Mary Anastasia O'Grady's Americas column on A13 today — "The Trouble in Trump's Venezuela" — tracks the on-the-ground politics of the Venezuela regime-change story. For Capital Wealth clients, the Venezuela story matters for two reasons: it shifts global oil supply, and it is a test case for what "sanctioned-oil coming back online" looks like in a world where WTI is grinding back toward $90.
O'Grady's reporting points:
- Chevron is back in Venezuela under license. The Trump administration reauthorized Chevron's joint ventures in 2025. Production is ramping slower than expected — PDVSA infrastructure has decayed.
- Maduro is negotiating with both sides. Venezuela's oil exports are flowing to the U.S., China and India simultaneously. This is a balancing act, not a transition.
- The opposition is fractured. María Corina Machado remains the most credible opposition figure, but the electoral pathway is still blocked.
Our Read — Oil Complex Set-Up
The Iran/Venezuela/Saudi triangle is the most important oil-supply story of 2026. If Iran re-prices higher (Vance diplomacy fails) AND Venezuela output stalls (O'Grady thesis), we get a $95+ WTI print. Our 18% Energy theme is positioned for exactly this asymmetric setup.
Ways To Position
CVX, XOM, COP
Chevron has the most direct Venezuela exposure; Exxon's $24B Nigeria redirect (B1 WSJ) is the other play.
EOG, FANG, PXD (now legacy), OXY
If global barrels tighten on Iran + Venezuela, U.S. shale wins the marginal barrel trade.
SLB, HAL, BKR
Reopening Venezuelan wells requires massive service work. Services lags price by 2-3 quarters.
Book Alignment — O'Grady Oil Read
Energy stays at 18%. We are not cutting even as WTI approached $75 last month — the Iran/Venezuela supply asymmetry is why.