Capital Wealth
MONDAY CLOSE · NOV 2, 2026  |  S&P 500 7,541.40 ▼ 0.51%  ·  DJIA 51,983.98 ▲ 0.41%  ·  NASDAQ 25,164.32 ▼ 1.07%  ·  RUSSELL 2000 2,805.88 ▼ 0.21%  ·  10-YR 4.89%  ·  2-YR 4.58%  ·  WTI (DEC) $96.46 ▼ 7.36%  ·  GOLD $3,956.90 ▲ 1.83%  ·  VIX 21.15 ▲ 8.91%  ·  PHLX SEMIS 10,328.33 ▼ 3.37%
Capital Wealth Daily
Election Day · Vol. III · No. 192 · TUESDAY, NOV. 3, 2026

Most Stocks Won October. Chips Didn't.

A downtown skyline of glass towers rising out of a low blanket of morning fog, pale pink dawn light over the city and its quiet streets.
The Lead · Markets · The Average Stock

The average stock won October. The S&P 500 fell 0.9% while the same 500 stocks, counted equally, rose 4.9%.

October looked like a losing month. The S&P 500 fell 0.9%. Yet the same 500 stocks, counted equally, rose 4.9%. That is the widest gap in equal weight's favor since April 2009. The Nasdaq lost 5.3%, its worst month since March 2025. Monday kept the pattern. The S&P 500 opened higher and closed near its low, down 0.51% at 7,541.40. The Nasdaq fell 1.07% and the chip index fell 3.37%. The Dow rose 0.41%, and on the New York Stock Exchange 1,722 stocks rose while 989 fell. Election Day came Tuesday. The results are in neither paper, and we do not guess at them. By our own pull after Tuesday's close, the S&P 500 rose 0.36% to 7,568.92.

Our TakeA regular index fund gives its biggest names the biggest share. So it is mostly a bet on them. In October the average stock did far better than the index. Look up what share of your index fund sits in its ten biggest names before the results come in. Keep the money you need in the next two to three years out of stocks.

HoldHold. Know how much of your index fund is five names.
THE MINUTE · ELECTION DAY, IN 60 SECONDS
1

The average stock won October. The S&P 500 fell 0.9% in October. The same 500 stocks, counted equally, rose 4.9%, the widest gap since April 2009. The Nasdaq lost 5.3%.

2

Nasdaq down 1.07%, Dow up 0.41%. The S&P 500 fell 0.51% Monday to 7,541.40. Marvell fell 13% and Lumentum 19% on their $80 billion deal. By our own pull, Tuesday's close was 0.36% higher.

3

Oil fell 7% in a day. December crude dropped $7.66, or 7.36%, to $96.46 Monday. The paper's one reason is the President playing down a return to war with Iran. Energy stocks fell about 4%.

4

Your money, in four reads. A cash advance priced near 2,190% a year sank a trucking firm. Elite colleges can cost less than state schools. Open enrollment math. Dollar General is sued over shelf prices.

5

The life side. Hardware-store cats with their own stickers. Britain asked every home to pack a 72-hour box. A first-time marathoner won New York by 13 seconds. A backup quarterback beat a 4% chance.

7,541.40
S&P 500 Monday close · 3.55% under the Oct. 6 record
Oct. 26: 7,676.77Oct. 27: 7,722.60Oct. 28: 7,743.98Oct. 29: 7,720.39Oct. 30: 7,580.07Nov. 2: 7,541.40
Six closes, Oct. 26 to Nov. 2, from the Journal. Dashed line: the Oct. 6 record, 7,818.93. Tuesday closed at 7,568.92 by our own pull.
+4.9%
The equal-weight S&P 500 in October · the S&P 500 fell 0.9%
Oct. 26: 217.29Oct. 27: 217.52Oct. 28: 217.43Oct. 29: 220.04Oct. 30: 218.31Nov. 2: 219.98
Six closes of the equal-weight fund (RSP), Oct. 26 to Nov. 2. This year RSP is up 14.8% and the S&P 500 fund (SPY) 10.3% (the Journal's ETF table).
$96.46
Oil (WTI, December) Monday · down $7.66, or 7.36%
Oct. 26: $101.76Oct. 27: $99.90Oct. 28: $102.78Oct. 29: $102.00Oct. 30: $104.12Nov. 2: $96.46
Six settles, Oct. 26 to Nov. 2. Friday, Oct. 30 settled at $104.12 (the Journal). Oil is still up 67.99% this year.
21.15
VIX Monday · Wall Street's fear gauge, up 8.91%
Oct. 26: 18.39Oct. 27: 17.52Oct. 28: 16.91Oct. 29: 17.20Oct. 30: 19.42Nov. 2: 21.15
Six closes, Oct. 26 to Nov. 2, from the Journal. Under 20 is calm; 20 to 30 is caution. Monday's range was 18.03 to 21.77. Tuesday: 20.83 by our own pull.

