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PERSONAL JOURNAL  ·  Caregiving & LTC  ·  Capital Wealth Newsletter

The Phone Call You Are Not Ready For

What long-term-care actually costs in 2026, the in-home care math most families never run, and the three documents your aging parents need on file before the phone rings.

Lead Story · The LTC Math

$116,000 A Year. That Is The Number.

The Genworth Cost of Care Survey puts the 2024 median annual cost of a private room in a U.S. nursing home at approximately $116,800. The same survey puts the median annual cost of a home-health aide at roughly $77,800. Both numbers have risen 4–5% annually for the last decade. They will keep rising. The math your parents’ generation ran in the 1990s no longer works.

The median U.S. private-room nursing-home cost in the Genworth 2024 survey came in at $116,800 per year. That is a national median — California, New York, Massachusetts and several other coastal markets sit 50–100% above that number. The semi-private-room median is $103,000. The assisted-living-facility median is $64,200. The home-health-aide median is $77,800. The adult-day-care median is $24,700.

These numbers compound. The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks long-term care inflation separately from headline CPI, and the long-run average has been roughly 4.5% annually — meaningfully above headline inflation. A $116,800 cost today, compounded at 4.5%, is $258,000 in 18 years. That is the number your 65-year-old client should be planning around if they think they might need care at 83.

Two more numbers worth knowing. The median length of stay in a nursing facility is approximately 24 months — meaning roughly half of stays are longer. The 90th-percentile stay is north of seven years, almost always associated with cognitive decline. For families with a history of dementia or Alzheimer’s in either parent line, the planning baseline should not be the median; it should be the 75th percentile.

Medicare does not cover long-term custodial care. Let me say it again because almost every retiree we meet with is initially confused on this point: Medicare does not cover long-term custodial care. Medicare covers up to 100 days of skilled nursing care after a hospital stay, with significant copays starting on day 21. After day 100, the family is on their own. Medicaid covers long-term care, but only after the family has spent down assets to roughly $2,000 in most states. Medicaid is welfare. Most middle-class families do not qualify until very late in the process, at which point the planning options have collapsed.

The Conversation

If your parents are over 70 and you have not had the LTC conversation, schedule it for the next visit. The conversation has three parts: (1) what is their long-term-care insurance situation, if any; (2) if they need care, can they afford it on current assets, and for how long; (3) who in the family is the designated decision-maker if they cannot. We will help model the math for any client’s parents at no cost. The conversation is hard. The crisis is harder.

Personal Journal · The Sandwich Generation

Caregiving Just Cost This Household $87,000. Their Retirement Plan Doesn't Know It.

AARP estimates that family caregivers in the U.S. provide an average of 24 hours of unpaid care per week, valued at roughly $600 billion in aggregate. For the typical adult-child caregiver, the personal financial impact is approximately $87,000 in lost income, foregone retirement contributions, and out-of-pocket spending over the caregiving years. Most retirement plans we see do not model any of this.

The AARP 2023 caregiving study put the typical family caregiver’s personal financial impact at approximately $87,000. That number breaks down as roughly $26,500 in lost wages from reduced work hours, $19,800 in foregone retirement-plan contributions, $7,400 in lost employer match, and $33,000 in out-of-pocket spending on parents’ care that did not get reimbursed by insurance or paid back from the parents’ estate.

The compounding effect is brutal. A 52-year-old who reduces work hours by 25% for four years to manage caregiving for an aging parent loses not only those four years of income but also four years of compounding on retirement contributions made in the highest-earning decade of her career. The 30-year compound impact on retirement assets typically lands between $250,000 and $450,000.

Most retirement-projection software has no field for this. It assumes the client continues working at full income through retirement age. When the caregiving years arrive — and they statistically do, for roughly two-thirds of households — the plan that looked adequately funded becomes a plan with a six- to nine-year shortfall starting in the late 70s of the caregiver. We model this explicitly for any client with parents over 65.

What I Tell Clients

If your parents are over 65, your retirement projection should include a caregiving-impact scenario. The base case assumes you keep working at full income. The realistic case models 3–5 years of reduced hours during likely caregiving years. The difference between the two projections is usually a six-figure delta to retirement assets at 85. That delta is conversation-worthy.

Personal Journal · The Documents

Three Pieces Of Paper Every Aging Parent Should Have On File

The phone call almost always comes at 2 a.m. The hospital wants a decision. If your parent does not have a durable power of attorney for healthcare, an advance directive, and a HIPAA release on file, the next 96 hours of your life will be substantially worse than they need to be.

1. Durable Power of Attorney for Healthcare. This is the document that names who can make medical decisions on your parent’s behalf if they cannot. It needs to be state-specific (the requirements differ between California, Texas, Florida, New York and so on) and notarized. It needs to be on file with their primary-care physician, their preferred hospital, and the adult child who will most likely take the 2 a.m. call. A copy should also be in the cloud somewhere accessible — a shared Google Drive folder works.

2. Advance Healthcare Directive (or Living Will). This is the document that specifies your parent’s wishes about life-sustaining treatment, resuscitation, feeding tubes, and end-of-life decisions. The decisions are hard. The decisions are infinitely harder when an adult child is making them at 2 a.m. with no document to refer to. Most aging parents are willing to have this conversation if the child initiates it — they have been waiting for permission.

3. HIPAA Release. Without this, the hospital cannot legally discuss your parent’s condition with you. With it, the conversations get substantially easier. The form is simple, free, and available from any primary-care office.

Three documents. One afternoon at the kitchen table. The cheapest insurance available in family finance.

Do This This Quarter

If your parents are over 70 and these three documents are not in place, schedule the conversation for the next visit. We have a one-page checklist clients can use to walk through it. Ask for the “Aging Parents Document Audit.”

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