Greg Ip's Capital Account column on A1 today — "A Stealth Boom In Manufacturing" — is the single most important long-form piece in Monday's paper. Ip argues that after 50 years of slow decline, U.S. manufacturing is finally turning, and the data is already in the high-frequency prints.
Ip's three data points, drawn from the February Industrial Production release and company filings:
- Factory production is up 2.3% year-over-year in February — the strongest print since 2022, led by aerospace, semiconductors, and EV/battery.
- Manufacturers' shipments rose 4.2% year-over-year through January, with orders up 6.0%. That order-to-shipment gap historically signals continued acceleration.
- Boeing delivered 72% more aircraft in Q1 2026 than Q1 2025. Airbus, up 28%. These are orders booked years ago finally clearing the supply chain.
Our Read — And What Gets Bid
Industrials as a sector have been a call option on this story; it's now becoming a live trade. Twenty-year trendlines are breaking.
Three Baskets To Own The Theme
LMT, RTX, NOC, GD, BA, TXT
Already 16% of our book. Boeing deliveries are the tell. Airframes + propulsion + avionics are the cleanest play.
ETN, PWR, VRT, GEV, EMR
Data-center buildout + reshoring both need the same components. VRT is our favorite single name.
AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, ASML, TXN
Every new fab in Arizona, Ohio, Texas runs on these tools. Multi-year capex visibility.
Client Book Action
For any client with a 2-5 year horizon we are adding VRT (Vertiv) and GD (General Dynamics) as single-name industrial adds this week.
Book Alignment — Ip Manufacturing Read
Defense 16% • Power/Infra 10% combine to 26% of the portfolio exposed to this story. VRT is the single-name we're adding to any client not yet long it.