Capital Wealth
FRIDAY CLOSE · OCT 23, 2026  |  S&P 500 7,623.68 ▼ 0.52%  ·  DJIA 52,215.16 ▼ 1.23%  ·  NASDAQ 25,955.34 ▼ 0.21%  ·  RUSSELL 2000 2,775.90 ▼ 0.29%  ·  10-YR 4.99%  ·  2-YR 4.68%  ·  WTI (DEC) $103.27 ▲ 3.82%  ·  GOLD $3,991.10 ▼ 1.28%  ·  VIX 19.45 ▲ 2.21%  ·  PHLX SEMIS 10,779.46 ▲ 0.44%
Capital Wealth Daily
The Weekend Paper · Part 1 of 2 · Vol. III · No. 188 · SATURDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2026

A Wild Thursday and a Quiet Weekend

Downtown Los Angeles at dusk from a high overlook, a cluster of towers below dark mountains and an orange sky, city lights spreading across the basin.
The Lead · The Week in Markets · Friday’s Close

The S&P 500 fell 0.47% for the week, to 2.50% under its record. Thursday's AI-debt scare gave Treasury yields their biggest one-day drop in three years.

The S&P 500 closed Friday, Oct. 23 at 7,623.68, down 0.52% on the day and 0.47% for the week. The Dow gained 0.41% for the week but fell 1.23% Friday. The Nasdaq lost 0.71%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 rose 2.00%. Thursday did the damage. Meta said it would sell nonvoting stock to pay for AI, and Wall Street asked how much of the build-out runs on debt. Tech sold off, money ran to Treasurys, and yields had their biggest one-day drop in three years. The 10-year ended the week at 4.987%. Friday swapped that worry for oil. The December contract settled at $103.27, up 79.85% this year. Under the hood, the equal-weight fund (RSP) is up 13.0% this year against 11.4% for SPY. And the Michigan mood gauge fell to 48, the second-lowest reading ever.

Our TakeThe money moved inside the market more than it left it. Tech and Meta's group fell, while energy, small caps and Treasurys rose. This weekend, look up how much of your stock fund sits in its ten biggest names, and whether you chose that on purpose.

HoldHold. Keep the mix that carried you through Thursday
THE MINUTE · THE WEEKEND PAPER, IN 60 SECONDS
1

Down a little, after a wild Thursday. The S&P 500 fell 0.47% for the week to 7,623.68, including 0.52% on Friday. That's 2.50% under the Oct. 6 record of 7,818.93.

2

The mood meter hit 48. The Michigan consumer mood index fell to 48, the second-lowest reading ever. The old pre-election October low was 57.6, set in 2008.

3

Waterslides brought the wait lists back. Off Duty finds country clubs rebuilt around pools, waterslides and kids' programs have wait lists again. The amenity-rich ones charge a median $60,000 to join.

4

He said no to $110 million. The Exchange revisits Seinfeld's no to $110 million in 1998 dollars. He reportedly held 15% of the reruns, which have fetched more than $4.5 billion.

5

What we did, which was nothing. Nothing bought, nothing trimmed. The North Star's first third, which went in Oct. 17, stands. The other two thirds wait for 6,863 or the week of Nov. 3.

7,623.68
S&P 500 Friday · down 0.47% on the week · 2.50% under the Oct. 6 record
Oct. 16: 7,659.44Oct. 19: 7,690.73Oct. 20: 7,712.57Oct. 21: 7,757.17Oct. 22: 7,663.43Oct. 23: 7,623.68
Six closes, Oct. 16 to Oct. 23. Line: the Oct. 6 record, 7,818.93.
19.45
VIX Friday · Wall Street’s fear gauge, up from 16.68 Wednesday
Oct. 16: 19.99Oct. 19: 18.44Oct. 20: 17.31Oct. 21: 16.68Oct. 22: 19.03Oct. 23: 19.45
Six closes, Oct. 16 to Oct. 23: calm Monday to Wednesday, then a jump Thursday.
4.987%
10-year Treasury yield Friday · after Thursday’s biggest one-day drop in three years
Oct. 16: 5.097%Oct. 19: 5.135%Oct. 20: 5.116%Oct. 21: 5.145%Oct. 22: 4.952%Oct. 23: 4.987%
Six closes, Oct. 16 to Oct. 23.
$103.27
Oil (WTI, December contract) Friday · up 79.85% this year
Oct. 20: $97.82Oct. 21: $97.15Oct. 22: $99.47Oct. 23: $103.27
Four closes of the December contract, Oct. 20 to Oct. 23.

