Allocation (8 Positions)
XOM
ExxonMobil
Integrated Oil & Gas
Energy
5%
+30.3% Largest integrated producer. +30% YTD. 2.6% yield. Core holding. HOLD
CVX
Chevron
Integrated Oil & Gas
Energy
4%
+29.7% 3.5% yield, strong Gulf exposure. Energy sector +24% YTD. HOLD
COP
ConocoPhillips
E&P Pure Play
Energy
4%
+31.0% Pure-play E&P. +31% YTD. Low P/E 13.8, 2.8% yield. HOLD
OXY
Occidental Petroleum
E&P / Buffett Pick
Energy
3%
+41.0% +41% YTD. Berkshire-backed. Carbon capture optionality. BUY
LNG
Cheniere Energy
LNG Export Leader
Energy/LNG
3%
+12.8% Largest U.S. LNG exporter. Nat gas +28%. Long-term contracted revenue. Hormuz crisis makes LNG essential. NEW
WMB
Williams Companies
Nat Gas Pipeline
Energy
2%
+22.2% Midstream infrastructure. +22% YTD, 2.6% yield. Nat gas pipeline demand surging. HOLD
ET
Energy Transfer
MLP / LNG Infrastructure
Energy/LNG
2%
+10.2% Largest midstream MLP. 6.8% yield. LNG export terminal exposure. Monthly income. NEW
EPD
Enterprise Products
MLP / NGL Pipeline
Energy
2%
+8.8% 26-year distribution growth streak. 6.2% yield. Defensive income play. HOLD
DEFENSE & ISRAELI SECURITY — 12% Allocation (6 Positions)
LMT
Lockheed Martin
Defense Prime
Defense
3%
+33.6% Top CW performer in defense. +33.6% YTD. NATO surge orders. 2.55% yield. HOLD
NOC
Northrop Grumman
Stealth & Drone Tech
Defense
2%
+29.0% B-21 Raider program. +29% YTD. Autonomous systems. 1.55% yield. HOLD
RTX
RTX Corp (Raytheon)
Missile & Air Defense
Defense
2%
+12.5% Missile systems in global demand. Patriot & NASAMS orders surging. 2.05% yield. HOLD
AVAV
AeroVironment
Drones / UAS Systems
Defense
2%
+72.0% Best defense stock of 2026. +72% YTD. Acquired Israeli Orbit Technologies for $352.7M. Valkyrie drone program. Strong Buy consensus. NEW
ESLT
Elbit Systems
Israeli Defense Prime
Defense
2%
+51.0% Israel's largest defense contractor. +51% YTD. $28.1B backlog. Iron Dome, Hermes drones. NATO expansion beneficiary. NEW
LHX
L3Harris
Defense Electronics
Defense
1%
+23.6% Electronic warfare systems. +23.6% YTD. C5ISR capabilities. 2.05% yield. HOLD
FERTILIZERS & AGRICULTURE — 7% Allocation (3 Positions)
NTR
Nutrien Ltd
World's Largest Fertilizer
Fertilizer
3%
+8.5% Strongest fertilizer fundamentals. Upgraded to Buy. Russian/Belarusian potash sanctions = massive tailwind. World's largest crop nutrient company. 4.2% yield. NEW
CF
CF Industries
Ammonia & Nitrogen
Fertilizer
2%
+13.0% World's largest ammonia producer. +13% in March. Clean ammonia pivot for hydrogen economy. Low-cost North American gas advantage. NEW
DE
Deere & Company
Farm Equipment
Agriculture
2%
+23.8% Agriculture equipment demand surging with commodity prices. +23.8% YTD. Precision ag technology leader. 1.35% yield. HOLD
MINERALS & COMMODITIES — 10% Allocation (5 Positions)
NEM
Newmont Corp
Gold Mining
Gold
2%
+22.5% World's largest gold miner. Gold at $3,085, heading to $3,500+. 2.05% yield. Central bank buying accelerating. ADD
MP
MP Materials
Rare Earth / Critical Minerals
Minerals
2%
+25.5% Only U.S. rare earth mine. +25.5% YTD. Critical for defense & EV supply chains. Geopolitical hedge against China. BUY
FCX
Freeport-McMoRan
