Capital Wealth
THURSDAY CLOSE · OCT 29, 2026  |  S&P 500 7,720.39 ▼ 0.30%  ·  DJIA 52,342.56 ▼ 0.25%  ·  NASDAQ 26,184.72 ▼ 1.38%  ·  RUSSELL 2000 2,859.22 ▲ 1.01%  ·  10-YR 4.99%  ·  2-YR 4.65%  ·  WTI (DEC) $102.00 ▼ 0.76%  ·  GOLD $4,017.70 ▼ 0.49%  ·  VIX 17.20 ▲ 1.71%  ·  PHLX SEMIS 11,518.20 ▼ 1.42%
Capital Wealth Daily
The Thursday and Friday Papers · Vol. III · No. 190 · FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 2026

A Selloff That Lives in One Corner

An empty office chair on a polished trading floor under a curved wall of red and green prices, traders moving in the background
The Lead · Markets · Two Days and a Turn

Alphabet lost $499.8 billion Thursday while most stocks rose. Friday, by our own midday pull, Intel's outlook sank the chips.

Wednesday, the Fed held at 3.75% to 4% on a 10-2 vote, and the S&P 500 rose 0.28% to 7,743.98. Thursday, Alphabet fell 12.64% and erased $499.8 billion, the second-largest one-day loss for any company on record. The S&P 500 slipped only 0.30%, to 7,720.39, and NYSE advancers led 1,914 to 782. The equal-weight fund rose 1.20% while the S&P 500 fund fell 0.38%. After the bell, Intel fell 20.60% to $73.10 on a weak outlook. By our own pull at midday Friday, with the market still open, the chip fund was down 9.59% and the S&P 500 2.15%, to 7,554.11. Equal weight was off only 0.99%, and energy stocks rose.

Our TakeWhen a selloff lives in one corner of the market, the useful move is to learn what your index fund owns and which money you need soon. Selling everything rarely fixes a problem that narrow. Look up how much of your index fund sits in its ten biggest names and in chip stocks. Keep the money you need in the next two to three years out of stocks.

HoldHold. Know what your index fund owns before you act
THE MINUTE · TWO PAPERS AND A SELLOFF, IN 60 SECONDS
1

Alphabet lost half a trillion. Thursday, Alphabet fell 12.64% and erased $499.8 billion, the second-largest one-day loss on record. The Nasdaq fell 1.38% and the S&P 500 0.30%, to 7,720.39.

2

Friday, the chips took the hit. By our own midday pull, with the market still open, Intel was down 30.66% and the chip fund 9.59%. The S&P 500 was off 2.15%, to 7,554.11.

3

Most stocks rose Thursday. NYSE advancers led 1,914 to 782. The equal-weight fund rose 1.20% while the S&P 500 fund fell 0.38%. The Russell 2000 gained 1.01%, and the 10-year fell to 4.988%.

4

Your money this week. The Fed held 10-2, with two votes for a hike. GDP grew 3.4%, PCE inflation 3.6%, mortgages 7.24%. A fake site drained a $50 gift card to $9.

5

The life side. Retirees were told to leave a live-at-sea cruise ship in Cambodia. An elite marathoner still fits running shoes. Harvard drew 180 freshmen for 90 no-laptop seats. The Brewers won their first title.

7,554.11
S&P 500 Friday, our pull · 3.39% under the Oct. 6 record
Oct. 23: 7,623.68Oct. 26: 7,676.77Oct. 27: 7,722.60Oct. 28: 7,743.98Oct. 29: 7,720.39Oct. 30: 7,554.11
Six closes, Oct. 23 to Oct. 30; Friday is the desk's own midday pull, the rest are the Journal's. Dashed line: the Oct. 6 record, 7,818.93.
-9.59%
The chip fund (SOXX) Friday, our pull · after Intel's outlook
Oct. 23: 478.20Oct. 26: 491.83Oct. 27: 511.06Oct. 28: 521.94Oct. 29: 513.86Oct. 30: 464.59
Six closes of SOXX, Oct. 23 to Oct. 30; Friday is our own pull. Thursday's paper has it up 70.6% this year.
21.89
VIX Friday, our pull · Wall Street's fear gauge, from 17.20 Thursday
Oct. 23: 19.45Oct. 26: 18.39Oct. 27: 17.52Oct. 28: 16.91Oct. 29: 17.20Oct. 30: 21.89
Six closes, Oct. 23 to Oct. 30; Friday is our own pull. Under 20 is calm; 20 to 30 is caution.
-0.99%
The equal-weight fund (RSP) Friday, our pull · the S&P 500 fund (SPY) -2.11%
Oct. 23: 216.54Oct. 26: 217.29Oct. 27: 217.52Oct. 28: 217.43Oct. 29: 220.04Oct. 30: 217.87
Six closes of RSP, Oct. 23 to Oct. 30; Friday is our own pull. Thursday the paper had RSP +1.20% while SPY fell 0.38%.

