Capital Wealth
FRIDAY CLOSE · OCT 30, 2026  |  S&P 500 7,580.07 ▼ 1.82%  ·  DJIA 51,770.31 ▼ 1.09%  ·  NASDAQ 25,437.00 ▼ 2.86%  ·  RUSSELL 2000 2,811.84 ▼ 1.66%  ·  10-YR 4.93%  ·  2-YR 4.58%  ·  WTI (DEC) $104.12 ▲ 2.08%  ·  GOLD $3,885.70 ▼ 3.29%  ·  VIX 19.42 ▲ 12.91%  ·  PHLX SEMIS 10,688.80 ▼ 7.20%
Capital Wealth Daily
The Weekend Edition · Vol. III · No. 191 · WEEKEND, OCT. 31 – NOV. 1, 2026

The AI Trade Snowballed. Most Stocks Shrugged.

A city financial district at dusk, glass towers lit against an orange evening sky and mirrored in still water, with two small ferries crossing the bay.
The Lead · Markets · The Week in One Corner

Chip stocks fell hard on Friday. Most of the market held up for the week.

On Friday the Nasdaq fell 2.86%. That closed out its worst month in more than a year. The S&P 500 fell 1.82% to 7,580.07. Intel had its worst day ever, down 28.58% to $65.76. The chip index fell 7.20%. Now step back and look at the whole week. The S&P 500 lost only 0.57%. Nine of its 11 sectors rose. Small stocks rose 1.29%. Health care led, up 3.14%. Only tech and communication services fell, and they are the biggest weights in the index. Energy stocks hit new highs after Exxon and Chevron reported their best refining quarters ever. The S&P 500 sits 3.05% under its Oct. 6 record. It never touched the 7,272 line from our October Letter. The final close was also gentler than the midday numbers in our Friday edition.

Our TakeThe selling lived in one corner, the AI and chip stocks. Most of the market rose for the week. Your job this weekend is to find out how much of your money sits in that corner. This weekend, look up your index fund's ten biggest names and its tech weight. Keep the money you need in the next two to three years out of stocks.

HoldHold. Measure your AI corner. Keep near-term money out of stocks.
THE MINUTE · THE WEEKEND EDITION, IN 60 SECONDS
1

A hard Friday for chips. The Nasdaq fell 2.86% and closed its worst month in more than a year. The S&P 500 fell 1.82% to 7,580.07. Intel fell 28.58%, its worst day ever.

2

The week was one corner. The S&P 500 lost only 0.57% for the week. Nine of 11 sectors rose, and small stocks rose 1.29%. Communication services fell 8.49% and tech 1.77%.

3

The energy hedge worked. Exxon earned $15.4 billion and Chevron $9.9 billion, their best refining quarters ever. Both hit 52-week highs, along with ConocoPhillips, Cheniere and EOG. Oil closed at $104.12.

4

Your money this week. A new 0.5% floor trims charity deductions. ACA premiums rise 13%, and shopping opened Nov. 1. The 30-year mortgage is 7.24% and the 10-year Treasury 4.928%.

5

The life side. A 12-foot skeleton started a Halloween yard war. Buffet searches are up 252%. Gluten-free Goldfish came out looking like sharks. A couple drove 3,900 miles to hand out seven baby sequoias.

7,580.07
S&P 500 Friday close · 3.05% under the Oct. 6 record
Oct. 23: 7,623.68Oct. 26: 7,676.77Oct. 27: 7,722.60Oct. 28: 7,743.98Oct. 29: 7,720.39Oct. 30: 7,580.07
Six closes, Oct. 23 to Oct. 30, from the Journal. Dashed line: the Oct. 6 record, 7,818.93.
−8.24%
The chip fund (SOXX) Friday · Intel fell 28.58%
Oct. 23: 478.20Oct. 26: 491.83Oct. 27: 511.06Oct. 28: 521.94Oct. 29: 513.86Oct. 30: 471.51
Six closes of SOXX, Oct. 23 to Oct. 30. The chip index sits about 27% under its 52-week high (computed) and is still up 50.9% this year.
19.42
VIX Friday · Wall Street's fear gauge, up 12.91%
Oct. 23: 19.45Oct. 26: 18.39Oct. 27: 17.52Oct. 28: 16.91Oct. 29: 17.20Oct. 30: 19.42
Six closes, Oct. 23 to Oct. 30. Under 20 is calm; 20 to 30 is caution. Friday's range was 18.03 to 23.93.
−0.79%
The equal-weight fund (RSP) Friday · the S&P 500 fund fell 1.77%
Oct. 23: 216.54Oct. 26: 217.29Oct. 27: 217.52Oct. 28: 217.43Oct. 29: 220.04Oct. 30: 218.31
Six closes of RSP, Oct. 23 to Oct. 30. This year RSP is up 14.0% and SPY 10.8% (the Journal's ETF table).

