The flu came early this year. Positive tests for this time of year are the highest in a decade, according to the CDC. Cases popped up on the West Coast in late August, about two months ahead of schedule. "We're seeing January-level transmissions currently," one University of Washington microbiologist said of the West Coast. The practical takeaway is simple: get your shot now.
The season is dominated by H1N1, the same type behind the 2009 pandemic. This year's version carries a specific mutation, called G155E, that's likely driving the early spread. Even people who've been exposed to H1N1 before may have less natural immunity to it. A biologist at a Seattle cancer center studied this year's strain. People aged 15 to 25 appear to have the weakest antibodies to it, based on early lab work not yet peer reviewed. In California, more than 15% of flu tests are coming back positive, against about 1% this time last year.
Which shot, and does it still work
Yes, the shot still helps, though how much won't be clear until later in the season. The mutation emerged after drugmakers set this year's vaccine, so the match is likely imperfect. Last season the shot was 31% effective at preventing flu-related hospitalizations across all ages. Several options exist. Standard egg-based shots from the big makers. A lab-made version that one study linked to lower hospitalization rates. Federal officials recommend higher-dose shots for people 65 and older, who face the highest risk. And a new mRNA flu vaccine is now approved for adults 50 and older, which can be updated faster if officials decide the strains need changing.
The flu normally starts in the Southeast. This year it started on the West Coast. A Seattle children's hospital was treating kids with flu in October at a volume more typical of December.
Our read
This is a Health Costs story, and the planning point is small and unglamorous. The flu shot is one of the highest-return, lowest-cost things in a household budget, and an early season raises the return. We're not doctors and this isn't medical advice. But the money math is plain. A severe flu that lands someone in the hospital costs money even with good insurance, in deductibles and copays and missed work. The shot is usually free.
Here's the check this week. Most insurance plans, and Medicare Part B, cover the flu shot at no out-of-pocket cost when you get it in network, at a pharmacy or doctor's office. So two quick steps. Confirm your pharmacy is in your plan's network, which keeps it free. And if you're 65 or older, ask for a higher-dose shot by name. Those are the ones recommended for your age. If you're a caregiver or grandparent around young kids, the early season is a reason to go sooner rather than later. This is the rare case where the right financial move and the right health move are the same cheap thing. If you're not sure what your plan covers, that's a quick thing to check together.