Off Duty · The Human File

14 stories · 3 pictured · 11 listed
Store cats, a 72-hour box, a first-time marathon winner and a crane operator.
A room under renovation in soft winter window light, sawhorses and paint cans on drop cloths, an empty plaid pet bed and paw prints in the dust.
Personal Journal · Pets & Small Business

A cat calendar raised over $36,000 for shelters. The mascot is a brand asset, and so is the owner.

Daniel the cat is the store's best salesman and can't be replaced. If your family owns a business, check who the key-person policy names this week.

Hold
A single plain white bottle left on an otherwise empty metal supermarket shelf, a long aisle of bare shelving fading into the background under flat fluorescent light.
Page One · A-hed

Britain told homes to pack 72 hours of supplies. A minister listed mascara, beans and custard.

Britain's three-day box is the emergency fund you can eat. Count the months in your own emergency fund this week. Three to six is the target.

Hold
A narrow dirt trail winding into a dark forest at dusk, thousands of fireflies glowing yellow among the tall trees and ferns on either side.
Sports · New York City Marathon

A 31-year-old won New York in his first marathon. The overnight win took years of quiet base work.

The win looked sudden. It rested on a 58:06 half marathon and a European record. Check your 401(k) contribution rate this week. That number is your base training.

Hold
Also in Off Duty · The Human File
  1. Two classic motorcycles parked side by side on a winding two-lane road through golden grass hills at sunset, the low sun flaring over the ridgeline.Opinion · A friend's comebackDoctors gave him five months. Eleven years later he's training for a 110-mile bike ride.Hold
  2. A mechanic in a dark work shirt and gloves leans under the raised hood of a blue pickup with a flashlight, palm trees behind at golden hour.Page One · CareersA Nashville crane operator makes $120,000 a year. The trades now sell paid leave along with the pay.Hold
  3. A rusted vintage gas pump stands alone on a snowy lot under heavy gray clouds, a small cabin with one lit window and snowcapped mountains behind.Page One · A-hedShe counted out $23 in small bills for gas. Running for Congress on nothing has a price list.Hold
  4. A blank spiral desk calendar, a folded newspaper and a coffee mug on a worn wooden desk beside a sunlit window in warm morning light.Opinion · Election DayJohn Glenn orbited the Earth. Asked who shaped him most, he named his small-town civics teacher.Hold
  5. An older golden retriever sits on a padded exam table in a bright veterinary room while a woman in a navy coat and gloves offers it a spoonful of medicine.Personal Journal · Family & TechThe camera showed the puppy beside what looked like the dog they lost. Check who sees your feed.Hold
  6. A lone man in a dark rain jacket stands with folded arms on the wet sideline of an empty stadium at night, floodlights glaring through the falling rain.Sports · NFLMinshew came off the bench with a 4% chance and beat Dallas 33-30. The ready backup got the call.Hold
  7. Night highway traffic seen through a rain-speckled windshield, red taillights and green overhead signs blurred ahead, a phone glowing in a dashboard mount.U.S. News · CarsSpeed too much in Virginia and a GPS box caps your car. Up to $100 to install, plus $180 in fees.Hold
  8. A white intercity coach travels an open highway at sunrise, the low sun glowing over dry grassland and distant mountains, a few cars trailing behind it.Personal Journal · TravelAirbnb bans checkout chores for bookings from Nov. 20. Price the whole trip before you book.Hold
  9. In a bright open-plan office, a small group gathers at a desk of monitors as one colleague points at a screen full of colorful charts.Personal Journal · Personal TechnologyApple's touch-screen MacBook Pro starts at $2,899. Buy the tool you'll use, not the newest one.Hold
  10. A hand-styled flat-lay on cream linen: an olive T-shirt surrounded by a straw hat, sunglasses, a leather notebook, a wristwatch, leather sandals and a canvas tote.Business & Finance · AdvertisingA clay-animation studio in Oregon is turning work away. Brands are lining up for the human touch.Hold
  11. An hourglass on a dark desk caught in the beam of a single red spotlight, dim walls of glowing market screens behind it.Business & Finance · Box officeThe weekend's top movie is about the Theranos founder. The fraud is old. The checklist still works.Hold