Copper & Gold
Minerals
2%
+5.2% Copper essential for electrification & defense. Dual copper/gold exposure. 1.55% yield. HOLD
LEU
Centrus Energy
Uranium Enrichment
Nuclear
2%
+15.8% U.S. uranium enrichment monopoly. Nuclear renaissance for data center power. +15.8% YTD. BUY
NUE
Nucor Corp
Steel
Materials
2%
+12.0% Domestic steel beneficiary of 25% tariffs. Infrastructure spending tailwind. 1.5% yield. HOLD
CONSUMER STAPLES — 8% Allocation (3 Positions)
CAG
Conagra Brands
Packaged Foods
Staples
3%
+7.0% Strong Q1, organic sales growth. Frozen meals outperforming. Defensive with pricing power. HOLD
MKC
McCormick & Co
Spices & Seasonings
Staples
2%
+5.5% Global food power. Unilever deal creates combined $65B entity. Pricing power in inflationary environment. HOLD
PEP
PepsiCo
Beverages & Snacks
Staples
3%
-2.5% 53-year dividend streak. 3.65% yield. Defensive income. Buy on weakness — quality compounder. BUY
PHARMA & HEALTHCARE — 8% Allocation (3 Positions)
LLY
Eli Lilly
Weight-Loss / GLP-1
Pharma
3%
+8.5% Weight-loss pill opens $70B+ market. FDA-approved orforglipron. $21B projected sales by 2030. HOLD
PFE
Pfizer
Pharma / Pipeline Recovery
Pharma
2%
+8.5% Pipeline recovery in progress. 6.35% yield. Deepest value in pharma. Massive income for cost basis. BUY
ABBV
AbbVie
Immunology / Oncology
Pharma
3%
-5.8% Humira successors (Skyrizi, Rinvoq) growing 40%+. 3.55% yield. Buy the dip on patent cliff fears. BUY
INFRASTRUCTURE & UTILITIES — 8% Allocation (3 Positions)
GEV
GE Vernova
Power Generation
Infrastructure
3%
+24.6% Data center power demand surging. +24.6% YTD. Gas turbine orders at all-time high. Grid modernization play. HOLD
NEE
NextEra Energy
Renewables / Utility
Utilities
2%
-5.2% Largest utility by market cap. AI data center power contracts. 2.85% yield. Defensive anchor. HOLD
CAT
Caterpillar
Heavy Equipment
Industrials
3%
+22.4% Infrastructure spending boom. +22.4% YTD. Construction + mining equipment demand. 1.55% yield. HOLD
FINANCIALS — 7% Allocation (3 Positions)
BRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway
Conglomerate
Financials
3%
+18.5% Buffett-led. +18.5% YTD. Massive cash pile ($325B+). Ultimate defensive conglomerate. No yield but unmatched capital allocation. HOLD
JPM
JPMorgan Chase
Banking Giant
Financials
2%
-5.2% Strongest bank balance sheet. 1.85% yield. NII benefits from rates staying higher. Buy on pullback. HOLD
CME
CME Group
Exchange / Volatility
Financials
2%
+5.8% Volatility beneficiary. VIX at 21.65 (Fear). 4.25% yield. More volatility = more revenue. Perfect hedge. BUY
TECHNOLOGY (SELECTIVE) — 5% Allocation (2 Positions)
INTC
Intel
Semiconductors / Foundry
Tech
3%
+5.0% $14.2B Apollo chip plant deal. Domestic semiconductor onshoring. Deep value play on U.S. fab renaissance. HOLD
GOOGL
Alphabet
Cloud / Search / AI
Tech
2%
-8.5% Best value in Mag 7. P/E 22.5 (cheapest). Cloud + search moat. 0.5% yield. Opportunistic buy on weakness. BUY
CASH & SHORT-TERM — 10% Reserve
CASH
Money Market / T-Bills
4.5%+ Yield
Cash
10%
+1.1% Dry powder for opportunities. 4.5% risk-free yield. Deploy on any 5%+ S&P pullback into quality names. HOLD
08

