For a stretch this summer, bitcoin was the wallflower at the party while AI stocks and prediction markets hogged the dance floor. Then August hit, and bitcoin staged its biggest rally since 2023. It jumped about 25% to $80,000 between Aug. 19 and Aug. 25, then topped $82,000 as September began. By Monday afternoon it’d slipped back to around $79,000. So, is the party over?
What lit the fuse
The Journal points to three sparks. First came a short-covering frenzy — traders who’d bet on falling prices scrambling to buy and close those bets. It followed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s Aug. 19 announcement that the government would at least double its buyback of long-dated debt — news that fueled bets against the dollar.
Second, the same day, President Trump pushed Congress to pass a “fair version” of the digital regulatory act. Third, investors warmed to risk again, and crypto exchange-traded funds pulled in strong inflows in August.
The $80,000 wall
Since then, bitcoin keeps stalling at $80,000, and investors are asking whether the rally has fizzled, at least for now. Stephen Coltman, head of macro at 21Shares, which offers crypto-based exchange-traded products, says assets like crypto are hard to value and often hit seemingly arbitrary barriers. Right now, he says, investors see $80,000 as a chance to sell.
It’s also a long way from bitcoin’s peak of around $125,000 in October 2025, and some analysts doubt it’ll get back there soon. Others say a Treasury willing to tolerate a weaker dollar, plus shifting regulation, could push bitcoin and its peers higher. Nobody gets to know in advance which camp is right.
An illustration, using the prices above: a $5,000 stake bought at around $125,000 would be worth about $3,160 at $79,000, roughly 37% less. That’s why speculation should be sized as speculation — small enough that a drop like that bruises your mood, not your retirement date.