Arts & Books

6 stories · 3 pictured · 3 listed
Fashion dolls, Murakami's father in haiku, and the panic of 1893.
A loose linen dress with ruffled sleeves hangs from a wooden hanger on a sunlit plaster wall, a small chair with dried grasses and a clay pot beside it.
Arts in Review · Art Review

The latest court fashions once crossed borders on a doll. Your own collection needs a paper trail.

Every family has a shelf of collectibles that nobody has written down. Pick one collection this week and note what each piece is, where it came from and who gets it.

Hold
A young hand rests on an older, weathered hand over a cream envelope and an old brass key on a wooden table, soft window light behind.
Bookshelf · Memoir

Murakami's father left a stack of wartime haiku. That's where the son finally found him.

A will moves money, but it doesn't move the story behind it. Write one paragraph this week for the letter that goes next to your will, and tell someone where it is.

Hold
A rusted iron weathervane with a bent arrow and compass letters stands against a heavy, low gray sky in cool, diffused light.
Arts in Review · Film Review

Critics wrote off Ryan's Daughter in 1970. Now it's a highlight. Don't judge your plan on year one.

A cool first review stuck to this film for decades, and the film never changed. Before you sell a fund for one bad year, open the app and reread why it's in the plan.

Hold
Also in Arts & Books
  1. An empty padded recliner in a hospital room by a tall window, a folded blanket on its arm and a paper cup and small vial on the tray table.Bookshelf · HealthPsychotic Tuesday, out of the ER Thursday, psychotic by Monday. A hospital stay is not a care plan.Hold
  2. Shoppers browse a crowded estate sale in an old house, tables of china, porcelain figurines, clocks and framed paintings lit by tall windows.Arts in Review · Arts CalendarAli gets a series, Rocky's maker was once homeless, and a ghost comes to dinner. Your week, sorted.Hold
  3. A long stone railroad viaduct of tall arches crosses a marshy river valley at sunset, a steam train trailing smoke along the top under golden clouds.Opinion · HistoryA rail bubble, a dollar scare, a crash. Then the 1894 midterm cost the ruling party over 100 seats.Hold

Your Money & The Economy

15 stories · 3 pictured · 12 listed
A 2,190% cash advance, colleges cheaper than state schools, and open enrollment math.
Steel lattice transmission towers carry power lines over a fenced substation at dusk, with a lit, low data-center campus beyond a band of trees under a deep blue sky.
Page One · Housing / AI Power

A utility wants a 165-foot pole in her backyard. Read your title report before the pole shows up.

The power builders in our books work in this grid build-out. Held at weight, nothing added. Pull your home's title report this week and read every easement on it.

Hold
A tall stack of white window envelopes on a worn wooden kitchen table beside a ring of keys, soft daylight from a window behind.
Page One · Small Business

A $450,000 advance left a trucking firm $5,815.60. Fast business cash is a loan in disguise.

A merchant cash advance is a loan in all but name, paid back daily from your account. Set up a bank line while sales are good, and never roll one advance into another.

Avoid
A hand with a pen fills in a hand-drawn grid of figures beside an open notebook on a wooden desk, window light and bookshelves softly blurred behind.
Personal Journal · College Costs

A $97,900 college beat the state school on price, after aid. Run the net-price calculator first.

The schools with the scariest price tags now give steep discounts, and many families never find out. Run the net-price calculator before you cross a school off.