Off Duty · The Human File

19 stories · 3 pictured · 16 listed
A yard war, a buffet boom, Goldfish sharks, skiing at 74 and seven baby sequoias.
An empty school playground at first light, with a swing set, metal climbing frame and a faded painted hopscotch grid on cracked asphalt beside a low brick building.
Page One · A-hed

A 12-foot skeleton drew an anonymous note and a bag of candy. The props now cost $379 to $1,000.

Halloween props now run $379 to $1,000, and they fill the basement the rest of the year. Add up last year's holiday spending this week and give it its own budget line.

Hold
A warm, bright restaurant with wooden booths and an open kitchen, where a cook works beside a brick wood-fired oven while a few diners sit by tall street windows.
Off Duty · Eating & Drinking

A $25 salad or a $26.99 buffet with no limit. Diners are doing the math, and searches are up 252%.

When a salad costs $25, a $26.99 plate with no limit is the value play. Pull last month's grocery and eating-out totals this week and price one meal in each.

Hold
A shopping cart full of bread, bananas, eggs, lettuce and boxed snacks waits at a supermarket checkout lane under bright fluorescent lights, a cashier at the register.
Exchange · Cover story

A girl asked for a gluten-free Goldfish. The first batch looked like sharks. Then a 36% dividend cut

Campbell's stock fell 29% in a year before the dividend cut. That's usually the order. Check the payout ratio and sales trend on each dividend stock you count on for income.

Hold
Also in Off Duty · The Human File
  1. A stone-and-glass mountain lodge glows with warm interior light at dusk, perched on a rocky slope below snow-streaked peaks.Journal Report · TravelHe turns 74 in December and still skis. His rule is about two hours, then the rest of the day off.Hold
  2. A small brick ranch house on a quiet suburban street at golden hour, with a big shade tree, young evergreens by the porch and a sign on the front lawn.Journal Report · TravelThey drove 3,900 miles to give away seven baby sequoias. A gift for people not yet born.Hold
  3. An empty stadium seen from high in the stands, rows of red seats curving around a freshly mown green field under a pale afternoon sky.Sports · BaseballAn owner paced his kitchen over a 2018 trade. A nine-year, $215 million promise paid off this week.Hold
  4. A phone lies face-down on a wooden bedside table next to a plate of toast and a soft-boiled egg, soft early-morning window light on rumpled white sheets.Review · My Monday MorningAndy Cohen has a TV paycheck and a two-tier tea habit. He still won't pay to have a shake delivered.Hold
  5. An empty glass-walled corner office at night, a desk, chair and laptop in front of floor-to-ceiling windows looking out on lit city towers.Off Duty · Gear & Gadgets · Rumble SeatA $63,600 Audi became a $75,075 Audi before it left the lot. Price the car as tested, never from.Hold
  6. Shoppers sort through tables piled with folded vintage T-shirts with paper price tags at a crowded clothing sale in a bright warehouse hall.Off Duty · Style & FashionFree Pilates, free espresso, then a $1,860 cape. At a trunk show, the perks are the sales tool.Hold
  7. A clear night sky full of stars and the Milky Way above dark open plains, a line of bright points crossing the sky and a lone tower in silhouette.Off Duty · Culture & Entertainment57 people summited Everest in 1996. Last year, 379 did. Two new films try to look past the line.Hold
  8. A rugged headland drops to a calm gray sea at dusk, the sky streaked with soft orange cloud and a single ship far out on the horizon.Journal Report · TravelA perfect drive vanished down a rabbit hole. Six men, 10 Hebrides courses, a 15-pound honesty box.Hold
  9. A narrow road switchbacks up a steep green mountainside in warm late-afternoon light, a sea of white cloud filling the valley below distant ridges.Off Duty · Adventure & TravelAn arborist says one drive takes you through fall more than once. Rooms from $152 to $550 a night.Hold
  10. A dark living room lit only by a wall-mounted television glowing with blurred blue and violet color, an open booklet lying on a wooden table below.Off Duty · Culture & EntertainmentA $750,000 horror film made over $523 million this year. Each of the year's big scares has a lesson.Hold
  11. At dawn on an old stone street, a gray-haired woman flips a sign to Open at the door of a brick bakery, its window full of loaves and pastries.Review · BusinessA priest wanted his church in Cheesecake Factory style. The chain topped $1 billion in a quarter.Hold
  12. Three glass jars of pastel candy sit beside a calculator, a stack of printed budgets, gold coins and a phone on a concrete ledge in a half-built garage.Exchange · KeywordsCandy prices are up 44% since 2021. Some bars now say chocolate candy, not milk chocolate.Hold
  13. An old leather-bound book lies open beside a china cup of coffee on a window desk, rain falling on a cobbled street of stone houses outside.Journal Report · TravelBudapest has a $280 tasting menu and a snack at 1/100th the price. Pack two price lists.Hold
  14. Folded jeans, a green shirt and a pair of brown leather loafers laid out on a brown carpet in a softly lit bedroom, car keys beside them.Off Duty · Style & FashionPrada showed 63 knee-length skirts and eBay searches jumped 360%. The skirts shown run $200 to $495.Hold
  15. A metal bank card rests on dark polished marble beside the heavy steel wheel of an open vault door, lit by cool low light.Exchange · ProfileAt 17 she was homesick in Maryland and joined a swim team. At 70 Lagarde is leaving the ECB early.Hold
  16. A worn wooden chair draped with a striped blanket stands on an old farmhouse porch, sandals on the step and green fields beyond in evening light.Review · ObituaryDolores Huerta, 96, saw her students come to class hungry and organized their parents instead.Hold

