Caitlin Giles put down a deposit on a RAV4 in May. The New Jersey medical assistant expected a three-week wait. It stretched to three months. Then the dealer phoned. She raced home from work and woke her son so he could drive her over. "I need that car," she recalls telling him. She isn't alone. Toyota (TM) dealers have about four days of RAV4s on their lots. In September the industry average was 51 days.
Christopher Otts and Owen Tucker-Smith explain the shortage in Thursday's Journal. Last year Toyota kept building the 2025 RAV4 deep into the fourth quarter as it neared a U.S. sales record. That delayed the retooling for the all-new 2026 model. Two Ontario plants went down for major retrofits in January and February. The Kentucky plant got a late start after Toyota changed its mind about phasing the RAV4 out there. North American production has plunged 30% through September, per AutoForecast Solutions. U.S. sales are down 29% this year. Toyota sold a record 479,288 RAV4s last year. It won't match that this year.
The plants have run flat out since April, at more than 30,000 RAV4s a month. It isn't enough yet. At Longo Toyota near Los Angeles, Toyota's biggest U.S. dealership, about 500 customers wait six to eight weeks. Many dealers can't offer a test drive. Some buyers give up. Dan Rubin paid a $1,000 deposit this month and learned he was No. 48 on his Vancouver dealer's list. His 2014 Mazda had about 130,000 miles and needed repairs. He took his deposit back and chose a Toyota Sienna minivan he could get sooner.
Why everyone wants one
Gas prices did the rest. The 2026 RAV4 is the first sold only as a hybrid or plug-in hybrid. Nearly all of them get more than 40 miles a gallon combined. Toyota's North America sales chief, Damon Rose, said the company didn't see the gas-price jump coming. Demand for the old model "almost defied logic," he said. The shortage cost Toyota a title, too. For years no vehicle outside the pickups outsold the RAV4 in America. This year the Honda CR-V took that crown, as a correction in Friday's paper made clear. And Toyota's run at passing General Motors (GM) in U.S. sales got harder.
Our read
This is a Cash Flow M5 story. Toyota is held at weight in 6 books; nothing added. The shortage is a factory story for Toyota and a money story for you. A deposit on a wait list is often a choice you can take back, as buyers in this story did. The question is what the wait costs. Repairs on an old car you planned to replace. Gas at a high price when the new one would get 40 miles a gallon. Less room to bargain when the dealer has a long list behind you. Sometimes the second choice you can drive home this month beats the first choice months from now. Our verdict is hold.
Here's the connection to your own money. If a new car is on your list for the next year, pull up the car line in your cash-flow plan this week. Write down three things. What the old car's repairs cost you each month. What the new car's payment and insurance would be. And whether your deposit is refundable, in writing. Then set a date. If the car isn't there by then, keep the old one running or take the second choice, as Dan Rubin did with his minivan. Bring those numbers to a review and we'll run them with you.