Hold
Also in Your Money & The Economy
  1. A weekly pill organizer, a stained coffee mug and folded reading glasses on a worn wooden kitchen table, soft daylight through vertical blinds.Personal Journal · Health CostsHe's a benefits broker. She's the patient. Their health-plan math comes down to two numbers.Hold
  2. A shopper in jeans and a gray sweatshirt carries a black plastic basket holding toilet paper and snacks down a brightly lit store aisle.Business & Finance · Consumer protectionA shopper caught nine overcharges in 27 items at Dollar General. Check the receipt before you leave.Watch
  3. A kitchen counter at dusk with a steaming mug, a bunch of kale and spinach and a weekly pill organizer, house keys hanging by the back door.Opinion · Inside ViewA call that sounds like your kid asks you to wire money. Pick a family code word this week.Hold
  4. A row of glass jars of coins with blank kraft tags on a rough wooden shelf, the jars filling from nearly empty to full against a cream wall.U.S. News · EconomyThe economy grew 3.4%. Households paid for it by saving less. Check your own cushion.Hold
  5. A shrink-wrapped pallet of cartons and a pallet jack wait at an open loading dock, a box truck backed up outside under an overcast sky.U.S. News · EconomyFactories beat the forecast. Builders fell almost 2%. Few are hiring, and few are firing.Hold
  6. A close-up of a paper store receipt listing small prices beside a fuel pump's glowing red and amber price display.U.S. News · Capital AccountTariffs, the war and the $90 checks all skipped Congress. Budget for prices you can't vote away.Hold
  7. A long avenue of domed neoclassical stone buildings in a European city at dawn, mist in the streets and bare branches in the foreground.World News · RetirementA Frenchwoman was laid off at 61, two years before her pension. Know how you'd bridge the gap.Hold
  8. A hand signs a tax return form on a wooden table beside a calculator, folded glasses and a mug, soft window light behind.Opinion · Review & OutlookYour tax preparer may need up to 18 hours of classes a year. Find the PTIN on last year's return.Hold
  9. A newly tiled walk-in shower with a grab bar, a folding teak seat and a white towel on a rail, lit by a frosted window.U.S. News · HousingA Coast Guard veteran once slept in his car. Now he pays $425 a month, on a church's old lot.Hold
  10. A lone figure walks down a long aisle between rows of server racks glowing blue on one side and amber on the other in a dim data center.Technology · CybersecurityHackers set a Swedish grocery's freezers to 122 degrees. Freeze your credit and turn on two-factor.Hold
  11. Orange robotic arms assemble white electric cars on a bright factory line while workers in hard hats watch, finished cars parked by a charging post.Business & Finance · Mining / AutonomyA mine manager's 6-year-old wants to drive a truck. His dad's job is replacing the drivers.Hold
  12. A voter drops a folded paper ballot into a plain beige ballot box on a table in a sunlit community hall, others waiting in line behind.Opinion · Ballot MeasuresA veto turned 2024-25 into 2425. Wisconsin voted on whether a governor can raise taxes that way.Hold

Markets & The Money

19 stories · 3 pictured · 16 listed
The AI trade buys insurance, Marvell's $80 billion deal, and oil's $7.66 drop.
An unfinished server room with empty steel racks, loose cables hanging from an overhead tray and a wooden cable spool on the dusty floor in window light.
Page One · Markets

The people who got rich on AI stock are buying insurance on it. Count what rides on one company.

The people who know these stocks best are paying for protection on them. Add up every share of your employer you own and see what slice of your net worth it is.

Hold
A long data-center aisle between rows of open server cabinets, bundles of yellow and black patch cables plugged into the racks under cool blue ceiling light.
Business & Finance · Deal

Marvell offered $80 billion of its own stock for Lumentum. Both stocks fell hard the same day.

Marvell is paying with its own shares, so Lumentum's price now follows Marvell's. If a stock you own is being bought with stock, read the exchange ratio first.

Hold
A lone tanker silhouetted on a flat, glassy sea at sunrise, the low sun just above the horizon and the sky and water washed in pale gold.
World News · Iran

Oil fell $7.66 in a day after calmer talk on Iran. Don't let your fuel budget swing with it.

The president said oil is falling because people expect no new war with Iran. Set your fuel budget and your energy sleeve to a number, and ignore the headline.

