From the 2019 Impeachment to Iran

Holman Jenkins traces a line from the 2019 impeachment through Ukraine, Gaza and now Iran, arguing that Democratic tactical choices have repeatedly handed Donald Trump strategic wins.

Jenkins argues the 2019 impeachment over the Ukraine aid call, by treating an inquiry into Hunter Biden as disqualifying, effectively immunized the Biden family from serious scrutiny for the entire 2020 cycle. The same pattern, he writes, is playing out on Iran: critics frame every presidential move as reckless, then look small when the feared escalation does not arrive.

Why It Matters For Markets

Oil rallied 2.8% Tuesday on Tehran's rejection of the latest round of nuclear talks. WTI closed at $92.13. Jenkins' read is that the administration has more room to maneuver than headlines suggest — the credible threat of force is doing work diplomatically, even as the talks stall.

For portfolios that is the difference between pricing in a sustained Strait of Hormuz premium (favorable for CVX, XOM, HAL) and pricing in an actual supply disruption (defensive bid in gold, Treasurys, defense primes).

Jenkins' Broader Thesis

The pattern: opposition picks a fight on weak ground, the fight collapses, and the incumbent banks the win. Ukraine aid in 2019. January 6 committee in 2022. Documents case in 2024. Iran policy in 2026.

Jenkins concludes the Iran file is different only in its stakes. A mistake here does not just cost a news cycle; it costs barrels, and potentially lives. But the political arithmetic, he writes, is the same: the loudest critics have a track record of being wrong, and the President knows it.