Off Duty · The Human File

9 stories · 3 pictured · 6 listed
Cruise retirees sent ashore in Cambodia, a marathoner who sells shoes and Harvard's no-laptop class.
A brass ship's compass and a lit oil lantern on the weathered wooden deck of an old ship at dusk, coiled ropes and dark open sea behind.
Page One · Retirement abroad

A couple paid $100,000 for 15 to 20 years at sea. They got until 2 p.m. to get off in Cambodia.

One couple says they were promised 15 to 20 years at sea. It lasted two. Check what you'd get back from any prepaid plan if the company failed tomorrow.

Avoid
A narrow dirt footpath winds between ferns through a forest of tall redwood trunks, morning sunbeams slanting down through the mist overhead.
Page One · A-hed

He was the top American in last year's New York City Marathon. He still sells running shoes.

The fastest American marathon debut ever came with a sponsorship. He kept his store job. Make your fixed bills fit inside the income that shows up no matter what.

Hold
A worn leather-bound copy of The Wealth of Nations lies open on a wooden table by a rain-streaked window, an inkwell and a china teacup beside it.
Page One · A-hed

180 freshmen applied for 90 seats in a Harvard class with no laptops and a book a week.

Students compete to read hard books without AI, a skill no machine supplies. Count how many times you opened your 401(k) app this week, then read your plan instead.

Hold
Also in Off Duty · The Human File
  1. A lone figure in silhouette stands at the center circle of a floodlit grass field at night, a packed stadium rising in tiers behind.Sports · World SeriesThe 19th-highest payroll just won the World Series. Owners may lock the doors after Dec. 1.Hold
  2. A worn green cloth-bound passbook with a frayed spine and a small embossed emblem lies on a scuffed green counter beside a ballpoint pen.Money & Investing · This Day in HistoryIn 1822, London traded bonds of a fake country at 81.5% of face. A price is not proof.Hold
  3. Jagged mountain peaks catch the first warm light of sunrise above an unbroken sea of white cloud, seen from high altitude under a pale sky.World News · TravelParis to Dubai went from 6 h 37 min to 11 h 44 min. Read your travel policy's war clause.Hold
  4. An empty lounge with wooden armchairs and sofas set by floor-to-ceiling windows at dusk, a staircase rising to a mezzanine and a star inlaid in the terrazzo floor.Personal Journal · Carry OnA retiree paid for Delta's best seat and got an old 767. Check the plane before you upgrade.Hold
  5. A tall film soundstage door stands ajar at night, warm light spilling across wet pavement onto stacked equipment cases, palm trees dark against a purple sky.U.S. News · ObituaryFriends told Patrick Stewart the show wouldn't last a year. He took the six-year deal anyway.Hold
  6. An empty stadium at golden hour under a curved steel roof, the freshly striped pitch ringed by rows of red seats.Sports · College FootballA 62-year-old title-winning coach took a smaller job and a 1950s playbook. His team is 6-1.Hold

Mansion

4 stories · 3 pictured · 1 listed
Malibu mansions in bankruptcy, Christopher Lloyd's boyhood estate and a $311 million Naples deal.
A modern stone-and-glass house cantilevered over a rocky hillside at dusk, its tall windows glowing warm, snow-dusted mountain peaks behind.
Mansion · Cover

He wouldn't cut his Malibu prices. Four of five homes sit unsold, and the project is in bankruptcy.

A price you won't lower keeps running up interest and taxes while you wait. Add up a year of carrying costs before you refuse the next cut.

Hold
A formal sitting room with pale blue curtains and paneled walls, tall windows looking out on clipped hedges and a green lawn, a cobalt vase in front.
Mansion · House Call

Christopher Lloyd grew up on a 400-acre estate with four governesses. The town owns it now.

Inherited money paid for the mansion and the governesses, and the town owns the estate now. Ask your heirs this month whether they want the house you plan to leave.

Hold
A straw sun hat and a folded white towel rest on a weathered wooden lounger on a sunlit terracotta terrace, bougainvillea climbing a white wall behind.
Mansion · Cover

A mystery buyer paid $311 million for nearly 19 Naples acres. The heirs down the street still wait.

Heirs inherit the tax bill and the slow sale along with the house. Check that your estate plan sets aside cash to carry the house until it sells.

Hold
Also in Mansion
  1. A white lighthouse with a small keeper's house stands on dark rocks at the edge of a calm ocean shore at dusk, its lamp lit under a pink sky.Mansion · Historic HomesA son bought the family beach house for about $50,000. His kids are asking $18.8 million.Hold

Arts & Books

6 stories · 3 pictured · 3 listed
SCTV looks back, Siena's bronzes reach the Frick, and a Broadway revival meets its critic.
Three empty dirt trails wind through a misty evergreen forest toward a snow-capped peak lit pale gold at dawn, fog settled between the dark firs.
Bookshelf · Sasquatch Country

Two friends died on a Christmas Eve hike. The news said Bigfoot. Their families said no.

