Elon Musk had a lot to sell on Wednesday, Oct. 21. Humanoid robots shipping to other companies by the end of next year. Robotaxis that he says will soon bring in real money. Five million cars a year by 2030. Then came the quarter Tesla (TSLA) actually reported. Revenue was flat at $28 billion. Adjusted profit slipped 4% to $1.7 billion. And the company cut this year's spending plan to about $20 billion from $25 billion.
The car business is shrinking a bit. Tesla sold 486,532 vehicles in the quarter, down 2%. Car revenue fell 3% and energy storage fell 16%. Growth came from what Tesla calls services and other. Revenue from Full Self-Driving subscriptions, robotaxi rides and charging rose 33%. A record 75% of deliveries came with a paid FSD subscription. Tesla counts 1.7 million of them, up from one million a year earlier. "People are buying FSD with a car attached, not the other way around," Musk wrote on X.
The spending cut is the quiet news. Capital spending is the money a company puts into factories and equipment. Tesla's came to $4.7 billion in the quarter. Wall Street had looked for a rise from $5.8 billion the quarter before. It's still more than double a year earlier. For all of 2026, Tesla now plans about $20 billion, not the $25 billion it had estimated. Musk still sees "tens of billions" a year by 2028. The Journal's story said the stock fell 3.5% after hours. The paper's late-trading table showed a smaller dip, 1.67%. On Thursday it fell 3.1%, Friday's paper reported, on a rough day for tech.
The pitch and the present
Optimus is in early production in Fremont, Calif. Musk says it needs AI training before it's useful. He sees the best early jobs as heavy, dangerous or repetitive work. He said Tesla is working to get a two-seat Cybercab to private and business buyers by year-end. He has said it will sell for under $30,000. The redesigned Roadster is slated for 2028. Musk wouldn't touch the SpaceX merger question. "Tap dancing through a minefield there," he said.
Europe, meanwhile, gave Tesla a real number. Mauro Orru reported in Friday's Journal that Tesla's September registrations in Europe jumped 72.5% from a year earlier, to 68,776 cars. August had grown just 4%. The whole battery-electric market grew nearly 60%. BYD's registrations nearly doubled to 49,953. Volkswagen's fell 2.9%.
Our read
This is an Investments/Risk IN04 story. Tesla is held at weight in 13 books; nothing added. Our read is to price what's in hand. What's in hand is flat revenue, a 4% profit dip, fewer cars sold and a smaller spending plan. What's on the horizon is robots, robotaxis and a cab priced under $30,000. Those may come. The stock's price seems to assume a lot of them do. We don't trade a holding on one call. We hold Tesla at its weight and let the quarters do the talking. Our verdict is hold.
Here's the connection to your own money. If you own Tesla, directly or through an S&P 500 fund, part of what you paid for is robots and robotaxis that haven't shipped. That's fine in a small dose. This week, list your stocks and mark each one 'earns now' or 'might someday.' Then add up the 'might someday' pile. Ask whether a 50% drop in that pile would move your retirement date or a big purchase. If it would, the pile is too big for your plan. Bring the list to a review and we'll size it together.