The Dow Just Hit a Record. The IPO Window Just Opened.

After two weeks of bond-driven indigestion, Friday gave us a small reprieve. The 10-year Treasury rallied four basis points to 4.584%, the Dow jumped 276 points to a fresh record at 50,285.66, and oil fell back below $97 a barrel. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 drifted higher on a low-volume week-closing tape, with the Nasdaq up just 0.10% and the S&P up 0.17%.

The story underneath is simple: capital is rotating, not selling. Tech-heavy names like Apple (AAPL) hit a 52-week high at $305.54. Arm Holdings (ARM) ripped 16.2% to a new high at $298.70 on agentic AI CPU exposure. CrowdStrike (CRWD), Bloom Energy (BE, up 9.1%), Enphase Energy (ENPH, up 17.3%) and GlobalFoundries (GFS, up 14.9%) all printed new 52-week highs. Goldman Sachs (GS) closed at $999.50 — one cent shy of four digits.

The catalyst nobody saw coming: International Business Machines (IBM) jumped 12% after announcing Anderon, a federally backed quantum-computing foundry. Roughly a dozen U.S. quantum companies are getting government investment, equity stakes, or both. We have IBM in the Conservative-Growth sleeve already; this is a real, monetizable thesis going from speculation to revenue.

And the SpaceX filing on Wednesday opened the IPO mini-boom. OpenAI and Anthropic are reportedly next. We can’t buy SpaceX yet, but the read-through is bullish for the entire growth-equity complex — particularly Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) on the chip side, and Palantir (PLTR) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) on the picks-and-shovels AI side. Stay long. Don’t chase, but don’t fight it either.

Even at $5 Trillion, Nvidia Looks Underpriced

The Wall Street Journal’s “Heard On The Street” column called Nvidia (NVDA) underappreciated despite the five-trillion-dollar market cap. We agree. The thesis isn’t that there’s no competition — AMD (AMD) and Arm (ARM) just demonstrated they can take real share at the CPU layer. The thesis is that the agentic AI pie is growing faster than competition can erode share.

Nvidia reported record quarterly sales and net income beating analyst expectations on Wednesday, then closed down 1.8% Thursday. That’s a classic “sell the news on a great print” setup — not a thesis change. Meanwhile, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) announced a $10 billion-plus capital commitment to Taiwan’s semiconductor sector to meet AI infrastructure demand. They’re using Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) to manufacture the next-generation Venice CPU. The AI capex cycle is real, persistent, and broadening.

Our AI infrastructure sleeve is built exactly around this thesis: Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Broadcom (AVGO), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Arm Holdings (ARM), GlobalFoundries (GFS), and the power complex — Vertiv (VRT), GE Vernova (GEV), Bloom Energy (BE), and Enphase Energy (ENPH). On a 12-month basis, this basket has been doing the heavy lifting for the book. We’re reinforcing AMD, ARM, and GFS today on their breakouts.

GLP-1 Drugs Just Got a Cancer Story. Lilly and Novo Are Both in the Book.

Four new studies, including ones out of Cleveland Clinic, MD Anderson, and the University of Pennsylvania, showed that patients on so-called GLP-1 drugs — Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic (NVO) and Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro (LLY) — saw real reductions in tumor progression, lower mortality, and roughly 25% less risk of being diagnosed with breast cancer. Separately, an Eli Lilly Phase 3 trial showed a new weight-loss drug delivered “clinically meaningful” results.

This matters because the obesity-drug bull case has been priced as a 2025–2027 story. A genuine secondary use-case in oncology takes the addressable market from “people who want to lose weight” to “people who have already had cancer” — an entirely different revenue tail. Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO) are both already in our Aggressive and Conservative-Growth sleeves. We’re reinforcing LLY today and adding NVO to the watchlist for international-exposure tier.

Outside healthcare, the Parker-Hannifin (PH) acquisition of Circor’s commercial & defense aerospace unit from KKR for $2.55 billion in cash adds another tier-1 industrial to the defense supply chain. PH joins the watch list at the Aggressive and Halal tiers. Tesla (TSLA) launching Full Self-Driving in China is a meaningful EV-China unlock; we hold TSLA and are reinforcing rather than adding.