A man who'd just lost his job went hiking in a county that had lost most of its logging jobs. Count the months your cash would cover if the paycheck stopped this week.

Hold
An old wooden-cabinet television glows with static on a concrete floor, its black cable splitting into a copper strand and a bright spray of glass fibers.
Arts in Review · Television

The SCTV cast rewatched their old shows and had to explain who they were impersonating.

SCTV's cast wrote their own shows in the 1970s, and those shows still run in syndication. Find the 401(k) you left at an old job and read the beneficiary line.

Hold
Steep green mountains drop to a quiet bay under streaked gray clouds, a thin strip of beach along the shore and a few small boats far offshore.
Arts in Review · Film

Marines played football on Guadalcanal on Christmas Eve 1944. Not all of them came home.

These college football stars went to war, and not all of them came home. Check the life insurance through your job and whether it ends when you leave.

Hold
Also in Arts & Books
  1. A many-arched stone bridge spans a still river in a wooded valley at dawn, its arches mirrored in the water and mist drifting over the hills.Bookshelf · Chasing the Headless HorsemanA village lost its auto plant in 1996 and became Sleepy Hollow. Now thousands visit each October.Hold
  2. Warm afternoon light pours through carved stone lattice windows and falls in patterns across the worn flagstone floor of a quiet columned hall.Arts in Review · Art ReviewRenaissance bronze could be melted down for cannons. The Frick shows what survived from Siena.Hold
  3. A crowd streams out of a brightly lit doorway into a tall glass-and-stone lobby, dozens of people in dark jackets walking toward the camera in cool evening light.Arts in Review · TheaterA Few Good Men is back on Broadway, and the Journal's critic says the movie tells it better.Hold

Your Money & The Economy

22 stories · 3 pictured · 19 listed
A drained gift card, 3.4% growth, ashes kept at home and 7.24% mortgages.
A card payment terminal and a curled paper receipt on a worn wooden shop counter, an empty chair and a street-facing window behind in late-afternoon light.
Business & Finance · Fraud

He checked a $50 gift card online. A fake site left him $9 at the register.

The fake sites copy the real ones and sit right in the search results. Check a gift-card balance only by the phone number or web address printed on the card.

Avoid
A two-story wood-framed house rises on a bare sand lot beside an unpaved road at golden hour, stacked lumber on the ground and scrub brush all around.
Page One · The Economy

The economy grew 3.4%. Average pay, after inflation, fell six months running. Both are true.

Consumers and AI spending drove growth. Pay after inflation still fell. Add up your groceries, gas, insurance and rent against a year ago. Your raise has to beat that.

Hold
An empty wooden chair with a folded wool blanket on a farmhouse porch, a pair of sandals by the step, green fields beyond in soft evening light.
Opinion · Houses of Worship

One in four households keeps a loved one's ashes at home, often for years. Write your wishes down.

The decision nobody wrote down ends up in a closet, and then in your kids' hands. Add one page on final arrangements to your estate file, with the place and who decides.

