The average stock won October. The S&P 500 fell 0.9%, its equal-weight twin rose 4.9%, the widest gap since 2009.

In October the S&P 500 fell 0.9%. The same 500 stocks, counted equally, rose 4.9%. A regular index fund leans on its five biggest names. In October that leaning cost it.

By Capital Wealth · Published Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · Source: The Wall Street Journal, Tuesday, November 3, 2026, whose market figures are the Monday, November 2 close (Markets)

Key Points

The S&P 500 ended October down 0.9%. The equal-weighted S&P 500, which counts every company the same, ended up 4.9%.
The Journal calls it a postcrisis record. Equal weight last did this well against the index in April 2009, when investors were avoiding Exxon Mobil, Wal-Mart, Microsoft, AT&T and Johnson & Johnson.
The Nasdaq ended October 5.3% lower, its worst month since March 2025. Monday, Nov. 2 opened higher and gave it back by the close: S&P 500 7,541.40, down 0.51%, Nasdaq down 1.07%, Dow up 0.41%.
The options market expects the S&P 500 to move about 1%, either way, on Wednesday, Nov. 4. Deutsche Bank looked at 23 midterm years and found the S&P 500 rose in the fourth quarter in 21 of them.
The equal-weight S&P 500 fund (RSP) is up 14.8% this year by the Journal's table, against 10.3% for the plain S&P 500 fund (SPY).

4.9%

equal-weighted S&P 500 in October

0.9%

the S&P 500's October loss, same 500 stocks

5.3%

the Nasdaq's October loss, worst month since March 2025

7,541.40

S&P 500 close Monday, Nov. 2, down 0.51%

Aerial view of a sprawling city of low-rise rooftops at golden hour, with a tight cluster of five glass skyscrapers rising high above the rest.

Equal weight gives each of the 500 companies the same share. In October that approach rose 4.9% while the regular index fell 0.9%.

In one line: In October the S&P 500 fell 0.9% while its equal-weight version rose 4.9%, the widest such gap since April 2009.

October looked like a bad month for stocks. The S&P 500 fell 0.9%. Yet the same 500 stocks, counted equally, rose 4.9%. The Journal's Heather Gillers says you have to go back to April 2009 for a gap like that. The average stock had a fine month. The giants at the top did not.

Here's why two numbers for the same 500 companies can disagree so much. A regular S&P 500 fund gives the biggest companies the biggest share. At the start of October the top five were Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN). Last week tech stocks fell hard on worries about how big the AI build-out has gotten. The biggest names pulled the whole index down with them. An equal-weight fund gives every company the same small share, so it barely felt the drop. The Nasdaq, which is heavy in tech, ended October 5.3% lower. That was its worst month since March 2025.

April 2009 was a different market. Stocks were climbing out of the financial-crisis low. Investors wanted nothing to do with the giants of that day, Exxon Mobil, Wal-Mart, Microsoft, AT&T and Johnson & Johnson. The names at the top change. The lesson doesn't. When a few companies get very big, the index stops being a basket and becomes a bet on them.

Monday gave it back. Then came the vote.

Monday, Nov. 2 followed the same script. Stocks opened higher, with the Nasdaq up about 1.4% in the first hour. Then the gains leaked away. The S&P 500 closed at 7,541.40, down 0.51%, right near its low for the day. The Nasdaq lost 1.07%. The Dow rose 0.41%. Oracle (ORCL), Intel (INTC) and AMD took some of the hardest hits in the S&P 500.

Election Day came next. The results are in neither paper, and we won't guess at them. The Journal's Jack Pitcher and Gunjan Banerji report that the votes Wall Street cares most about are the state and local ones. Governors' races in Texas, Ohio and Georgia, plus dozens of local votes on data centers, could change where the AI build-out happens. The options market expects the S&P 500 to move about 1%, either way, on Wednesday, Nov. 4. History has mostly favored staying put. Deutsche Bank looked at 23 midterm years and found the S&P 500 rose in the fourth quarter in 21 of them. On Tuesday, Nov. 3, the S&P 500 closed at 7,568.92, up 0.36%, by our own pull. That's about 3.2% under its Oct. 6 record of 7,818.93.

Our read

This is an Investments/Risk · IN04 story about concentration. The index you own is a bet on its biggest names. In October that bet lost. Equal weight is one way to spread it. We won't overclaim one month. Equal weight lags whenever the giants lead. Our own move came on Saturday, Oct. 17. That day we put the first third of the North Star cash reserve to work, equal-weight S&P 500 first. RSP is held at weight in 9 of our model books (SPUS in 3 faith books). Nothing has been bought or trimmed since. The plan's written date for the second third, the week of Nov. 3, has arrived. That decision comes in writing after the vote. Its lower trigger, 6,863, sits about 9% below Tuesday's close by our pull. This is our decision for our model books, not advice.

Here's the check for your own money this week. Open your 401(k) or brokerage app and find your S&P 500 fund. Look at its top ten holdings and add up the first five. That's how much of that fund rides on five companies. If the number makes you uneasy, an equal-weight fund or a broader fund can spread it. That's a conversation worth having while the market is calm. You check the roof while the sun's out.

What It Means For Your Portfolio

Hold. Know how much of your index fund is five names.

A regular S&P 500 fund is a bet on its five biggest names. In October that bet lost while the average stock rose almost 5%.

General planning principles, not advice for anyone in particular. Look up the top ten holdings of your main stock fund. Add up the first five. If one corner of the market owns too much of your plan, an equal-weight fund or a broader fund is one way to spread it.

Keep the money you need in the next few years out of stocks entirely. The 1% swing traders priced for Wednesday, Nov. 4 is a reminder that short-term moves are noise for long-term money.