An investment desk keeps two kinds of files: the ones it writes to persuade, and the ones it keeps by accident. This page is the second kind. Every edition we publish carries the tape across the top of the masthead, which means that without meaning to, we have been building a time capsule of this market one close at a time.
The Record
Our editions have stamped the close 38 times since April 13, 2026 — the earliest dated file in the archive, which begins in April rather than March. This page is that record, unedited.
| Edition | DJIA | Nasdaq | 10Y | Oil | Gold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13 | 47,916.57 | 22,902.89 | 4.316% | $96.57 | — |
| Apr 14 | 48,218.25 | 23,183.74 | 4.29% | $99.08 | $4,742.40 |
| Apr 15 | 49,447.43 | 24,468.48 | 4.244% | $83.85 | $4,857.60 |
| Apr 22 | 49,149.38 | 24,259.96 | 4.290% | $92.13 | $4,698.40 |
| Apr 23 | 49,490.03 | 24,657.57 | 4.293% | $92.96 | $4,732.50 |
| Apr 24 | 49,310.32 | 24,438.51 | 4.323% | $95.85 | $4,705.10 |
| Apr 25 | 49,230.71 | 24,836.60 | 4.308% | $94.40 | $4,722.30 |
| Apr 29 | 49,141.93 | 24,663.80 | 4.352% | $99.93 | $4,591.50 |
| May 1 | 49,652.14 | 24,892.31 | 4.389% | $105.07 | $4,614.70 |
| May 2 | 49,499.27 | 25,114.44 | 4.377% | $101.94 | $4,629.90 |
| May 4 | 48,941.90 | 25,067.80 | 4.445% | $106.42 | $4,712.40 |
| May 13 | 49,760.56 | 26,088.2 | 4.462% | $102.18 | $4,677.60 |
| May 19 | 49,686.12 | 26,090.73 | 4.622% | $108.66 | $4,552.50 |
| May 20 | 49,363.88 | 25,870.71 | 4.668% | $107.77 | $4,506.30 |
| May 22 | 50,285.66 | 26,293.10 | 4.584% | $96.35 | $4,539.80 |
| May 23 | 50,579.70 | 26,343.97 | 4.584% | $96.35 | $4,539.80 |
| May 27 | 50,461.68 | 26,656.18 | 4.490% | $93.89 | $4,500.40 |
| May 29 | 50,668.97 | 26,917.47 | 4.454% | $88.90 | $4,499.30 |
| May 30 | 51,032.46 | 26,972.62 | 4.452% | $87.36 | $4,560.50 |
| Jun 3 | 51,307.79 | 27,093.90 | 4.455% | $93.76 | $4,489.10 |
| Jun 5 | 51,561.93 | 26,830.96 | 4.475% | $93.04 | $4,475.80 |
| Jun 6 | 50,866.78 | — | 4.537% | — | $4,337.10 |
| Jun 9 | 50,786.01 | 25,929.66 | 4.550% | $91.30 | $4,335.90 |
| Jun 11 | 49,918.78 | 25,169.50 | 4.541% | $90.03 | $4,108.20 |
| Jun 12 | 50,848.75 | 25,809.66 | 4.54% | — | $4,090.30 |
| Jun 16 | 51,671.03 | 26,683.94 | 4.468% | $80.75 | $4,328.00 |
| Jun 27 | 51,920.62 | 25,358.60 | 4.391% | $71.92 | $4,030.50 |
| Jul 2 | 52,305.24 | 26,040.03 | 4.474% | $68.58 | $4,068.30 |
| Jul 3 | 52,900.07 | 25,832.67 | 4.477% | $68.69 | $4,112.70 |
| Jul 7 | 53,055.91 | 26,121.16 | 4.479% | $68.55 | $4,155.10 |
| Jul 8 | 52,925.15 | 25,818.69 | 4.529% | $70.44 | $4,145.30 |
| Jul 9 | 52,348 | 25,871 | 4.567% | $73.52 | $4,071 |
| Jul 10 | 52,487 | 26,207 | 4.539% | $72.08 | $4,131 |
| Jul 14 | 52,498.64 | 25,873.18 | 4.610% | $78.14 | $3,997.00 |
| Jul 17 | 52,552.97 | 25,881.95 | 4.568% | $78.95 | $3,985.60 |
| Jul 23 | 52,224.64 | 25,837.21 | 4.628% | $84.91 | $4,071.10 |
| Jul 30 | 52,210.08 | 24,932.08 | 4.640% | $82.61 | $4,074.50 |
| Jul 31 | 51,594.14 | 24,442.94 | 4.621% | $84.46 | $4,034.70 |
What the Dow Says
From 47,916.57, stamped on April 13, 2026, to 51,594.14 on the latest edition, the index has ground 7.7% higher with violent single days in both directions — a late-cycle tape: trend intact, breadth narrowing, four-figure down days arriving on policy sentences rather than earnings.
What the 10-Year Says
The whole period lives inside a 4.244%–4.668% band around 4.6%. Five months of war, tariffs and a Fed argument moved the long rate almost nowhere: no help is coming, and no crisis is priced. Position for carry, not rescue — bills over duration.
What Oil Says
Oil’s archive arc runs $96.57 in mid-April, down to $68.55 by early July as peace flickered, then back into a war regime of $79–$89. The floor moved up in May, gave way in June, and was rebuilt by the Hormuz closure — which is why we own the hedge rather than trade the level. The new Heard-on-the-Street wrinkle is a softer ceiling (China demand flexibility). Hedge-sized energy, no bets.
What Gold Says
The archive’s first gold stamp is $4,742.40 — mid-April, the tariff-shock spike; it has since settled to $4,034.70. But “settled” means holding above $4,000 while the ten-year pays 4.6%. The spike premium came out; the insurance bid never left. Our theme books carry it (IAU, GLD in the stagflation sleeve) for exactly that reason.
The Call
Direction into August, stated plainly: grinding index highs with harder air pockets; no duration rescue; war-floored, China-ceilinged oil; insurance bid persists. The book’s tilts — defensive core, value-end consumer, aerospace, energy hedge, receipts-over-invoices AI — are that call in position form.
Read the two editions this record ends on: Part I and Part II. Sean’s letter on what we are carrying into August is the same call in prose, and the portfolios are the same call in weights.
The record above is the argument. A Dow that has ground higher while its worst days arrive on policy sentences, a long rate that has refused to move through a war, an oil floor that reset in May, and an insurance bid that never left — that is a late-cycle tape, and late-cycle tapes reward construction over conviction.
Action: the positioning is unchanged and now has five months of our own data behind it. REINFORCE the defensive core and the bill ladder; HOLD the energy hedge at sleeve weight without adding on strength; AVOID long duration while the committee argues about hikes. Nothing on this page is a forecast. It is the record, and the record is the reason the weights look the way they do.
- SGOV · Bills over duration · the 10-year band says carry, not rescue
- TLT · Long duration · avoid
- CVX · Energy hedge · hold at sleeve weight
- IAU · Gold · stagflation-sleeve insurance
- GLD · Gold · stagflation-sleeve insurance
The two editions this record ends on: The Week in Review, Part I · Part II · Sean’s August themes letter