Hold
Also in Your Money & The Economy
  1. A wire shopping basket holding a few potatoes sits on the floor of a bright supermarket aisle between long shelves of boxes, jars and cans.U.S. News · InflationPrices rose 0.5% in September. Incomes rose 0.2%. Check the inflation clause on your pension.Hold
  2. A brick ranch house with a for-sale sign on the front lawn in warm late-afternoon light, a long concrete driveway and tall trees on a quiet street.U.S. News · MortgagesMortgage rates fell a second week, to 7.24%. The savings are small, and December could undo them.Hold
  3. Rows of older brick apartment buildings with a few lit windows rise behind an empty fenced playground at dusk, its swings and jungle gym caught by one lamp.Personal Journal · HomeWindow heat pumps cut heating costs 56% in New York public housing. Alaska shows the other side.Hold
  4. A ring light glows around a smartphone on a stand at a wooden desk in a dark home studio, with a notebook, coffee mug and laptop beside it.U.S. Watch · FraudA 16% promise sold on talk shows cost 300-plus investors over $76 million. He got 15 years.Avoid
  5. An open blank booklet lies on a wooden table in a dim living room, lit by the soft colored glow of a wall-mounted screen.Business & Finance · Court NoticeAnadarko buyers from 2015 to 2017 can claim from $114.5 million. Claims are due Jan. 21, 2027.Hold
  6. A white prescription bag waits on a pharmacy counter behind a glass partition, a register at right and shelves of medication boxes under fluorescent light.U.S. News · Drug PricesA new rule will make drug middlemen show employers how they're paid. If you run a company plan, ask.Hold
  7. A smartphone and a small gray cube on a wooden bedside table beside a plate of toast and a soft-boiled egg, white sheets in morning window light.U.S. Watch · HealthA judge halted an extra Medicaid work test for the chronically ill. Keep the medical file current.Hold
  8. A paper blood-collection card with one red spot stands on a white lab bench beside a used blue lancet, windows and equipment blurred behind.U.S. News · HealthSix unapproved peptides can now be sold through compounding pharmacies. Ask a doctor before you buy.Avoid
  9. A columned marble government building at golden hour, rows of small American flags lining its wide stone steps and walkway, a few visitors walking toward the doors.U.S. News · Federal debtThe debt hit 100% of GDP, a first since 1946. Stress-test your plan for a 2032 Social Security cut.Hold
  10. A vast, empty atrium inside a glass office building, cool daylight from a glass roof falling across polished stone floors and the empty walkways above.Page One · Careers / LawA law firm with $2.1 billion in revenue and no debt plans to close. Know what your job owes you.Hold
  11. An open-plan office of engineers working at desks with monitors in warm afternoon light, one empty desk and chair standing in the middle of the room.U.S. News · WorkFactory jobs are back, up 72,000 since December. More of them now want a college degree.Hold
  12. An empty school playground in early evening light, a faded hopscotch grid painted on cracked asphalt, with swings and a slide beside a brick school building.U.S. News · EducationU.S. school enrollment is down 3.7% since 2017. One Massachusetts city cut jobs and a money class.Hold
  13. An oil tanker glides across calm water past a rocky, scrub-covered headland at dawn, a low line of hills on the far shore under a pale sky.Opinion · Public pensions90,000 people, $4 billion in unfunded retiree promises. Know your own pension's funded ratio.Hold
  14. Columns of blue figures glow on a dark trading screen, blurred so far out of focus that they melt into soft bands of light.Money & Investing · Markets structureJPMorgan and Coca-Cola are among 33 companies opting out of stock tokens. A token isn't the share.Avoid
  15. A single gray electrical cabinet with one green indicator light stands against a cinder-block wall in an empty concrete utility room, conduit running up to the ceiling.Business & Finance · CryptoA $6.3 billion crypto theft may trace to one engineer's laptop. An exchange isn't a bank.Avoid
  16. Blue electric sedans plugged in at a row of glowing charging stations under a long canopy at dusk, an orange sunset over distant hills.Business & Finance · CarsFord lost ground on EVs and now expects car prices up about 1% this year. Stellantis jumped 13%.Hold
  17. Close-up of an older car's worn coil-spring suspension and brake caliper above a stained concrete garage floor, wrenches scattered in the light behind.Markets · CarsCarvana sold 39% more used cars in a flat market. A 48-month new-car loan now averages 6.93%.Hold
  18. Rows of steel rebar laid over a vast concrete foundation stretch toward distant cranes at sunset, dry hills and open ground on either side.U.S. News · Tariffs / AutosAudi paid more than $1 billion in tariffs last year. A Georgia plant came with a promise of relief.Hold
  19. An empty wooden podium with a microphone stands on a dimly lit auditorium stage beside a furled flag, rows of empty seats in the dark foreground.Opinion · Election nightKey polls close Tuesday, 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. Pacific. Put your plan in writing before the first one.Hold

Markets & The Money

27 stories · 3 pictured · 24 listed
Intel sinks the chips, memory stocks meet big oil, and the Fed shows two dissents.
A silicon wafer of finished computer chips in a steel holder, lit in cool blue and violet under bright lab light
Business & Finance · Technology

Intel had doubled in a year. Pricey memory hit its PC outlook, and it fell 20.60% after hours.

Intel's stock had doubled, then lost about a fifth in a night. Find any one stock that has doubled in your accounts and check its share of your total.

Hold
A tray of green computer memory modules standing in rows on a blue work mat, with tools and coiled test leads on the bench
Heard on the Street

Micron is up 1,000% since early 2025. A Journal columnist says oil has less far to fall.

Big Oil's gains match its cash, and memory's run far ahead of it. Check what share of your money now sits in chip stocks, and set a cap you'll keep.

Watch
A vintage metal adding machine on a worn wooden desk by a window, a long curl of white paper tape spilling across the desk beside a pencil, gray daylight.
Markets · In Market History

Rockefeller said he was buying. The Dow jumped 12.3% in a day. The bounce didn't last.

A famous buyer can make a headline. He can't make a floor, and he can wait longer than you. Write your own buy level down before the next down day, and buy only there.