Arts & Books

7 stories · 3 pictured · 4 listed
A $300 painting, Bilbo's money, a forsaken founder and ghost stories for Halloween.
Three ranch hands on horseback, seen from behind, drive a herd of black cattle along a fence line across rolling grassland in hazy golden morning light.
Books · Art history

Grant Wood got $300 for ‘American Gothic’ in 1930. Tourists now borrow pitchforks to pose like it.

Inflation alone turned $300 into $6,000 while the picture stood still. Check what your emergency fund earns this week and whether it keeps pace with prices.

Hold
Three dirt trails wind through a misty pine forest toward a single snow-capped mountain catching the first pink light of dawn.
Bookshelf

Bilbo Baggins was rich, and Tolkien never said why. His will named Frodo, and it held.

Bilbo's will worked because it named one heir in plain words. Read the beneficiary names on your 401(k) and IRA this week, and fix any that are wrong.

Hold
A brass barometer and a folded old newspaper on a polished mahogany desk in warm lamplight, rows of leather-bound books on the shelves behind.
Books · History

Gouverneur Morris wrote ‘We the people’ and lost a leg. His house became a railyard in 1905.

Morris's house became a railyard, but his papers let a biographer find him. Write a one-page letter this week that tells your heirs where everything is.

Hold
Also in Arts & Books
  1. A lit brass lantern and an old brass ship's compass on a weathered wooden deck at dusk, coiled ropes and a dark sea behind.Books · BiographyHe ran Eton by day and wrote ghost stories by candlelight. The side craft is what lasted.Hold
  2. An empty schoolyard at dusk, swings and a metal climbing frame under one lamp, a chalk hopscotch grid and fallen leaves on cracked asphalt, brick buildings behind.Review · CultureKing threw 'Carrie' in the trash. His wife fished it out. Look twice before you dump anything.Hold
  3. An empty airfield apron at dawn under heavy blue-gray cloud, yellow taxi lines running into low mist toward distant hangars and a control tower.Bookshelf · HistoryShot down over Hitler's oil, a bomber crew was saved by a princess. Oil was the choke point then.Hold
  4. A sound engineer in headphones works a large mixing console in a recording studio while a guitarist plays in the live room behind the glass.Review · MusicA song spent 24 weeks at No. 1 and many people never heard it. Your feed isn't the market.Hold

Your Money & The Economy

12 stories · 3 pictured · 9 listed
The year-end tax list, ACA premiums up 13%, building costs and the debt nobody mentions.
A quiet study with a brick wall and a large blackboard filled with handwritten equations, an old wooden desk and a glass of water by the window.
Exchange · Tax Report

Itemizers earning $300,000 now lose the first $1,500 of their charity gifts. The year-end tax list.

The new floor hits people who give the same amount to charity every year. Take 0.5% of last year's Line 11a, then ask whether to bunch two years of gifts into one.

Hold
A white paper prescription bag waiting on a pharmacy counter behind a clear shield, a register to one side and shelves of medicine boxes behind.
U.S. News · Health Costs

A 40-year-old's ACA plan rose from about $497 to $704 a month in two years. Shopping opens Nov. 1.

Two double-digit jumps have pushed a benchmark plan from about $497 to $704 a month. Re-shop when the window opens Sunday, Nov. 1.