Hold
Also in Markets & The Money
  1. A grand stone building on a city street at dusk, lanterns glowing by its arched entrance and a lit shop window beside it, office towers behind.Page One · EarningsApple grew 12% and warned the next quarter gets tougher. Shares fell as much as 4% after hours.Hold
  2. Brass stanchions and red velvet ropes guarding a half-open door in a dim marble lobby, warm light spilling through, with a glowing chart screen at right.Business & Finance · AI fundingOpenAI wanted $30 billion and raised about $11 billion. Now the pitch goes to wealthy families.Watch
  3. Hundreds of thin strands of blue light converging on a single bright point in a dark server corridor, the racks blurred into shadow on either side.Streetwise · AI stocksChip makers put $5 billion into a big customer's stock. Your AI names may be one bet.Watch
  4. A dark data hall lined with server racks glittering with blue status lights, a polished floor reflecting them and a chart glowing on a monitor in the corner.Technology · EarningsPalantir's sales nearly doubled to $2.31 billion. The stock fell anyway. A beat was the entry fee.Hold
  5. Close-up of a large chip on a dark circuit board, glowing teal fiber-optic strands fanning out behind it and a price chart on a screen.Money & Investing · Stock SpotlightA memory-chip maker lost 16% in a day and a train maker lost 26%. One bad report did each.Watch
  6. A dusty game console sitting idle on a dim bookshelf beside a taped cardboard box, a controller and tangled cords on the shelf below, warm low light.Heard on the Street · MediaNetflix viewers watch 9% less than three years ago. Count the subscriptions you barely use.Watch
  7. An empty office desk in cool blue dusk light, a coffee mug, notepad and keyboard before a large monitor showing a rising line chart.Heard on the Street · ValuationA 1997 rule says stocks are cheap. The man who named it once dropped it. Shiller's gauge disagrees.Hold
  8. Steel storage tanks and pipes at an oil terminal at dusk, a blue price chart glowing on the nearest tank, a pressure gauge in front and a tanker offshore.Business & Finance · Refining dealA small refiner is nearing a $4 billion deal for Marathon plants. Know what your energy fund owns.Watch
  9. A capped steel wellhead standing alone on a gravel pad in a vast, empty grassland, muddy tire tracks leading away under a low gray sky.Page One · EnergyEurope cut Russian gas from 45% to 11%. Now the U.S. wants a restart. Check your energy fund.Hold
  10. A loaded tanker crossing open sea at dusk beneath heavy blue-gray clouds, the calm water stretching to a flat horizon.Business News · AirlinesRyanair's cheap fuel hedge runs out before summer 2027. Find your own roll-off dates this week.Hold
  11. A merchant tanker sailing through a narrow channel between rocky headlands at dusk, four gray warships waiting on the open water beyond.Page One · World / DefenseA rusting carrier bought for $20 million in 1998 seeded a 400-ship navy. Check your defense names.Hold
  12. A long, empty hospital corridor in cool morning light, handrails and open doorways along the walls and medical carts parked on the right.Heard on the Street · Health careTenet is up 61% on an election bet. Raymond James puts the odds of the main Medicaid fix below 15%.Watch
  13. A soccer player in a sky-blue and white striped kit stands with his back to the camera on a night pitch, the packed stands glittering with phone lights.Business & Finance · Earnings (media)World Cup and election ads lifted Fox's ad sales 47%. A one-time quarter isn't a trend.Watch
  14. A candlelit stone-vaulted spa pool with steam rising off the water, a small waterfall at the back and folded white towels stacked at the edge.Business News · Earnings (travel)Marriott's revenue per room rose 6.5% and it raised its outlook. Check your travel budget.Hold
  15. A gloved hand lifting a gold bar from pallets of stacked bullion in a concrete vault, lit by a single caged lamp hanging from the ceiling.Business & Finance · Private creditAn income fund traded 40% under its stated value. Know which number your fund statement shows you.Avoid
  16. A plain sage-green T-shirt laid flat on a gray concrete floor with black sunglasses and a white canvas sneaker beside it, soft even daylight.Business & Finance · AI shoppingA cartoon shopper that never sees an ad signed up 10 million people. Set the limits on yours.Hold
From the desk Bias, the book, what’s priced, the planopen
In this edition

No. 192 comes from the Monday and Tuesday papers, on Election Day. The close of record is Monday's. The lead is The average stock won October. The S&P 500 fell 0.9%, its equal-weight twin rose 4.9%, the widest gap since 2009.. In October the average stock beat the index by almost six points. The Human File has hardware-store cats, Britain's 72-hour emergency box, a first-time marathoner who won New York, and a crane operator making $120,000. Arts & Books has the dolls that carried Paris fashion across borders, and Murakami finding his father in a stack of haiku. Your Money has a cash advance priced near 2,190% a year and elite colleges that cost less than the state flagship. It also has a 165-foot pole in a backyard and open enrollment math. Markets has the AI trade buying insurance, Marvell's $80 billion deal for Lumentum, and oil's $7.66 drop. The results are in neither paper.