Hold
Also in Markets & The Money
  1. A lone technician walks a long data-center aisle between rows of server racks glowing blue on one side and amber on the other.Business & Finance · EarningsGoogle's searches grew the fastest in five years. The stock still lost 12.64% in a day.Hold
  2. A single bare silicon wafer with a faint rainbow sheen resting on a scratched stainless steel bench under cool, flat workshop light.Page One · TechnologyApple paid $15 for storage it sold you for $200. Now it pays $66, and iPhones cost 13% more.Hold
  3. A long data center aisle lined with dark server racks on both sides, blue light running down the polished floor to a pair of white doors.Business & Finance · EarningsAmazon's cloud grew 39%, its best in years. Free cash flow was an outflow of $42.4 billion.Hold
  4. A close view of rectangular silicon chips packed side by side on a dark circuit substrate, rows of copper contacts glinting along the edges.Business & Finance · EarningsMicrosoft beat forecasts, its cloud grew 48%, and it sold $25 billion of bonds, its first since 2017Hold
  5. An empty shopping cart stands in a long warehouse-store aisle between tall shelves of packaged foods, cereal boxes and bottled goods under bright overhead lights.Heard on the StreetThe calmest S&P 500 stocks beat the jumpiest by 13 points in four weeks. Costco and P&G led.Hold
  6. A long dark wood-paneled boardroom table lined with black leather chairs, water glasses and blank nameplates set out, soft daylight through tall curtained windows.Page One · The FedThe Fed held at 3.75% to 4%. Two of 12 voters wanted a hike. Short-term bills still pay about 4%.Hold
  7. A steel building frame rising on a concrete slab at a construction site, bundled rebar and coils of orange and blue conduit in the foreground under an overcast sky.Heard on the Street · AI creditBank loans to business grew the fastest in a decade, with AI a big driver. The bankers are hedging.Watch
  8. Rows of large generator engines inside an open industrial hall, thick black power cables running out the bay door toward lit data-center buildings at dusk.Business & Finance · EarningsCaterpillar is sold out of turbines into 2030. Its stock still fell 9.3% in a day.Hold
  9. Rows of large steel oil storage tanks and pipe racks spread across a dry desert valley under a warm orange evening sky.Business & Finance · EnergyShell's refining margin hit a record $42 a barrel. The diesel-export curb we watch hasn't come.Hold
  10. A single tanker sits far out on a calm, glassy sea at dusk, seen from a rocky headland under a hazy orange and gray sky.World News · IranGulf states were told to brace for strikes after the vote. Oil at $102 is what the hedge is for.Hold
  11. A loaded tanker passes beyond a narrow gap between dark, mossy rock headlands at blue hour, a pale band of light on the horizon.Business & Finance · EnergyChevron is hunting oil where it hasn't looked in years. Half its exploration money is now frontier.Hold
  12. The Frankfurt skyline at sunset seen across the Main River, a red tram crossing a steel truss footbridge in the foreground and a riverboat below.World News · Central BanksEurope's central bank held at 2.5% as its chief said she'd leave early. France's 10-year hit 5%.Hold
  13. Close-up macro photograph of a processor chip mounted on a circuit board, fine gold traces and tiny components fanning out around the dark silicon die.Technology · EarningsSTMicro, a chip maker built on cars, says data centers and satellites lift 2026 sales nearly 23%.Hold
  14. Rows of capped glass vials of clear liquid on a steel tray in a bright pharmaceutical production lab, blue-lit machines blurred in the background.Business & Finance · EarningsMerck beat on newer drugs while Keytruda, almost half its sales, nears its 2028 patent loss.Hold
  15. A delivery rider in a hooded jacket with an insulated food bag on his back cycles across a wet city street at dusk, car lights blurred ahead.Page One · DealsDoorDash buys Instacart for $17 billion. The buyer fell on the talk and rose 5.6% on the deal.Hold
  16. A brown leather folio, a ring of brass keys and a fountain pen resting on a marble counter in a dim wood-paneled room.Business News · DealsWendy's lost No. 2 to Burger King. Now Nelson Peltz's fund offers $1.4 billion to take it private.Hold
  17. Long rows of stacked shipping containers fill a fenced port yard under a flat gray sky, warehouses and cranes along the coastline behind.Page One · AutosA Chinese EV plant could make 100,000 cars a year. Its maker sold 660 at home. The glut heads abroad.Hold
  18. Cardboard boxes stacked on a pallet with shipping labels attached in a busy warehouse, a worker sorting papers at a steel table behind, forklifts beyond.Business News · EarningsFedEx raised its forecast on higher rates and more boxes. Price your holiday shipping now.Hold
  19. An empty executive office high in a glass tower, a closed laptop on a walnut desk and a leather chair, neighboring skyscrapers fading into gray haze.Business & Finance · BanksDimon told his board the tower would cost $4 billion. His own staff now say about $6 billion.Hold
  20. A small pink house with a red tile roof and a front porch under a dark storm sky at dusk, palm trees and a trimmed lawn around it.Business News · DealsA star AI investor agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion cash. Buyouts like that can set your tax year.Hold
  21. A folded green polo shirt, faded jeans and worn brown leather loafers laid out on a shag carpet beside a ring of keys, in warm afternoon window light.Business & Finance · EarningsEtsy won buyers back for the first time in two years. Some of its sales growth was higher prices.Hold
  22. A gravel road switchbacks up a steep green mountainside at first light, a sea of cloud filling the valley below and sunlit peaks on the horizon.Business News · EarningsHarley shipped 8% fewer bikes on purpose. Riders bought 5% more and the company raised its forecast.Hold
  23. A large chalkboard covered in handwritten equations and small graphs hangs on a brick wall in a quiet study, a wooden desk and glass of water in warm side light.Opinion · InvestingImpact funds manage $1.57 trillion. An economist says investors can't tell which does the most good.Hold
  24. A large white radar dish on a steel lattice mount at a quiet coastal installation, under a flat gray overcast sky with scrub and gravel in front.Business News · DefenseThe Pentagon is buying 60,000 attack drones. Two key explosives come from one 84-year-old plant.Hold
From the desk Bias, the book, what’s priced, the planopen
In this edition

