Say you buy a tech index fund to spread your bets. Then you look inside. More than half your money sits in Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT). That's State Street's new fund, XLKM, by Jason Zweig's math in The Intelligent Investor this weekend. Zweig's verdict is in his headline. These funds are too much of a good thing.
Here's the rule the fund works around. A fund generally can't put more than 25% of its money in one company. And its big stakes, the ones over 5% each, can't add up to more than half the fund. In early 2024 that rule squeezed Nvidia to about 5% of the S&P tech index. Apple and Microsoft sat near 22% each. An index fund can be less simple than its name.
The loophole is a fund inside a fund. Shares of another ETF don't count toward the limits. So XLKM puts 66% of its money into its older sibling, XLK, the $126 billion Technology Select Sector SPDR. XLKM's own stakes look tame. Nvidia 10.3%, Apple 9.8%, Microsoft 7.8%. But XLK held 14.9% in Nvidia, 14.3% in Apple and 11.3% in Microsoft this week. Look through, and XLKM has about 55% in those three. VanEck's TruSector funds do the same thing across all 11 sectors. Its energy fund keeps 23% in the energy SPDR. That pumps up Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).
Built for one kind of market
Zweig's point is simple. These funds do best when a few giant stocks rise together. They do worst when those same stocks fall together. That's the market we just had. As AI worries spread, Nvidia faltered, and some uncapped tech funds now lag the plain kind. Zweig adds a line we'd underline. Energy stocks have beaten tech by 25 percentage points so far this year. He grants that these funds could make you more money if you guess the right sector. Then his last line. "The hard part is the word 'if.'"
The same paper shows the harsher cousins of these funds. Among Friday's biggest losers on the markets page were two 2x funds built on Intel (INTC). GraniteShares 2x Long INTC fell 57.78%. Direxion's Intel Bull 2X fell 56.99%. Intel itself fell 28.58%. These funds reset their leverage every day. So a stock that drops by half and climbs back can leave the 2x fund deep in a hole. Zweig's uncapped funds don't borrow. But both kinds are built to win big in one direction.
Our read
Consumer Protection, M11, with Investments/Risk, IN04. Our verdict is avoid, for the extra-strength and leveraged sector funds. It isn't a verdict on owning tech. The trouble is a product that hides a 55% bet behind the word index. Our model books lean the other way on purpose. The equal-weight S&P 500 fund (RSP) sits in 9 books. It fell 0.79% Friday while the cap-weighted fund fell 1.77%. Energy is held as the hedge, Chevron in 37 books and Exxon in 34, at weight, nothing added. Nvidia is in 31 books, also at weight. General planning principles, not advice.
Here's your check this week. Open your 401(k) or brokerage app. Find any fund with sector, select, 2x or 3x in its name. Pull up its top ten holdings and look for another ETF on that list. If one is there, your real concentration is higher than the page shows. Then add up your Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft across every fund you own. You don't check the roof in the middle of the storm. Bring the list to your next review and we'll tally it with you.
