AI Stopped Being A Stock Story And Became An Inflation Story.

Here’s the thread that tied the whole week together: the AI build-out — roughly $741 billion of hyperscaler capex this year, on the way to an estimated $8 trillion by 2032 — is no longer just a reason stocks go up. It’s now a reason your costs go up. Memory-chip prices have quadrupled in a year, Apple (AAPL) just raised Mac and iPad prices, and Goldman sees consumer electricity climbing about 6% a year. That is not a one-time shock that washes through; it is a multi-year tailwind for prices.

We’re positioned for higher-for-longer, not a cutting cycle that may not arrive: durable cash flow, short-duration Treasuries that actually pay, the picks-and-shovels of the build-out, and a gold sleeve as ballast. Read the lead story →

Old Oil Meets New AI: Chevron Will Power A Microsoft Data Center For 20 Years.

Chevron (CVX) struck a 20-year deal to sell electricity to Microsoft (MSFT) for what could become one of the country’s largest AI data centers in the Permian Basin — a 2.7-gigawatt gas-fired complex dubbed ‘Project Kilby.’ The AI build-out doesn’t just reward chipmakers; it reroutes through the dull, dividend-paying companies that own the gas, the pipes, and the power.

An old-economy major signing two decades of contracted cash flow with a trillion-dollar tech buyer is exactly the boring-meets-AI story that belongs in a retirement portfolio — the megatrend without paying 40 times earnings for it. Read the full energy note →

The Greenspan Put Just Died At 100. Don’t Build A Retirement Around A Rescue.

Alan Greenspan died at 100, and with him the comfortable three-decade faith that the Fed will always ride in to rescue a falling stock market. With inflation at 4.1% and a new chair, Kevin Warsh, ‘unambiguously’ committed to killing it, that backstop is thinner than most investors assume — nearly half of Fed officials see rates rising by year-end.

Plan as if nobody is coming to save the portfolio. That means short-duration Treasuries that pay, a cash-flow tilt, and a little gold as ballast — not a duration bet on cuts that may never come. The full Fed read →

A $35 Billion Restock: Why The Defense Sleeve Earns Its Keep After A War.

The Pentagon awarded Lockheed Martin (LMT) a contract worth up to $35 billion to rebuild the THAAD interceptor stockpile drawn down by the Iran war — following a $4.7 billion Patriot award in April. Each interceptor costs more than $12 million, and the orders turn a real shooting war into multi-year, government-funded backlog.

That visible, durable revenue is what supports the dividends and buybacks income investors actually live on. The footnote to watch: both contracts are ‘undefinitized,’ meaning Congress still has to fund them. Read the defense note →

Retiring Before 65 Just Got More Expensive: The ACA Subsidy Cliff.

Nearly four million people have already dropped Affordable Care Act coverage this year after enhanced federal subsidies ended — enrollment fell to roughly 19.2 million from about 23 million, with some premiums jumping 100% or more. This lands hardest on the 60-to-64 crowd who bridge to Medicare on a marketplace plan.

If you’re planning to retire before 65, the health-insurance line item just got a lot less predictable — and ‘I’ll just buy a marketplace plan’ is no longer a cheap assumption. We build the gap-year cost into the plan now, not at open enrollment. Read the retirement note →

A 14% Yield Is Not A Gift. It’s A Warning Label.

Spencer Jakab dismantled Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR), the bitcoin-hoarding company funding its buying with a variable-rate perpetual preferred nicknamed ‘Stretch’ — its coupon raised seven times to 11.5%, its effective yield now near 14%, junk-debt territory, on a company that produces almost no cash of its own and already crashed 99% once.

When a ‘passive income’ pitch shows up in your feed, the yield is the warning label, not the brochure. Our income comes from diversified cash-flow payers, not reach-for-yield instruments named after how far they’re stretching. Read the caution →