This is a Friday build, two papers in one edition. The papers end Thursday. Friday's numbers are our own midday pull, taken with the market still open. The lead is Alphabet lost $499.8 billion in a day while most stocks rose. Then Intel's outlook pulled the chip makers down. The Human File opens with retirees told to leave a live-at-sea cruise ship in Cambodia. Then come a top marathoner who still sells shoes, Harvard's no-laptop Hum 10 and the Brewers' first title. Mansion has Malibu's Chapter 11, Christopher Lloyd's boyhood estate and a $311 million Naples deal. Arts & Books runs from SCTV to Siena's bronzes at the Frick. Your Money covers the gift-card scam, 3.4% growth, cremation and the estate plan, and 7.24% mortgages. Markets has Intel, memory stocks against big oil, the Fed's two dissents and Rockefeller's 1929 bounce.

What we did
Nothing bought or trimmed, Friday included. The North Star's first third went in Saturday, Oct. 17, ahead of its 7,175 level. The next third waits for the week of Nov. 3 or 6,863, which sits 9.15% below our midday pull. Sean decides in writing after the vote.Micron held in 23 books. It fell 4.98% Thursday to $934.27, then 7.02% more by our midday pull. Friday's Heard column is a warning about a stock we hold. Intel (3 books) was off 30.66%. SanDisk and AMD sit in one book each. Nothing added or trimmed.CoreWeave held in its one satellite sleeve, at 16%. $60.74 Thursday, down 4.99%, then off 10.64% by our midday pull, and down over 35% in a month. Oracle's 2039 bond yields 8.02%, and Microsoft sold $25 billion of bonds. Nothing added or trimmed.Valero held at 3.0% in ten of 12 books. $384.57 Thursday, then up 3.17% by our midday pull. Its trigger, a published White House limit on diesel exports, is not met. Friday's Shell story says one was considered last month, then taken off the table.Safe money stays in bills and floating-rate paper (SGOV, USFR). The 13-week bill auctioned at 4.050% and the 26-week at 4.210%, against 0.46% for the average money-market account. Everything else held. Quotes are our Friday midday pull. The books are unchanged since Oct. 17.
The Planning Desk Wrap · Wednesday, Oct. 28, to Friday, Oct. 30

Wednesday was Fed day. The Fed held at 3.75% to 4% on a 10-2 vote, and the S&P 500 rose 0.28% to 7,743.98, 0.96% under its record. Chips led, with the chip index up 1.75% and Oracle up 10.7%. Thursday, Alphabet fell 12.64% and erased $499.8 billion, the second-largest one-day loss for any company on record. The Nasdaq fell 1.38% and the S&P 500 0.30%, to 7,720.39. Yet NYSE advancers led 1,914 to 782. The equal-weight fund rose 1.20% while the S&P 500 fund fell 0.38%, and the 10-year eased to 4.988% from 5.044%. After the bell, Intel fell 20.60% to $73.10 on its outlook. By our own pull at midday Friday, with the market still open, the S&P 500 was down 2.15% to 7,554.11, 3.39% under its record. The chip fund was off 9.59%. Equal weight lost only 0.99%, and Exxon and Chevron rose.

