On Tuesday, Nov. 3, Virginia's polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern. In Los Angeles, that's 4 p.m., and most of us are still at work. That's where Karl Rove starts his hour-by-hour map of the night, in his Journal column on Thursday, Oct. 29. Rove was once a senior adviser to President George W. Bush. He made his own predictions, too. We're leaving every one of them out. The clock is the useful part.
Here's the schedule in Eastern time, with Pacific in parentheses. At 7 p.m. (4 p.m.), polls close in Virginia and South Carolina. Virginia is quick to post its count, and its House district map wasn't redrawn this year. Rove sees it as an early read on the national mood. Ohio closes at 7:30 (4:30). A larger group closes at 8 p.m. (5 p.m.). It includes Pennsylvania and Mississippi. It also takes in eastern Kansas, where most Kansans live, and Texas outside the El Paso area. Maine, Ohio and Michigan begin posting results at that hour, too.
Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska close at 9 p.m. (6 p.m.). So do the rural counties of western Kansas. Alaska comes last. Its polls stay open until midnight Eastern, which is 9 p.m. here. Rove tells readers to keep a laptop and some scratch paper nearby, because the count runs late.
A date on the calendar
Our October Letter, sent Oct. 16, keyed its watch to this vote. It put about a one-in-four chance on a 7% drop in the S&P 500 from its Oct. 6 record before Election Day. The index closed Thursday, Oct. 29, at 7,720.39. That's about 1% under the 7,818.93 record. Our week letter, sent that same Thursday, graded the 7% call “wrong on the date, almost surely.” The next decision on our reserve comes in writing after Nov. 3.
Our read
Behavioral, with Investments and Risk (IN04). Election night is a stream of partial counts. A number at 5 p.m. Pacific is a few counties in a few states. It isn't a result. The stock market's regular session has closed by the time the first polls close. It won't open again until Wednesday morning. A move made on a half-counted state is a move made on a guess. A written plan doesn't need to know who's ahead at dinner.
Here's the one place the vote touches your plan. It's the money you'll need in the next year or so, beyond your paycheck or pension. Think of a tax bill, a tuition payment or a car. As a general rule, money you'll spend that soon shouldn't ride on the stock market. That holds in any week, not just this one. So this week, add up that amount and see where it sits today. If it's in cash or Treasury bills, a rough morning after the vote doesn't reach it. If it's in stocks, that's a planning question, not a trade to make on a partial count. Then add two lines to your written plan, one for what you'd do after a hard week and one for a calm week. Put the umbrella by the door on Monday, and Tuesday's weather is just weather. If those lines are blank, bring them to your next review and we'll write them with you.