Before the war, Russia supplied 45% of Europe's natural gas. Today it supplies 11%. That took years, and it cost Europe a lot. Now the U.S. is pitching a way back. The Journal's Yaroslav Trofimov, Drew Hinshaw and Joe Parkinson report Washington backs a quick restart of Russian gas sales to Europe, through pipelines across Ukraine.
The idea came up in September. U.S. envoys raised it on trips to Moscow and Kyiv. Russian gas would be sold through a U.S. middleman to get around European sanctions. People at the talks said that could be a lucrative opening for American investors. The White House proposed that Russia's proceeds sit in an escrow account in a third country, so the Kremlin can't spend them on the war. Kyiv would collect transit fees on the old Soviet-era pipeline from Siberia. Three-way peace talks are planned for mid-November in Abu Dhabi. Russia has so far rebuffed an energy deal.
Europe's answer so far is no
EU law phases out all Russian gas purchases by the end of 2027. The EU's energy commissioner said in October the ban should be permanent. A senior Nordic official said a restart goes against everything Europe stands for. The paper calls the push a full reversal of the first Trump term. Back then the president warned Nord Stream 2 would make Germany "captive to Russia" and sanctioned it in late 2019. The Journal's editorial board, in Tuesday's paper, calls the new plan a mistake and says it could put U.S. gas contracts at risk. That's the editorial page's view, and we report it as theirs.
Here are the numbers that matter for an investor. U.S. LNG now supplies 30% of Europe's gas. By the editorial page, U.S. LNG exports to Europe reached 10.3 billion cubic feet a day in 2025, up from about six billion in 2024. American companies put tens of billions of dollars into export terminals. They also signed contracts with European governments and utilities that run for years. Europe, meanwhile, is squeezed. Qatar's LNG is stuck inside the Persian Gulf. The EU says the Iran war has cost Europe an extra €100 billion, about $112 billion, in energy. Storage is about 75% full, below the nine-year average heading into winter. That squeeze is why European officials admit their resistance could soften.
Our read
This is an Investments/Risk · IN04 story. Cheniere (LNG), the U.S. gas exporter, is held at weight in 20 of our model books. Nothing added. The story doesn't name Cheniere. The link is ours. Its business is that 30% share and the long-term contracts behind it. A Russian pipeline comeback would be a competitor and a political risk to that business. The EU's 2027 phase-out is still law, and the EU still says no. We hold and we watch the Abu Dhabi talks in mid-November. Cheniere closed Monday, Nov. 2 at $311.67, down $18.65. Oil fell $7.66 that day and energy stocks fell broadly. The paper doesn't tie Cheniere's drop to this story, and neither do we.
For your own money, this is a contract-risk story. The value of a gas exporter rests on contracts that run for years. A political deal can change what those contracts are worth long before any gas moves. Many broad energy funds hold these exporters right next to the oil drillers. This week, check whether yours does, and how much. If your energy sleeve is there to cover an oil shock, know how much of it is really a bet on European gas contracts. If you can't tell which you own, bring the fund's holdings list to your next review. Those are two different umbrellas. Make sure you're holding the one you meant to pick up.