Merck (MRK) sells one drug that brings in almost half its money. Keytruda, a cancer treatment, did $8.6 billion in the third quarter. It loses its main U.S. patent in 2028. So every Merck report gets read for one thing, the drugs that come after it. On Thursday, Oct. 29 the company showed more of them, and the stock rose 3.8% to $146.33.
Sales rose 5% to $18.09 billion, well past the $17.35 billion analysts expected. Adjusted earnings, the company's preferred profit measure, came to $2.49 a share. Analysts had $2.09. Merck raised its profit and sales forecasts for the year. The low end of its sales range moved up to $66.8 billion, and the top stayed at $67.3 billion. Two newer products did a lot of the work. Winrevair, for a rare form of high blood pressure in the lungs, grew 93% to $694 million. Qlex, Keytruda given as a shot instead of through an IV drip, brought in $830 million in the quarter. Chief Executive Robert Davis told analysts the road to growth past the “Keytruda low period” is getting clearer, the Journal's Kelly Cloonan reported.
Two other health names had a rougher day
GSK fell 4.8% in London on Wednesday, Oct. 28. Its top seller, the shingles vaccine Shingrix, brought in £780 million, about $1.04 billion. Leaving out currency swings, that's down 5%. Analysts wanted £844 million. GSK blamed weaker sales outside the U.S. and Europe, mostly in China. Arexvy, its RSV shot, shrank by more than a fifth to £195 million. GSK kept its full-year outlook.
Boston Scientific fell 5.8% to $42.44 the same day. The device maker cut its forecast for the second time. It now sees sales growing about 4.25% this year, down from 5.5% to 6.5%. It expects fourth-quarter sales to fall 1% to 3%. An August cyberattack disrupted its manufacturing and shipping. In July it had also flagged problems with two core heart-disease products. The company says the softness lasts into 2027. A summer hack helped turn a growth year into two forecast cuts.
Our read
This is Health Costs and Investments/Risk · IN04. Merck is held at weight in 11 books; nothing added. Johnson & Johnson (25 books), AbbVie (23) and Eli Lilly (23) are held at weight too. We don't own GSK or Boston Scientific. The lesson from all three is that a health company's lead can have an end date. For Merck, the date is 2028, and newer drugs like Winrevair have to fill the gap. Qlex helps, though it's still Keytruda in a new form. Shingrix shows that vaccine sales depend on who shows up for the shot. And Boston Scientific shows that one hack in August can echo into 2027.
Here's where this touches you. If you're on Medicare, the yearly window to switch drug plans runs until Dec. 7. Merck plans years ahead around a patent date. Your plan's drug list can change every January. If you take a brand-name drug, pull next year's list this week and check that it's still covered, and at what copay. If you're due for a shingles or RSV shot, ask whether your plan covers it as a preventive shot with no copay. Bring the list to your next review and we'll compare it with you. You patch the roof in October, not in the January rain.