Start with the grocery cart. A family of four on a moderate budget paid $306.50 a week when the second term began. In August they paid $320.50. The Journal's Terell Wright and Drew An-Pham put that number next to a dozen others on Thursday, Oct. 22. We read the page as a household scorecard, nothing more.
Food is up 4.4% since January 2025, faster than overall inflation. The culprits are specific. Ground beef went to $6.79 a pound from $5.55, because the cattle herd shrank and drought hurt grazing. Eggs went the other way, down to $2.27 a dozen from $4.95, after the bird-flu spike faded. Bread cooled a little.
Fuel is the big one. Regular gas went from $3.11 a gallon to $4.26 as of Wednesday, Oct. 21. That's 37% more, by the Oil Price Information Service's count. Diesel is up 72% since January 2025, to $6.25. That price rides along in trucking and groceries. Moody's economist Mark Zandi puts the Iran war's cost at more than $2,000 for the average household.
Borrowing got heavier, saving got richer
The 30-year mortgage hit 7.4% this month, the highest of the second term. The median monthly payment went from $2,112 to $2,196. The average new car lists for $52,014, up from $50,111. The average amount financed hit $44,729 in September. The typical new-car loan now runs 70.5 months, about a month longer than in January 2025. On the other side of the ledger, the average 401(k) went from $127,100 to $155,800 by the second quarter. The S&P 500 is up 30% with dividends from the close before Inauguration Day through Oct. 16. Babies born from 2025 through 2028 can get a $1,000 seed in a Trump Account, if a parent opens one. It goes into an S&P 500 fund that's up 2.7% since launch.
Wednesday's front page added the money in the mail. The government sent $500 checks to nearly a million people on Oct. 1, over what the administration called excessive ACA fees. Medicare enrollees got $90 on Oct. 8. A proposed $5,000 check for every adult is tied to Republicans keeping their majority in Congress. Voters decide on Nov. 3.
Our read
This is Cash Flow, M5. We read the scorecard as a list of prices, and every household has its own version. It passes no verdict on anyone. The two lines that bite hardest are fuel and borrowing. A 70.5-month car loan and a 7.4% mortgage are decisions that last for years. The line that helps is the 401(k). The market's rise lifted it, and that helped savers who stayed invested through the rough patches. Count only money that has actually arrived, like the $500 or the $90 if you got one. A check that depends on a vote isn't in anyone's budget yet.
Your check this week is your own scorecard, on one sheet. Pull last week's grocery receipt, your latest 401(k) statement and the car-loan payoff page. Write three numbers next to the Journal's. What you spend on groceries a week, your 401(k) balance now versus January 2025, and the months left on the car loan. If the loan runs past 60 months, or the grocery line grew faster than your pay, that's the line to fix first. A good umbrella gets bought on a dry day, and we're glad to go over your sheet with you at a review.