Many voters want this election to bring prices down. Greg Ip, who writes the Journal's Capital Account column, has a hard answer for them. The three things that moved prices most this year never went through Congress. So a new Congress may not change your grocery bill much.
Ip's list is short. Last year President Trump put tariffs on goods from almost every country. The tariffs brought in billions and pushed prices up, and Congress never voted on them. At the end of February the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. Oil, gasoline and diesel got more expensive, and inflation climbed fast. Congress didn't vote on that war either. This fall the White House announced new checks. That's $90 each to millions of people on Medicare, $500 rebates to Obamacare enrollees, and $8 billion in fuel help for farmers. Congress didn't set aside money for any of it. On the things that drive prices, Ip says, Congress has mostly watched from the sidelines.
It isn't new, and it isn't one party
Ip is careful to say both parties have done this. President Biden tried to forgive $430 billion in student debt. The Supreme Court stopped him, so he forgave more than $100 billion other ways. He expanded food stamps, which Ip says added $200 billion to deficits over the long run. His IRS pushed back some deadlines and, Ip says, effectively handed taxpayers $8 billion. For generations, the power to spend, tax and go to war has drifted from Congress to the White House. Peter Harrell, an expert on international economic law who advised Biden, said the tariffs went through with "shockingly little pushback from Congress."
Ip asks whether a new Congress could take the power back. His sources doubt it. A bill to end the war or curb tariffs can be vetoed. A Brookings scholar told him the stronger tool is cutting war money from the yearly defense bill, but the next real chance for that may be late next year. The courts are more likely to stop tariffs than Congress is. The Supreme Court already ruled one tariff law was used illegally. Suits on the rest may not finish until 2028. And a big spending deal after the vote could push the deficit, inflation and interest rates higher. That's the opposite of cheaper.
Our read
This is a Cash Flow · M5 story, with a Health Costs edge. We take no side on any of it. Our point is narrower. Don't build a household budget on a campaign promise. Tariffs stay until a court or a deal removes them. Energy prices depend on a war and on shipping lanes, and in war, as Ip puts it, "the enemy gets a say." None of that turns on one Tuesday. Plan for the prices you have, and treat any drop as a bonus.
The one check this week is for retirees and anyone on an Obamacare plan. If a $90 Medicare payment or a $500 rebate shows up, it's a one-time check. Don't let it into your monthly budget as income. And if you buy coverage on the exchange, the bigger item is the subsidy that expired. Pull up next year's premium notice and see what you'd pay without it. That's the number to plan around. You don't budget on a forecast of sunshine, and you don't wait for the rain to find the umbrella.