Kevin Cole runs Mid Oregon Credit Union. His latest health-cost projection said the company would spend 38% more on coverage in 2027. "It was horrific, much worse than I expected," Cole said. All 170 or so people who work there are about to feel it.
Cole's story is the country's, Anna Wilde Mathews reports in Friday's Journal. The nonprofit KFF runs the broadest yearly survey of employer health coverage. This year the average family plan crossed $28,000, up 5%. The part workers pay from their paychecks rose faster, up 9% to $7,471. For single coverage, the front-page chart shows the worker's share up 16.11% in a year, while the employer's rose about 3%. More of the bill is moving to workers, and faster each year.
Cole made the most common move and a couple more. He raised workers' premium payments in step with the total increase. He raised deductibles. He added a new high-deductible plan. All of that is expected to trim the 2027 increase by only about 2 percentage points. Among large employers, 44% raised the worker's share of the premium this year, KFF found, the most popular move. And 21% raised deductibles or cost sharing for most services. Gary Claxton of KFF says that tells you something about the job market. Employers figure workers won't leave over it. "You don't think they're going to go anywhere," he said.
Why next year looks worse
Benefits consultants and actuaries say 2027 is likely to be worse, after two or three years of steep rises. Hospitals have raised some prices and now use AI tools to boost their billing. Costly drugs for cancer and weight loss keep adding to the bill. Some employers have dropped coverage of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. Among the biggest firms, the share whose main plan covers them fell to 33% this year from 43% in 2025. Some fund pretax accounts workers can use to buy the drugs instead. A Denver company with about 50 workers budgets a 20% increase on plans it renewed July 1. It moved to bigger deductibles, including one set at $6,000 for a single employee. That plan costs under $100 per biweekly paycheck, and the company adds $50 a month in health stipends. Elliot Rosenblum of Symphony Consulting warns that in lower-wage work, like retail, more people may go without coverage.
Our read
This is a Health Costs story, and Cash Flow M5 is where it hits. A 9% jump in your premium share plus a bigger deductible is a pay cut nobody announced. The trade many employers now offer is a lower premium for a higher deductible. That can work, if the deductible money sits somewhere real. Many high-deductible plans qualify for a health savings account. Money goes in pretax, grows untaxed and comes out untaxed for qualified medical bills. It's one of the best tax deals in the code for people who can fund it. Our verdict is hold. There's no stock here, just your paycheck.
Here's the connection to your own money. Your open-enrollment packet is landing about now, and this is the week to do the math. For each plan you're offered, add a year of premiums to the out-of-pocket maximum, the most you'd owe for covered in-network care in a year. That's your worst-case year, and it's the number to compare. If a plan comes with an HSA, check whether your employer puts money in it. If someone in your family uses a GLP-1 drug, check the plan's drug list, called the formulary, before you sign. If the numbers don't fit your budget, bring the packet to a review.