Tenet is up 61% since June on an election bet. Raymond James puts the odds of the main Medicaid fix below 15%.

Investors have bet that the election will undo Medicaid cuts and restore the lapsed Obamacare subsidies. The analyst who studies Washington for a living puts the odds of the main fix below 15%.

By Capital Wealth · Published Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · Source: The Wall Street Journal, Monday, November 2, 2026, whose market figures are the Friday, October 30 close (Heard on the Street)

Key Points

Since June 1, Tenet Healthcare is up 61%, HCA Healthcare 28% and Universal Health Services 22%, while the S&P 500 barely moved.
Prediction markets, the column says, give Democrats heavy odds of winning the House, a crowd price and not a result. The bet is that relief from Medicaid cuts and lapsed ACA subsidies follows.
HCA trades at about 15 times next year's earnings and Tenet at 13, both above their five-year averages. HCA guided to flat earnings next year and said lost ACA coverage cost it about $400 million in the third quarter.
Raymond James's Chris Meekins puts the odds of delaying Medicaid work rules or eligibility checks below 15%. The best shot, about 40%, is a one-year delay in the hospital payment phase-down due in 2028.
His history lesson: Republicans won the House in 2010 promising to repeal the ACA, voted dozens of times, and the bill was vetoed in 2016. A winning party still needs the president's signature.

61%

Tenet Healthcare's gain since June 1

28%

HCA Healthcare's gain since June 1, despite flat guidance

15%

Meekins's ceiling on odds of delaying the Medicaid rules

$400 million

HCA's third-quarter pretax hit from lost ACA coverage

A long, empty hospital corridor in cool morning light, handrails and open doorways along the walls and medical carts parked on the right.

Hospital stocks have priced in a Washington deal. The analyst who follows Washington for Raymond James says a grand bargain is television thinking.

In one line: Hospital stocks jumped as much as 61% since June on a bet the election restores Medicaid money and ACA subsidies, and the odds of that are low.

Wall Street has picked its favorite election trade. Hospital stocks. Since June 1, Tenet Healthcare (THC) is up 61%, HCA Healthcare (HCA) 28% and Universal Health Services (UHS) 22%. The S&P 500 barely moved. David Wainer, in Monday's Heard on the Street column, says the bet needs Washington to make a deal. That is rarely a safe thing to count on.

The thinking goes like this. Prediction markets, the column says, give Democrats heavy odds of winning the House on Tuesday, with the Senate close. That is a crowd price, not a result. The votes weren't counted when the column ran. Traders hope a Democratic win brings relief from the Medicaid cuts and the lapsed Obamacare subsidies. Hospitals could use it. The “big, beautiful bill” soon adds Medicaid work requirements and more frequent eligibility checks. In 2028 it starts phasing down the extra Medicaid payments states send to hospitals. Congress let the enhanced ACA subsidies expire at the end of last year. Millions lost their plans. Many still show up at the emergency room and can't pay. HCA said that cost it about $400 million in pretax income in the third quarter.

Why a vote isn't a signature

Here's the problem. Winning the House, or even both chambers, doesn't get a bill signed. Chris Meekins of Raymond James points to 2010. Republicans won the House promising to repeal the ACA. They voted dozens of times. The repeal reached President Obama's desk in 2016, and he vetoed it. The same wall stands today, facing the other way. Meekins calls a health care grand bargain “TV show ‘West Wing’ writer thinking, not actual real-world D.C. thinking.” Government funding runs out Dec. 11. He expects a stopgap to about February. Last fall, Democrats tried to extend these same subsidies. That fight brought the longest shutdown in U.S. history, and the subsidies expired anyway.

So Meekins puts the chance of delaying the Medicaid work rules or eligibility checks below 15%. The best shot, about 40%, is a one-year delay in the hospital payment phase-down. Meanwhile HCA trades at about 15 times next year's earnings and Tenet at 13. Both are above their five-year averages. HCA just guided to flat earnings next year. UHS reported lower profit. Bernstein's Lance Wilkes is more hopeful about a deal, and even he says the relief is already in the price. If a deal does come, he thinks the Medicaid insurers Centene (CNC) and Molina (MOH) gain more than the hospitals.

Our read

This is an Investments/Risk · IN04 story with a Behavioral lesson. Trading an election is a coin flip with costs. You have to be right about the vote. Then right about what Congress does. Then right that the price hasn't already moved. Hospital stocks have already moved. HCA is held at weight in 4 of our model books, nothing added. Tenet is not held. Nothing has been bought or trimmed since Oct. 17. We watch.

For your own plan, the subsidy matters more than the stock. If you're under 65 and buy health coverage on the marketplace, the enhanced subsidy is gone, and the column's own expert puts the odds of a quick fix low. Before you pick next year's plan, price it at the full premium and put that number in your retirement budget. Don't count on Washington to lower it for you. If the full-price number breaks your budget, that's the first thing to bring to your next review. A sunny forecast is no reason to leave the umbrella at home.

What It Means For Your Portfolio

Watch. Don't buy a trade that's already paid out.

An election trade has to be right three times, on the vote, on Congress and on the price, and hospital stocks have already moved 61%.

General planning principles, not advice for anyone in particular. If you're tempted to trade the election, ask what the stock has already done. Tenet is up 61% since June on hope alone. The easy part of a bet like that is usually over before most people hear about it.

If you buy your own health coverage before Medicare, budget 2027 premiums at the full price, with no enhanced subsidy. If relief comes, it's a bonus, and if it doesn't, your plan still works.