Two papers and a selloff in the Capital Wealth Growth Portfolio
HOLD
RSP, GEV, VST, NEE, MU — The North Star's first third went in Saturday, Oct. 17, in ten books, ahead of the written 7,175 level. Each pair here is Thursday's paper, then Friday by our midday pull. Equal weight (RSP) rose 1.20%, then slipped 0.99%. GE Vernova rose 1.12% to $887.85, then fell 4.05%. Vistra fell 1.24%, then 2.95%. NextEra rose 1.38%, then 2.68%. Micron fell 4.98%, then 7.02%. The second third waits for 6,863, 9.15% below Friday's midday level, or the week of Nov. 3.
HOLD
MU · SNDK · INTC · AMD — Intel guided its fourth quarter to $15 billion to $16 billion, against about $17.29 billion expected, and fell 20.60% after hours Thursday. By our midday pull Friday, Intel was down 30.66%, SanDisk 15.10%, AMD 12.32% and Micron 7.02%. Micron sits in 23 books, Intel in 3 at small weights, and SanDisk and AMD in one each. Friday's Heard notes Micron is up 1,000% and SanDisk about 3,600% since early 2025. Exxon is up 20% since the Iran war began. Held, with nothing added or trimmed.
HOLD
VLO — Valero sits at 3.0% in ten books. It closed Thursday at $384.57, down 1.01%. The trim trigger is still a published White House restriction on diesel exports, and it is not met. Friday's Shell story says one was considered last month, then taken off the table. The papers still don't explain the 9.2% drop on Oct. 27.
HOLD
XOM, CVX, COP, EOG, LNG — The energy sleeve held. Exxon (34 books) closed Thursday at $183.29 and Chevron (37) at $231.46, and both report Friday. Cheniere (20) rose 7.11% to $318.94, a 52-week high. December crude settled at $102.00, and Shell posted a record $42-a-barrel refining margin. By our midday pull Friday, Exxon was up 1.80%, Chevron 1.67% and Cheniere 3.12%.
HOLD
SGOV, USFR — The reserve sits in SGOV (49 books) and USFR (14). The 13-week bill auctioned at 4.050% and the 26-week at 4.210%, per Thursday's paper, against a 0.46% money-market average. By our pull, the crowd puts a December rate increase at about 69.5%. The Journal's box put no cuts in 2026 at 96%.
HOLD
GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, META, NVDA — The build-out held at weight. Alphabet (28 books) fell 12.64% Thursday to $283.82, erasing $499.8 billion on a search miss and negative free cash flow. Amazon (19) fell 4.25% to $243.79, though AWS grew 39% and capex hit $75.9 billion in the quarter. Microsoft (29) grew Azure 48% and sold $25 billion of bonds. Meta (20) rose 1.96%, and Nvidia (31) slipped 0.80%. By our midday pull Friday, Alphabet was off 2.07%, Amazon 2.01%, Microsoft 1.70% and Nvidia 4.87%.
WATCH
CRWV · ORCL — CoreWeave sits in one satellite sleeve at 16%. It closed Thursday at $60.74 and was off 10.64% by our midday pull Friday. Thursday's Heard said it is down more than 35% in a month, and its bonds were hit. Oracle (13 books) fell 3.45% Thursday and 6.81% Friday by our pull. Its 2039 bond yields 8.02%, 300 points over Treasurys.
AVOID
TLT · gift-card balance sites · 16% "Main Street" promises · stock tokens — Long bonds stay out. TLT is still down 6.5% this year, even after Thursday's 0.62% gain. Skip look-alike gift-card balance sites, like the one that drained a $50 card to $9. Skip 16% "Main Street" promises, like the Georgia Ponzi that lost investors over $76 million. Skip third-party tokens of shares, which 33 companies have disowned.
The Weather
Bias: Risk-Off inside AI chips, Neutral for the broad book · Confidence: Medium · 1-week lean: volatile and event-bound (the Nov. 3 vote, the Dec. 9 Fed) · 1-month lean: cautious
9-day: 22.3122.319-DAY30-day: 21.8921.8930-DAY3-month: 22.1322.133-MONTH6-month: 23.1623.166-MONTH

Expected volatility by horizon at midday Friday, our own Cboe pull, not in the papers. The curve has flattened at the front, 22.31 for 9 days, 21.89 for 30 days, 22.13 for 3 months and 23.16 for 6 months. On Thursday it still rose left to right, 15.87, 17.20, 19.37 and 21.24, the calmer shape.

  • North Star first third (written level 7,175) — bought Sat., Oct. 17, ahead of the levelPASS
  • Second third at 6,863 — 9.15% below Friday’s midday level (our pull, computed)FAIL
  • Third third: the week of Nov. 3 — next week; the decision in writing after the voteFAIL
  • The October Letter’s 7% line (7,272) — 3.73% below Friday’s midday levelFAIL

Signals point to stress that is real but narrow. By our own Cboe pull at midday Friday, the VIX rose from 16.91 Wednesday and 17.20 Thursday to 21.89. Vol-of-vol hit 117.37, its highest of the month. A reading above 110 suggests demand for crash protection is building. The curve has gone nearly flat at the front. The 9-day reads 22.31, the 3-month 22.13 and the 6-month 23.16. The 30-day still sits under the 3-month, so the curve has not inverted. Thursday's equity put/call ratio was a low 0.58. Thursday's paper showed NYSE new lows, 120, beating new highs, 62, even as advancers led. Our read is Risk-Off inside AI chips and Neutral for the broad book. A calmer read would need the 9-day back under the 3-month and vol-of-vol under 110. A darker one would need an inverted curve and selling that spreads beyond chips.