What we did
Nothing bought or trimmed. The last move is still the first North Star third, Saturday, Oct. 17, equal weight first, ahead of the written 7,175 level. The next third's written date is this week, or 6,863, 9.0% below Monday's close. The decision comes in writing after the vote.October graded the first third. Equal weight, RSP in 9 books and SPUS in 3 faith books, rose 4.9% in October while the S&P 500 fell 0.9%. Monday RSP rose 0.76% while SPY fell 0.48%. This year RSP is up 14.8% against 10.3%. Held, nothing added.Marvell, held in 20 books, fell 13% Monday on its all-stock deal for Lumentum (not held). Micron, 23 books and the North Star slice, fell 5.78%. Intel, 3 small books, fell 8.80%. CoreWeave, one sleeve at 16%, fell 8.60% to a 52-week low. Nothing added or trimmed.Energy held as the hedge through oil's 7.36% drop. Exxon, 34 books, fell 4.05%, dividend raised to $1.07. Chevron, 37 books, fell 3.29%. Cheniere, 20, fell 5.65%. Valero, 12, fell 4.55%. Valero's trim trigger, a published White House restriction on diesel exports, is not met in either paper.Safe money stays in bills and floating paper (SGOV 49 books, USFR 14). Monday's 13-week bill paid 4.040%, the 26-week 4.150%. A bank money-market account pays 0.47% (Bankrate). Gold (IAU, 46 books) rose 1.69% Monday. Quotes from the Oct. 30 bake; books unchanged since Oct. 17.
The Planning Desk Wrap · Monday, Nov. 2, and October

Monday, Nov. 2 is the close of record. The S&P 500 opened higher and closed near its low, down 0.51% at 7,541.40. That is 3.55% under the Oct. 6 record of 7,818.93 and 3.70% above the October Letter's 7,272 line, which has not been hit. The Nasdaq fell 1.07% and the chip index 3.37%. The Dow rose 0.41%, helped by financials, up 1.76%. On the New York Stock Exchange 1,722 stocks rose and 989 fell. Marvell lost 13% and Lumentum 19% on their $80 billion all-stock deal. Oracle, Intel and AMD each lost more than 7%. Oil fell $7.66, or 7.36%, to $96.46 after the President played down a return to war with Iran. The VIX rose 8.91% to 21.15. The 10-year yield was 4.893%. The jobs report comes Friday, Nov. 6. By our own pull, Tuesday's close was 7,568.92, up 0.36%, with the chip fund up 2.50% and the VIX at 20.83.