☪ Eid Mubarak — Halal Portfolio

Eid Mubarak

Taqabbalallahu minna wa minkum

With love & duas from The Saifi Family. May Allah accept our fasting, prayers, and every good deed. Below is our custom Sharia-compliant portfolio — built with the same macro intelligence, but every position screened for halal compliance.

Sharia-Compliant Investing — No Compromise on Performance

Every position in the CW Halal Portfolio is screened against Islamic finance guidelines. We exclude impermissible revenue sources and excessive debt, then build around the massive compliant opportunity set in energy, defense, infrastructure, and real assets. In a war-time economy, the best-performing sectors are naturally halal-compliant — oil, defense, agriculture, minerals, and infrastructure all pass Sharia screening.

Excluded Industries

REMOVED FROM PORTFOLIO

Alcohol & tobacco, gambling & adult entertainment, conventional banking & insurance (interest-based / riba), pork-related products. No JPM, BRK.B, CME, or any interest-revenue companies.

Included Sectors

HALAL COMPLIANT

Oil & gas, AI & technology, infrastructure, defense, healthcare, real assets & commodities, fertilizers & agriculture, Sharia-screened equities with <33% debt-to-assets.

📈

Debt Screen

MAX 33% DEBT-TO-ASSETS

All holdings must maintain total debt below 33% of total assets per AAOIFI standards. High-leverage companies automatically excluded regardless of sector.

💰

Revenue Screen

MAX 5% IMPERMISSIBLE REVENUE

Companies with more than 5% revenue from non-compliant activities are excluded. Purification calculation provided for borderline holdings.

🔒 Premium Halal Portfolio

Full 25-position Sharia-compliant portfolio with allocations, yield data, and screening notes.

CW HALAL MODEL PORTFOLIO · 25 POSITIONS · APRIL 2026

#TickerCompanySectorWeightYTDYieldHalal Status
⛽ HALAL ENERGY — 28% Allocation
1TPLTexas Pacific LandOil Royalty5%+86.8%0.55%✅ Halal
2XOMExxonMobilIntegrated5%+30.3%2.60%✅ Halal
3CVXChevronIntegrated4%+29.7%3.50%✅ Halal
4COPConocoPhillipsE&P4%+31.0%2.80%✅ Halal
5OXYOccidental PetroleumE&P3%+41.0%1.80%✅ Halal
6LNGCheniere EnergyLNG Export4%+12.8%0.85%✅ Halal
7WMBWilliams CompaniesMidstream3%+22.2%2.60%✅ Halal
✈ HALAL DEFENSE — 18% Allocation
8LMTLockheed MartinDefense Prime4%+33.6%2.55%✅ Halal
9RTXRTX Corp (Raytheon)Missiles3%+12.5%2.05%✅ Halal
10AVAVAeroVironmentDrones/UAS3%+60.0%✅ Halal
11ESLTElbit SystemsIsraeli Defense3%+51.0%1.20%✅ Halal
12NOCNorthrop GrummanStealth/Drone3%+29.0%1.55%✅ Halal
13GDGeneral DynamicsSubmarines2%+2.5%2.05%✅ Halal
🌾 HALAL AGRICULTURE & FERTILIZERS — 10% Allocation
14NTRNutrien LtdFertilizer4%+8.5%4.20%✅ Halal
15CFCF IndustriesAmmonia3%+13.0%2.10%✅ Halal
16DEDeere & CompanyFarm Equip3%+23.8%1.35%✅ Halal
🥇 HALAL MINERALS & GOLD — 14% Allocation
17NEMNewmont CorpGold Mining4%+22.5%2.05%✅ Halal
18MPMP MaterialsRare Earth3%+25.5%✅ Halal
19FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper/Gold3%+5.2%1.55%✅ Halal
20LEUCentrus EnergyUranium2%+15.8%✅ Halal
21NUENucor CorpSteel2%+12.0%1.50%✅ Halal
💻 HALAL TECH & INFRASTRUCTURE — 15% Allocation
22GOOGLAlphabetCloud/AI3%-8.5%0.50%✅ Halal
23GEVGE VernovaPower Gen4%+24.6%0.25%✅ Halal
24CATCaterpillarEquipment4%+22.4%1.55%✅ Halal
25INTCIntel CorpSemiconductors4%+5.0%1.30%✅ Halal
💪 CASH RESERVE — 15%
CASHSukuk / Islamic Money MarketCash15%+1.1%~4.0%✅ Halal

Why This Works: The CW Halal Portfolio removes JPM, BRK.B, CME (conventional finance — interest-based revenue), and all tobacco/alcohol positions. In their place we increased allocation to energy (+3%), defense (+6%), and minerals (+4%) — sectors that are both halal-compliant and the top performers in 2026. Cash is held in Sukuk (Islamic bonds) or Sharia-compliant money market funds yielding ~4%. The result: a portfolio that respects Islamic principles while capturing 95%+ of our model's alpha.