Hold
The wooden frame of an unfinished two-story house on a sandy lot at golden hour, a stack of fresh lumber beside it and a dirt road leading in.
U.S. News · Housing

Building codes alone add $40,288 to a new house. Tariffs add about $8,200 more.

Materials, rules, rates, labor and trucking are all pushing a new home's cost up at once. Check the dwelling coverage limit on your homeowners policy.

Hold
Also in Your Money & The Economy
  1. A young man in safety glasses soldering a small circuit board at a workbench, a pegboard of wrenches and pliers beside him in a bright shop.Page One · Cars & SafetyA $1,000 kit makes minivans hands-free. Regulators tie it to at least five crashes and three deaths.Avoid
  2. The U.S. Capitol dome lit warmly at dusk against a deep blue sky, with faint points of light linked by thin lines overhead.Review · The National Debt140 campaign ads warned about the debt in 2018. This year 30 did, as the deficit neared $2 trillion.Hold
  3. A two-story brick and siding house on a green suburban lawn in late-afternoon sun, a red for-sale sign planted near the front walk.Bookshelf · HousingA landlord died $400,000 in debt and his tenants revolted. A new history of why homes cost so much.Hold
  4. A crowd of office workers in business clothes streaming through a tall glass-walled atrium toward a bright doorway, their motion slightly blurred.Exchange · Cover storyA 95-year-old law firm with over $2 billion in revenue fell in five days. Know where your 401(k) is.Hold
  5. A small blood-collection card with one red spot and a blue lancet pen resting on a white clinical bench in soft, flat light.Business & Finance · HealthModerna's CEO pictures a cancer shot at the pharmacy, nine doses. Check your drug plan's yearly cap.Hold
  6. A bare concrete-block utility room with a single gray electrical cabinet on the back wall, one small green light glowing under a skylight.Opinion · Cross CountryA Maryland hospital's profit per patient rose from $1,510 to $8,796. Its patients fell two-thirds.Watch
  7. A laptop on a pull-out tray inside an open server rack, its screen glowing blue among blinking network equipment in a dim data room.World News · Crypto / FraudBinance's rainy-day fund held $1.23 billion. The thieves took $6.3 billion in about 20 minutes.Avoid
  8. An open-plan office of workers at rows of computer desks in warm afternoon light, one empty chair in the foreground and city towers outside.World News · EconomyFrance's economy shrank. Canada stalled. Seven in ten British CFOs see energy eating their margins.Hold
  9. A busy container port at golden hour, cranes over stacked shipping containers and a loaded cargo ship, a worker in an orange vest checking a clipboard.Business & Finance · AutosFord aims at 5 million cars a year by 2032, via a $30,000 truck and five models under $40,000.Hold

Markets & The Money

11 stories · 3 pictured · 8 listed
Record refining quarters, funds with too much in three stocks, and a thin bond cushion.
Rows of large steel crude and fuel storage tanks spread across a dry valley at golden hour, pipelines and stairways running between them.
Markets & Finance · Earnings

One pump sign read $7.68 for diesel. Exxon earned $15.4 billion in its best refining quarter ever.

The energy stocks hit 52-week highs in the same week the chip stocks fell. Find the energy line on your own statement and see what sits across from your fuel bill.

Hold
A close view of a dark blue monitor showing a single bright line climbing steeply from left to right across a faint grid.
Exchange · The Intelligent Investor

A new tech fund puts 55% of your money in three stocks. Read the look-through before you buy.

A fund that owns another fund can hide a 55% bet on three stocks. Open each sector fund's top ten holdings and look for another ETF on the list.

Avoid
An analyst's hand on a keyboard before a desktop monitor showing a nearly flat 10-year Treasury yield line, a paper coffee cup beside it in soft window light.
Markets & Finance · Bonds

The Nasdaq fell 2.86% and the 10-year yield slipped only 0.06 point. The bond cushion was thin.

Bonds barely cushioned Friday's selloff. Long bonds move on rate bets, and bills hold value. Open your bond fund's fact sheet and check its duration first.