Off Duty · The Human File

13 stories · 3 pictured · 10 listed
Country clubs with waterslides, a $15 million cuckoo bird, Ina Garten's kitchen, a Ph.D. with 2,300 applications.
Also in Off Duty · The Human File
  1. A ranch gate between stone pillars under a spreading oak at sunrise, a new white farmhouse and a concrete pump boom behind, wildflowers in front.Review · HumorApple picking now has state troopers, shuttle buses and VIP pricing. The memory that stuck was free.Hold
  2. A weathered wooden bench beside an empty grass playing field at dawn, a pair of muddy cleats beneath it, a goal and trees in the mist beyond.Review · ObituaryDee Brock built the Cowboys cheerleaders on a $600 salary, then quit at the peak to teach.Hold
  3. A steaming stovetop espresso pot on a lit gas burner in a sunlit kitchen, mugs and jars on a wooden counter, a wooden spoon on a linen towel.Off Duty · In My KitchenIna Garten, 78, swapped 15-hour TV shoots for one hour at her own table.Hold
  4. A platter of salad niçoise on a rustic wooden table: halved soft-boiled eggs, seared tuna, green beans, olives, tomatoes and potatoes, bread beside it.Off Duty · Eating & DrinkingIna Garten says buy the cheesecake and make the sauce. Nobody will ever know.Hold
  5. Snow-capped peaks and a glacier above a still fjord at sunrise, a small red wooden house and a gravel road on dry grass in the foreground.Off Duty · Adventure & TravelEl Niño may bring the snow back. Four ski towns run from $300 a night to $2,750 a person.Watch
  6. A single white oval tablet on a scuffed steel counter, lit by one lamp in a dark room, shelves of bottles soft and out of focus behind it.Off Duty · Wellness & BeautyA $49 box of sleep strips is about $600 a year. Price the habit before you buy it.Watch
  7. A family seen from behind on a couch in a dark living room, reacting to a match on a big wall TV, popcorn flying through the air above them.Page One · The Brewers’ AnthemHe barely knew baseball. His two-day song became the Brewers’ anthem. Take the cheap swing.Hold
  8. An empty asphalt road splits into two sweeping curves across dry prairie at sunset, a city skyline small on the horizon under orange clouds.Sports · Formula OneMercedes spent $10 million on an 11-year-old karter. A season of karting can cost a family $200,000.Hold
  9. A white marble courthouse with tall Corinthian columns and a broad flight of steps beside a modern glass office tower, under a pale blue sky.Opinion · Notable & QuotableA federal judge’s order cited a case that doesn’t exist. Check the source before you sign.Watch
  10. A heavy rusted iron nut pressing down on a coiled steel spring on a worn wooden workbench, a hammer, a vise and a jar of screws in window light.Off Duty · The Human FileA $30 Billy Bass fetched $10,000 after an artist reworked it. The attic isn’t a retirement plan.Hold

Off Duty · Style & Fashion

4 stories · 3 pictured · 1 listed
The women collecting watches, five watches only insiders spot, the new country-club casual, and Sisley's 89-year-old founder.
Also in Off Duty · Style & Fashion
  1. A sunny Paris courtyard seen from an open upper-floor window, cream stone facades with gray shutters and zinc roofs, a white electric fan on the sill.Review · Earn Your LuckShe took a job at 15 to help with the rent. Her beauty brand is in 8,049 stores with no investors.Hold

The Exchange

8 stories · 3 pictured · 5 listed
Seinfeld's $110 million no, billionaires seeding kids' accounts, the cheapest EV in the charging desert, and the math that stumped AI.
Also in The Exchange
  1. Students seen from behind work on laptops in a bright classroom, a wall screen showing a rising blue line, a city spire visible through tall windows.Exchange · Science of SuccessFive years ago AI lost a math test to kids aged 9 to 12. Now it solves problems the pros couldn’t.Hold
  2. Construction cranes over a vast unfinished steel building frame at sunset, an American flag on top, concrete trucks and workers across a dirt site.Heard on the Street · MetaMuse hit 10 million downloads. Even 100 million paying users would cover 12% of Meta's AI bill.Hold
  3. An empty basketball arena in the dark, one pool of light on center court, a lone ball and scattered confetti on the floor, the seats fading into shadow.Exchange · A24Fewer than 10 of 300 staffers knew about the Holmes film. It opened to $15 million.Hold
  4. A colonial clapboard house with a carved doorway on an autumn afternoon, two dogs resting on the stone step, fall trees and a parked motorhome to the right.Exchange · Spencer JakabMIT's endowment made 10.3%, under half an index fund. The funds that lagged now want your 401(k).Hold
  5. Rows of empty desks with dark monitors in an open-plan office at dusk, one desk lamp lit by the far window, city rooftops outside the glass.Exchange · LayoffsAmerican Express is cutting 3,500 jobs as its sales rise 9%. Good numbers don't protect a job.Watch