The day in the Capital Wealth Growth Portfolio
HOLD
RSP, GEV, VST, NEE, MU — The North Star first third, Oct. 17, in ten books. Monday RSP rose 0.76% while SPY fell 0.48%. RSP is up 14.8% this year against 10.3%, and October was a 4.9% gain against a 0.9% loss. GE Vernova $862.25, up 0.51%. Vistra $134.61, down 2.72%, and it reports Friday, Nov. 6. NextEra $85.03, up 1.58%. Micron $833.59, down 5.78%. The next third's written date is this week, or 6,863, 9.0% below Monday. The decision comes in writing after the vote.
HOLD
MRVL · MU · INTC · AMD · NVDA · TSM — The chip names Monday. Marvell fell 12.72% in 20 books on the Lumentum deal. Intel fell 8.80% in 3 small books. AMD fell 7.52% in one. Micron fell 5.78% in 23. TSMC fell 1.85% in 30 and Nvidia 1.26% in 31. The chip index fell 3.37%. By our own pull the chip fund rose 2.50% Tuesday. Held. Nothing added or trimmed.
HOLD
XOM, CVX, COP, EOG, LNG, VLO — The energy sleeve, held through Monday's oil drop. December crude fell 7.36% to $96.46. The energy fund XLE fell 3.96% and is still up 50.4% this year. Exxon, 34 books, $179.67, down 4.05%, with its dividend raised to $1.07. Chevron, 37 books, $227.77, down 3.29%. ConocoPhillips, 17, down 4.67%. EOG, 15, down 4.62%. Cheniere, 20, down 5.65%. Valero, 12, down 4.55%. Valero's trim trigger was not met.
HOLD
SGOV, USFR — The reserve, in 49 and 14 books. Monday's 13-week bill paid 4.040% and the 26-week 4.150%. A bank money-market account pays 0.47%. By our own pull at 6:50 p.m. PT Tuesday, Nov. 3, the crowd put 74.5% on a December quarter-point increase. The Journal's Friday box had 71% for a 4.25% top rate after Dec. 8-9. Crowd prices, not forecasts.
HOLD
AAPL, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, ORCL — The giants, held at weight. Apple, 24 books, closed at $338.32, almost 2% lower, then fell as much as 4% after hours on its outlook. Microsoft, 29 books, fell 2.83%. Meta, 20, fell 1.34%. Alphabet, 28, fell 0.30%. Amazon, 19, rose 2.20%. Oracle, 13, fell 8.76%. The cost of insuring their bonds against default is the highest since 2021 (A1).
HOLD
BRK.B, KO, COST, HD, JPM — The quiet side, held. Berkshire, 22 books, rose 2.51% to a 52-week high. Coca-Cola, 26, rose 1.86%, also a 52-week high. Costco, 20, rose 2.79%. Home Depot, 8, rose 3.63%. JPMorgan, 26, rose 1.05%. Financials gained 1.76% Monday, the best sector.
WATCH
CRWV · DG — CoreWeave sits in one satellite sleeve at 16%. It closed at $50.15 Monday, down 8.60%, a 52-week low, with record put volume (A1). Dollar General, 7 books, is sued by the FTC and 20 states over shelf prices (Monday B1). These are allegations. Held, nothing trimmed.
AVOID
TLT · merchant cash advances · illiquid income funds — Long bonds, with TLT down 6.2% this year. Merchant cash advances, one priced at about 2,190% a year (A1). Income funds that trade far below their stated value, like an Apollo fund at about 40% below.
The Weather
Bias: Risk-Off inside AI chips and AI credit; Neutral for the broad book · Confidence: Medium · 1-week lean: event-bound and two-way (the vote count, an expected 1% move on Nov. 4, AMD Tuesday night, Vistra and the jobs report Friday, Nov. 6) · 1-month lean: Neutral with a quality, value and equal-weight tilt, and Fed-increase odds near 3 in 4 keep duration out
9-day: 22.4622.469-DAY30-day: 21.1521.1530-DAY3-month: 21.6021.603-MONTH6-month: 22.6722.676-MONTH

Expected volatility by horizon at Monday's close, our own pull. The 30-day VIX is the paper's. The 9-day, at 22.46, sat above the 30-day, a short-term bump around the vote. The 3-month and 6-month still rise left to right.

  • North Star first third (written level 7,175) — bought Sat., Oct. 17, ahead of the levelPASS
  • The next third at 6,863 — 9.0% below Monday’s close (computed)FAIL
  • The next third: the week of Nov. 3 — this week; the decision in writing after the voteFAIL
  • The October Letter’s 7% line (7,272) — 3.70% below Monday’s close; Monday’s low was 7,539.38, never touchedFAIL

Signals point to stress in one corner, and around one date. The VIX rose 8.91% to 21.15 Monday, inside the 20 to 30 caution band. Options priced about a 1% move for Nov. 4. By our own Cboe pull, the 9-day VIX sat at 22.46 Monday, above the 30-day at 21.15. That is a short-term bump around the vote. The 3-month at 21.60 and the 6-month at 22.67 still rise. Tuesday the VIX eased to 20.83. Vol-of-vol was 107.40 Tuesday. Above 100 means some are still buying protection against a bad tail. The equity put/call ratio was 0.67 Monday and 0.60 Tuesday, neither fear nor comfort. Breadth was healthy, with 1,722 stocks up and 989 down on a down day. The bias would turn Risk-Off if breadth failed, the VIX passed 30 and put/call neared 1. It would turn Risk-On with the 9-day back under the 30-day and vol-of-vol under 100.

What the market has priced
The Fed's Dec. 9 decision
Polymarket · our pull, 6:50 p.m. PT Tuesday, Nov. 3
No change 23.5%Quarter-point increase 74.5%Other 2.0%
The Fed's top rate after the Dec. 8-9 meeting
Polymarket · the Journal’s box, Monday paper · $7.1M traded
4.25% (one increase) 71%4% (no change) 22%Other 3%
Best asset of 2026
Polymarket · the Journal’s box, Tuesday paper · $979K traded
S&P 500 82%Bitcoin 12%Gold 6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic back to normal by Dec. 31
Polymarket · our pull, 6:50 p.m. PT Tuesday, Nov. 3
Yes 10.5%No 89.5%

The Journal's own crowd markets (Polymarket, as printed). Monday's paper put 71% on the Fed's top rate being 4.25% after Dec. 8-9, one quarter-point increase, and 22% on no change at 4%, with $7.1 million traded as of 2:30 p.m. ET Friday. Tuesday's paper asked which asset does best in 2026. The S&P 500 82%, bitcoin 12%, gold 6%. Crowd prices, not forecasts.

