Last winter, skiers across the West mostly stared at brown hills. This winter has a forecast on its side. El Niño is getting stronger, NOAA says, and it tends to shove storms south. The Journal’s Caroline Tell picked four mountains that could get the powder back. The cheapest room on her page is $300 a night. The priciest is $2,750 a person.
The science is simple enough. El Niño happens when the Pacific gets unusually warm. Across North America the winter storm track tends to slide south. Brian Brettschneider, a climate scientist at the National Weather Service, draws the map in one line. “Imagine a line from San Francisco to Salt Lake City to Denver.” South of it is wetter on average in El Niño years. That means more snow, he adds, if the air stays cold enough. Alan Smith, a meteorologist at the ski forecasting site OpenSnow, flagged the spots with the best odds and added a warning. You can hit an above-average winter and still land in a dry spell.
The four picks. Taos Ski Valley in New Mexico is the sleeper. In a normal year it sees less snow than most Western resorts. In El Niño years, history says, it tends to beat its average. Condos at Edelweiss Lodge start at $400, the Blake at $497. Then there’s the new Taos by Belvedere, slopeside penthouses with private guides, from $2,750 per person a night for groups of four or more. Four people is $11,000 a night, by our math. Mammoth Mountain in California is the big-snow bet. Its summit sits above 11,000 feet, so rain is less of a threat to the base and the season often runs into June. The Village Lodge starts at $300, Limelight Mammoth at $419.
The upscale one and the wild card
Telluride, Colorado, is the upscale escape. The San Juan Mountains tend to catch El Niño storms, and the resort has nearly 2,100 acres with runs that drop into town. The Madeline Hotel starts at $945 a night. Mountain Lodge Telluride, with condos and cabins with full kitchens, starts at $349. A day of heli-skiing runs $1,975 a person. Sun Valley, Idaho, is the wild card. It’s north of the line, but a strong El Niño can still throw a storm its way. Bald Mountain’s 3,400 feet of vertical and well-kept groomers make a dry year bearable. The Sun Valley Lodge starts at $535. The resort enters its 91st season with two new high-speed lifts.
Our read
This is cash flow (M5), and a ski trip is the cleanest example of a planned splurge we know. Look at the spread on one page. The same storm falls on a $400 condo with a kitchen and a $2,750-a-person penthouse. The snow doesn’t know the difference. The room price mostly buys someone else doing the cooking. Pick the number that fits your year before you look at the photos, then spend it without guilt. That’s what a travel bucket is for. The other lesson is the forecast. El Niño raises the odds. It doesn’t book the powder. Smith says it himself. You could pick a great winter and still catch a dry week. So the room you want is the one you can change. Nothing here touches a holding.
The thing in your plan this touches is the travel line, the one that funds the big trip of the year. One check this week. Add up what last winter’s trip really cost, lifts, flights, food and the room, and write this year’s number next to it. If there isn’t a bucket for it, that’s the review. A good forecast is a reason to plan, and a plan is what lets you enjoy the splurge. We check the umbrella in the fall. The storm picks its own week.