Your Money & The Economy

6 stories · 3 pictured · 3 listed
AI hackers and a $449 morning, the arbitration odds against investors, a 48 on the mood meter, and CDs at 5%.
Also in Your Money & The Economy
  1. An older woman seen from behind sorts paper files at a sunny kitchen table, a laptop showing a line chart, reading glasses, a plant and a cup of tea.Your Money · Rates CheckThe average 5-year CD pays 1.83% and the best pay 5.00%. Check what your cash earns.Watch
  2. A stack of unopened window envelopes on a pale kitchen counter beside tortoiseshell reading glasses and a mug, in soft light from a frosted window.Opinion · LettersAn ex-ER doctor says the ER bills up to 20 times outpatient care. Know your other doors first.Watch
  3. An empty highway checkpoint at dusk, the striped barrier arm lowered across a wet road, blank overhead signs and a booth under orange streetlights.U.S. News · Capital AccountTariffs polled 47% to 40% in favor in 2024. Now one party attacks them and the other goes quiet.Hold

Markets & The Money

6 stories · 3 pictured · 3 listed
A down week with a wild Thursday, France out-yields America, equal weight ahead of the index, and oil up 80% this year.
Also in Markets & The Money
  1. An oil pumpjack silhouetted on flat ground against a fiery orange and purple sunset, refinery stacks, steam and white storage tanks on the horizon.Markets · EnergyOil closed at $103.27, and Exxon and Chevron set 52-week highs. Gold fell. Check your energy slice.Hold
  2. A single polished silicon wafer lying on a brushed steel bench in a bright clean room, lab equipment and steel cabinets blurred behind it.Markets · Energy & ChipsThe gas in party balloons is now a U.S. critical material. Chips need it, and Qatar's is stuck.Hold
  3. A long tanker silhouetted on a calm sea at sunrise, the water glowing orange, navigation buoys scattered across the bay and a dark headland at left.Markets · Energy & DieselA Russian diesel tanker is headed for New York, due Nov. 7. Don't bank on cheaper fuel.Hold

Arts & Books · The Review

5 stories · 3 pictured · 2 listed
UPS on $100 borrowed, a Founding Father jailed for debt, the platform before Harry Potter, and Rembrandt at 23.
Also in Arts & Books · The Review
  1. A melting ice cube in a small puddle on a dark wooden table beside a few scattered coins, soft daylight from a window behind it.Arts & Books · BookshelfThe family owed Renoir 1,500 francs and hid one portrait. The painting outlived the fortune.Hold
  2. Sunlit stone arches of a cloister frame a courtyard garden with clipped hedges and an olive tree, a bell tower beyond and shadows on the flagstones.Arts & Books · MasterpieceRembrandt at 23 is at eye level in Boston through Jan. 18, 2027. The 1990 thieves left it behind.Hold
Next · Part 2 of 2 · the Monday to Wednesday papersTen companies, two-thirds of the profit growth. Stocks into the Fed. Brazil’s crash. A $7 plush toy.
From the desk Bias, the book, what’s priced, the planopen
In this edition

Four papers came in this week, so the edition runs in two parts. This is Part 1, the weekend paper of Oct. 24 and 25. Part 2 takes the Monday to Wednesday papers. The lead is A Down Week With a Wild Thursday. S&P 500 Off 0.5%, Nasdaq Off 0.7%, Dow Up 0.4%. In one line, the S&P 500 fell 0.47%, Thursday's scare gave Treasury yields their biggest one-day drop in three years, and oil settled at $103.27. Sean asked for fewer house stories and more life, style and the Exchange, so that's the mix. Country clubs with waterslides, a $15 million wooden bird, the women collecting watches and Seinfeld's $110 million no. There's no Mansion section this time. Nothing was bought or trimmed. The North Star's first third from Oct. 17 stands, and the next two wait for 6,863 or the week of Nov. 3.

What we did
Nothing bought, nothing trimmed. The North Star’s first third went in Oct. 17, ahead of 7,175. The rest waits for 6,863 or the week of Nov. 3.Valero held at 3.0% in ten books. The first Russian diesel tanker sailed, which adds supply. The trim rule is a limit on diesel exports, not met.CoreWeave held in its one sleeve at 16%. It closed Friday at $54.23, near its 52-week low of $53.50.No Mansion section this time. More life, style and the Exchange, as Sean asked.
The Planning Desk Wrap · the week to Friday, October 23

Monday to Wednesday were calm. The S&P 500 climbed to 7,757.17 on Wednesday, just 0.79% under its record, and the VIX eased to 16.68. Thursday turned. Meta's plan to sell nonvoting stock for AI set off a rotation out of tech. The 10-year yield had its biggest one-day drop in three years, to 4.952%. Friday brought oil. The S&P 500 fell 0.52% to 7,623.68, down 0.47% for the week. The December crude contract settled at $103.27, up 79.85% this year, and Exxon, Chevron and Conoco set 52-week highs. Gold went the other way, to $3,991.10, down 7.73% this year. The equal-weight fund (RSP) is up 13.0% this year against 11.4% for SPY. Read together, the money moved inside the market more than it left it. Energy, small caps and Treasurys took what tech gave up.