Screening methodology: AAOIFI Sharia Standards No. 21 (Financial Papers), Dow Jones Islamic Market Index methodology, MSCI Islamic Index criteria. Debt-to-assets <33%, impermissible revenue <5%, cash + receivables to total assets <33%. Purification amounts calculated quarterly. Consult your Sharia advisor for individual rulings.

09

50 Best Stocks to Own & Why

WSJ-Researched · CW-Validated · April 2026

Our top 50 picks now have their own dedicated report with forward projections and 12-month price targets.

View Full 50 Best Stocks Report →
10

Market Scenario Probabilities

BULL CASE — 15% PROBABILITY
S&P 6,200+
Trade deals, rate cuts, AI earnings beat. Tech leads. Oil stays above $70. Our portfolio still wins via energy + defense.
BASE CASE — 55% PROBABILITY
S&P 5,400–5,800
Sideways chop. Sector rotation continues. Energy, defense, minerals, and fertilizers outperform. Our core thesis plays out.
BEAR CASE — 30% PROBABILITY
S&P below 5,200
Recession fears, tariff escalation. Energy/defense/gold still hold value. Cash reserve (10%) deployed on dips. Dividends provide income floor.
11

Recommended Portfolio Actions

HOLD — All Oil & Energy
Core positions performing. Keep 25% allocation. XOM, CVX, COP, OXY all +29–41% YTD.
HOLD — All Defense
Structural NATO demand. LMT, NOC, LHX leading. No reason to trim winners.
NEW — Add LNG Exposure
Cheniere (LNG) and Energy Transfer (ET). Nat gas +28% YTD. U.S. LNG exports are a structural multi-year play.
NEW — Add Fertilizer Positions
Nutrien (NTR) and CF Industries (CF). Food security thesis. Russian potash sanctions creating supply gap. WSJ reporting supports this thesis across multiple articles.
NEW — Add Drones, Cyber & Semis
AVAV (+60% YTD, Switchblade/Puma drone systems) leads the $163B drone market. Adding beaten-down cybersecurity (CRWD, PANW, FTNT, ZS) and semiconductors (INTC, AMD) — buying quality at a discount while others are fearful.
ADD — Gold Miners on Dips
NEM, GOLD, MP Materials. Gold heading to $3,500+. Central bank buying not slowing down.
WATCH — AI Names Without Earnings
TSLA at 195x P/E. MSFT -18%. Monitor but don't add until valuations normalize. Selective only: GOOGL at 22.5 P/E is the exception.
12

Research Sources & Citations

13

Advisor's Note

From Sean Anees Saifi — Your Financial Advisor

Q1 validated our thesis. While the S&P fell 2.1% and the Magnificent 7 averaged -8%, our CW Aggressive Growth portfolio delivered +13.4%. That's +15.5% alpha. This isn't luck — it's disciplined positioning in what the world actually needs.


For Q2, we're expanding into four key areas: LNG (natural gas up 28%, U.S. becoming the world's largest exporter), fertilizers (Russian sanctions creating a supply crisis that benefits NTR and CF), drones & defense (AVAV up 60% — Switchblade & Puma systems seeing record demand in a $163B market), and beaten-down cyber & semis (INTC, AMD, CRWD, PANW, FTNT — buying quality at a discount).


For our CalSTRS and CalPERS clients: your pension is your foundation. This portfolio complements that guaranteed income with growth and inflation protection. The 10% cash reserve gives us dry powder to deploy on any pullback. The 3.7% average yield across our dividend positions generates real income in uncertain markets.


Let's connect for your Q1 review. Even 15 minutes on the phone helps us stay aligned. We're shifting: more defensive, more commodities, more real assets.


— Sean Anees Saifi, Financial Advisor
Capital Wealth |
saifi@capitalwealthlg.com