Our own Polymarket pull, 6:50 p.m. PT Tuesday, Nov. 3. The Dec. 9 decision, a quarter-point increase 74.5% and no change 23.5%. A U.S. recession by the end of 2026, 5.5%. The S&P 500 touching 7,400 in December, 63.5%. Strait of Hormuz traffic back to normal by Dec. 31, 10.5%. Crowd prices, not forecasts, and they move.

The borrowing table (the Tuesday paper). Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed is 7.24% and Bankrate's 7.29%. The fed funds target is 3.75% to 4.00%. The 13-week bill paid 4.040% at Monday's auction, the 26-week 4.150%. Bankrate puts a bank money-market account at 0.47% and a five-year CD at 1.77%. The 10-year Treasury yields 4.893%, down from 5.276% a month ago, and the 2-year 4.581%.

Market-implied expectations, not forecasts. They move and have been wrong before. Not investment advice.

Closes · Monday, November 2 (the Journal) · October · and Tuesday by our own pull
S&P7,541.40 −0.51%
DJIA51,983.98 +0.41%
NASDAQ25,164.32 −1.07%
RUSSELL2,805.88 −0.21%
10Y4.893%
2Y4.581%
OIL (DEC)$96.46 −7.36%
GOLD$3,956.90 +1.83%
VIX21.15 +8.91%
SEMIS10,328.33 −3.37%
EQUAL WT+0.76%
S&P FUND−0.48%
OCT S&P−0.9%
OCT EQUAL WT+4.9%
OCT NASDAQ−5.3%
TUE S&P (OUR PULL)7,568.92 +0.36%
For the plan

Three sittings this week, none a forecast. First, your index fund. Find the fund's fact sheet and read the share held in its ten biggest names. In October the average stock beat the index by almost six points. That share tells you how much of your fund is really a bet on a few companies. Second, open enrollment. Run both plans with the care you really expect next year, not the care you hope for. Check whether a health savings account and a flexible spending account clash under your plan's rules. Third, one of two. If you own a business, read the true annual cost of any fast financing before you sign. One cash advance in the paper worked out to about 2,190% a year. If you have a college senior, run each school's net-price calculator before you rule one out. A $98,370 list price came in near $17,000 for the average student.

Fifteen minutes

Fifteen minutes. You can't vote the weather away. Election Day changes the forecast, not your roof. So check the roof. Find the share of your index fund that sits in its ten biggest names. Then make sure the money you need in the next two to three years is not in stocks. That is the whole job tonight.

Book 15 minutes — phone or Zoom →
Related

No. 191 · The AI Trade Snowballed. Most Stocks Shrugged. · No. 190 · A Selloff That Lives in One Corner · The Economy, in Plain Words · the Oct. 30 letter · The October Letter · Everything but the Timer · The North Star · The Risk Atlas · Capital Wealth Growth Portfolio

Capital Wealth Daily · Vol. III · No. 192 · Tuesday, November 3, 2026 (Election Day). Reported from The Wall Street Journal of Monday, November 2 and Tuesday, November 3, 2026 (Page One, U.S. and World News, Personal Journal, Arts in Review, the opinion pages, Sports, Business & Finance and Heard on the Street). The Tuesday paper's market tables are the Monday, November 2 close, the close of record; the Monday paper's are the Friday, October 30 close. Tuesday's closing figures, the volatility readings by horizon, vol-of-vol, the SKEW and put/call figures are the desk’s own pull after Tuesday’s close, labeled where they appear; prediction-market odds are the Journal’s own Polymarket boxes as printed and the desk’s own Polymarket pull at 6:50 p.m. PT Tuesday, Nov. 3, each labeled where it appears. Election results were not known when this edition was written. We carry crowd odds as a price, not an endorsement of any platform. The North Star buy levels and the October Letter’s odds are the desk’s opinions, stated so they can be graded, and are not forecasts. Written and edited by the Capital Wealth LG research desk.