The weekend in the Capital Wealth Growth Portfolio
REINFORCE
SGOV, USFR — Treasury bills and floating-rate paper stay the reserve. The average bank money-market account pays 0.45%. A 13-week bill paid about 4% at this week’s auctions. Nothing new bought.
HOLD
RSP, GEV, VST, MU — The North Star’s first third went in on Saturday, Oct. 17, ahead of the written 7,175 level: equal weight first, then the power builders, then a small slice of Micron. Held. The other two thirds wait for 6,863 or the week of Nov. 3, as written.
HOLD
VLO, XOM, CVX — Energy stays the hedge. Valero is held in 12 books, at 3.0% in ten. Its written trim rule is a White House limit on diesel EXPORTS, and none has been announced. The Russian diesel deal adds supply.
HOLD
CRWV — CoreWeave, one satellite sleeve at 16%. Held. A trim stays Sean’s call.
The Weather
Bias: Neutral, with a risk-off lean inside AI · Confidence: medium-low · 1-week lean: event-bound (the Fed on Oct. 27-28, big-tech earnings, the vote on Nov. 3)

The VIX closed Friday at 19.45, up from 16.68 on Wednesday. That's a jump, not a spike, and it finished under 20. Through Thursday the volatility curve still rose from short dates to long ones, the calmer shape, by our own pull in No. 187. Signals suggest the stress stayed inside AI and tech while the wider market held up. The mood is another matter. The Michigan gauge fell to 48, the second-lowest reading ever. The Journal's prediction-market box put 70% on 2026 ending with two quarter-point Fed hikes, counting September's. Those are crowd prices, not forecasts, and they move. None of this calls for a rash move before the Fed meets and the vote comes. It does call for a look at the umbrella. Count the years of spending you hold outside stocks, and see if that number still fits the plan.

What the market has priced
Fed hikes in 2026, counting September’s
Prediction-market box, Saturday’s Journal
two 70%one 25%three 7%

The Journal’s prediction-market box (Saturday’s paper): two quarter-point Fed hikes in 2026 at 70%, one at 25%, three at 7%. September’s hike counts as one, so the crowd leans toward one more by December.

The borrowing and saving table (Saturday’s paper): the 13-week bill auctioned at 4.095%; the average five-year CD pays 1.83% and the best 5.00%; the average money-market account 0.45%; Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed 7.32%, down from 7.40%.

What changed by Wednesday (Part 2 has it): the Fed held on Oct. 28, with two officials voting for a hike.

Market-implied expectations, not forecasts. Crowd prices move and have been wrong before. Not investment advice.

Closes · Friday, October 23
S&P7,623.68 −0.52%
DJIA52,215.16 −1.23%
NASDAQ25,955.34 −0.21%
RUSSELL2,775.90 −0.29%
10Y4.987%
2Y4.680%
OIL (DEC)$103.27 +3.82%
GOLD$3,991.10 −1.28%
VIX19.45 +2.21%
S&P WEEK−0.47%
RSP YTD+13.0%
SPY YTD+11.4%
For the plan

Four weekend checks, none a forecast. First, count the years of spending you hold outside stocks. Money you'll need in the next year or two belongs in bills or a high-yield account. Second, check what your cash earns. The average money-market account pays 0.45%. A 13-week Treasury bill paid about 4% at this week's auction, and the best five-year CDs pay 5.00%. If your rate starts with a zero, move it. Third, open your biggest stock fund and see how much sits in its ten largest names. Equal weight is ahead this year, 13.0% to 11.4%, and the gap shows how much the giants decide. Fourth, read the arbitration clause in your brokerage agreement. Jason Zweig reports investors win no damages in about three of four decided Finra cases. Keep every record in one folder. Then sit still. The Fed meets Oct. 27 and 28, the vote comes Nov. 3, and neither is a reason to move fast.

Fifteen minutes

A cash rate that starts with a zero. A stock fund heavier in ten names than you knew. An arbitration clause nobody read. Thursday's rain hit one block of the market. The weekend is dry, and that's when you check the umbrella, not in the storm. Fifteen minutes is enough. Bring your statement.

Book 15 minutes — phone or Zoom →

Capital Wealth Daily · Vol. III · No. 188 · Part 1 of 2 · Saturday, October 24, 2026. Reported from The Wall Street Journal Weekend of October 24–25, 2026 (Page One, U.S. and World News, the Exchange, Heard on the Street, Review, Books, Off Duty and the opinion pages), whose market tables are the Friday, October 23 close; many are weekly changes. The VIX change is computed from the Oct. 22 and Oct. 23 closes. Written by Sean Anees Saifi. General information, not investment advice.