Nvidia is now the lender of last resort.
When the chipmaker starts guaranteeing the debts of its biggest customer, the word for that is not “partnership” — it is vendor financing, and vendor financing is how every capex boom in history has extended itself past the point where the arithmetic worked on its own. We hold Nvidia (NVDA) and we are not selling a great business; we are naming what changed. The equity now carries credit risk that used to live somewhere else, and the disclosure lives in a term sheet, not a balance sheet. Action: HOLD NVDA, no adds at this weight. The cleaner expressions of the build-out remain the power and plumbing — which is where the book’s utility and infrastructure sleeves already sit. And note who is renting the site: a government-controlled power allocation is industrial policy wearing a lease.
Priced out of Florida? Florida found more Florida.
Priced out of Florida? Florida found more Florida — and it is building three-bedroom ranch houses in the scrub.
The housing story is now two stories: a coastal affordability crisis and an inland supply response. Only one of them is investable.
The tobacco sleeve got a factory.
Philip Morris opened a $1.2 billion pouch factory in Colorado — double the budget it announced.
We bought the pouch transition, not the cigarette. Management is now spending like the transition is real.
United went shopping for Delta, and Delta said no.
United quietly approached Delta about a merger. Delta said no.
Delta walking away tells you the premium was not irresistible — and the read for the book is the pricing power, not the deal.
The AI wipeout keeps not showing up for work.
The AI wipeout keeps not showing up for work — hiring is turning up from railroads to tech.
For two years the bear case was that AI layoffs would land before AI productivity. The order came back reversed: the spending arrived first, and spending needs people.
The midterms will be traded, whether Wisconsin likes it or not.
Wisconsin may disqualify voters who bet on elections — and the midterms will be traded either way.
Prediction markets are becoming financial infrastructure with a fake-liquidity problem. This is the constitutional sequel.
China built a $484 billion chip company in a decade.
China built a $484 billion memory-chip company in a decade — now the most valuable listing on the mainland.
Two things are true at once: American AI leadership is real, and the moat is being dug from the other side too.
Everything is being turned into a token, again.
Everything is being turned into a token again — this time with the exchanges and the brokerages doing it.
The last tokenization wave sold you a casino; this one wants to re-plumb the building. The winners own the switchover, not the coin.
Bernie Sanders’s Vermont is trying free-market health reform.
Is padel the next pickleball?
American cities are running out of children.