What the market has priced
The Fed's Dec. 9 decision
Polymarket · our pull, 12:12 p.m. PT Friday, Oct. 30
No change 28.5%Quarter-point increase 69.5%Other 2.0%
Fed rate increases in 2026
Polymarket · our pull, 12:12 p.m. PT Friday, Oct. 30
One 28.5%Two 70.5%Other 1.0%
Fed rate cuts in 2026
Polymarket · the Journal’s box, Thursday’s paper · $55.0M traded
None 96%One 2%Other 2%
A U.S. diesel-export ban by Dec. 31
Polymarket · our pull, 12:12 p.m. PT Friday, Oct. 30
Yes 14.5%Other 85.5%No 85.5%

The Journal's own crowd markets (Polymarket, as printed). Thursday's paper put no Fed rate cuts in 2026 at 96% and one at 2%, with $54,981,114 traded as of 2:30 p.m. ET. Friday's paper put two rate increases in 2026 at 75%, one at 24% and three at 1%, with $1,308,084 traded as of 2:30 p.m. ET Thursday. Polymarket paused trading Thursday after a breach, so these are crowd prices under a cloud.

Our own Polymarket pull, 12:12 p.m. PT Friday, Oct. 30: the Dec. 9 decision, a quarter-point increase 69.5% and no change 28.5%. Two increases in 2026, 70.5%. A U.S. recession by the end of 2026, 6.5%. The S&P 500 touching 7,400 in December, 77.5%, and 7,200, 55.5%. A U.S. ban on diesel exports announced by Dec. 31, the closest market to Valero's trigger, 14.5%. Crowd prices, not forecasts.

The borrowing table (Thursday and Friday papers). Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.24%, down from 7.32% a week earlier, and the 15-year at 6.60%. Bankrate's 30-year reads 7.32%. Prime is 7.00% and SOFR 3.94%. The 13-week bill auctioned at 4.050% and the 26-week at 4.210%, against a 0.46% money-market average.

Market-implied expectations, not forecasts. They move intraday and have been wrong before. Not investment advice.

Closes · Thursday, October 29 (the paper) · Friday, October 30 by our own pull
S&P7,720.39 −0.30%
DJIA52,342.56 −0.25%
NASDAQ26,184.72 −1.38%
RUSSELL2,859.22 +1.01%
10Y4.988%
2Y4.654%
OIL (DEC)$102.00 −0.76%
GOLD$4,017.70 −0.49%
VIX17.20 +1.71%
SEMIS11,518.20 −1.42%
EQUAL WT+1.20%
S&P FUND−0.38%
FRI S&P · OURS7,554.11 −2.15%
FRI NASDAQ · OURS25,307.02 −3.35%
FRI SOXX · OURS−9.59%
FRI VIX · OURS21.89
For the plan

Three sittings this week, none of them a forecast. First, open your index fund's fact sheet. Write down how much sits in its ten biggest names and how much in chip stocks. One stock lost $499.8 billion Thursday, and the chip fund fell hard Friday by our pull. Second, list the money you need in the next two to three years. Check whether it sits in stocks or in something like Treasury bills, where the 13-week auctioned at 4.050%. Third, pick one small chore that protects the family. Check gift-card balances only through the number or address printed on the card. Or write down your final wishes and confirm your beneficiaries, as the cremation piece suggests.

Fifteen minutes

This week's weather changed in one patch of sky, over the chip stocks. Most of the neighborhood stayed dry. Fifteen minutes is enough to check two things on your own roof. Bring the fund you own and the account that holds your next three years of spending.

Book 15 minutes — phone or Zoom →
Related

No. 189 · Ten Companies Carry a Near-Record Market · Where Our Predictions Stand · the Oct. 28 letter · No. 188 · A Wild Thursday and a Quiet Weekend · The October Letter · Everything but the Timer · The North Star · The Risk Atlas · Capital Wealth Growth Portfolio

Capital Wealth Daily · Vol. III · No. 190 · Friday, October 30, 2026. Reported from The Wall Street Journal of Thursday and Friday, October 29 and 30, 2026 (Page One, U.S. and World News, Personal Journal, Arts in Review, Bookshelf, Mansion, Business & Finance, Heard on the Street, the opinion pages and Sports), whose market tables are the Wednesday and Thursday, October 28 and 29 closes; Treasury yields are the Journal’s. Every Friday, October 30 figure is the desk’s own midday pull, taken with the market still open (delayed quotes), labeled where it appears, as are the volatility readings by horizon, vol-of-vol, the SKEW and put/call figures, and the trend lines in the tiles; prediction-market odds are the Journal’s own Polymarket boxes as printed and the desk’s own Polymarket pull at 12:12 p.m. PT Friday, Oct. 30, each labeled where it appears. We carry crowd odds as a price, not an endorsement of any platform. The North Star buy levels and the October Letter’s odds are the desk’s opinions, stated so they can be graded, and are not forecasts. Written and edited by the Capital Wealth LG research desk.