Hold
Also in Markets & The Money
  1. A handwritten cardboard Now Hiring sign taped inside a small shop's front window, a brick wall and blurred city street reflected in the glass.Exchange · Markets (Spencer Jakab)Small stocks ran at a 42% yearly pace after past midterms, whoever won. An average isn't a promise.Watch
  2. A loaded oil tanker passing beyond a narrow gap between dark rocky headlands under a heavy gray dusk sky, calm water in the foreground.World News · Iran / OilDiesel is $6.28 and Brent is $117.64. The oil is flowing, and the fuel bill still hurts.Hold
  3. A tight close-up of rows of dark computer memory chips mounted on a circuit board, fine gold contacts glinting under studio light.World News · Chips / national securityOfficials suspect an executive seen beside Nvidia's CEO fed China. No charges reported.Watch
  4. A large darkened auditorium with a full audience facing a wide stage and a giant blue-lit screen, a lone presenter standing at center.Heard on the Street · MediaSkydance's goodwill alone is worth more than the whole company, on paper. One number has to give.Avoid
  5. A bright corporate lobby with tall glass walls and a large glowing wire sculpture of a human brain, one person walking past on the polished floor.Business Watch · EarningsAbbVie grew sales 10% and raised its dividend while tech fell. Check what pays your dividends.Hold
  6. A stack of report binders and leather notebooks on a desk in a high-rise office at dusk, market screens and blurred figures behind, city towers outside.Markets & Finance · Hedge fundsA $7 billion hedge fund lost 20% and got margin calls from its banks. Borrowed money has a clock.Avoid
  7. A black-and-white photograph of a saxophonist recording in a studio, a microphone in front of him and a guitarist, bassist and drummer behind.Markets & Finance · EarningsThe label behind Taylor Swift jumped 7.9% in a day. It's still down more than 23% this year.Hold
  8. Executives in suits reviewing papers around a long conference table high in an office tower at dusk, a spreadsheet projected on the wall.Business Watch · EarningsA railroad grew revenue 15% on 4% more freight, and shippers paid. The real economy is still moving.Hold
From the desk Bias, the book, what’s priced, the planopen
In this edition

This is the Weekend Edition, built from Saturday's paper with Friday's final close. The lead is Intel Fell 28.5% in One Day. The Week the AI Trade Snowballed Gave the Nasdaq Its Worst Month in More Than a Year. The Human File is lighter. A 12-foot skeleton starts a Halloween yard war. Buffet searches are up 252%. A gluten-free Goldfish came out looking like a shark. A man who turns 74 still skis. A couple drove 3,900 miles to hand out seven baby sequoias. The Brewers won a title on a $215 million bet. In Arts & Books, Grant Wood sold American Gothic for $300, and Tolkien never said where Bilbo's money came from. Your Money has the year-end tax list, ACA premiums up 13%, building costs and the debt nobody campaigns on. Markets has Exxon and Chevron's record refining quarters, Zweig on funds with too much in three stocks, and bonds that barely cushioned the fall.

What we did
Nothing bought or trimmed this edition, Friday included. The last move was the first North Star third, bought Oct. 17 ahead of the written 7,175 level. The next third is written for this week, or for 6,863 first, 10.45% below Friday. Sean decides in writing after the vote.Micron stays in 23 books, plus the North Star's 1% slice. Friday $884.74, down 5.30%, still up 209.99% this year and 29.5% under its high. Intel (3 books, small) fell 28.58% to $65.76, still up 78.21% this year. SanDisk (1) fell 13.47%, AMD (1) 10.88%. Nothing added.CoreWeave is held in one satellite sleeve at 16%. Friday $54.87, down 9.66%, and down 23.38% this year. Oracle, in 13 books, fell 6.37%. Its 2040 bond spread widened 17 basis points to 316, an 8.08% yield, the most in the investment-grade table. Nothing added or trimmed.Valero stays held in 12 books. Friday $399.66, up 3.92%, and up 145.51% this year. Its trim trigger, a published White House limit on diesel exports, is not met. No such story in the weekend paper. Energy is still the hedge, with Exxon and Chevron at 52-week highs.Safe money stays in bills and floating-rate paper (SGOV, USFR). The 13-week bill pays 4.050%, the 26-week 4.210%. The 10-year fell only to 4.928% on a 2.86% Nasdaq day. Bonds barely cushioned. Gold (IAU, 46 books) fell 3.51% to a 52-week low, down 10.2% this year.
The Planning Desk Wrap · The Week of Oct. 26 to Oct. 30

Friday's final close was rough in one spot. The S&P 500 fell 1.82% to 7,580.07. The Nasdaq fell 2.86% to 25,437.00, its worst day since June, and closed its worst month in more than a year. The Dow fell 1.09%. The chip index fell 7.20% and the chip fund 8.24%. Intel fell 28.58% to $65.76, its worst day on record. The VIX rose 12.91% to 19.42. Yet the equal-weight fund fell only 0.79%, against 1.77% for the S&P 500 fund. For the week the S&P 500 lost just 0.57%. Nine of 11 sectors rose, led by health care at 3.14%. Small stocks rose 1.29%. Only tech, down 1.77%, and communication services, down 8.49%, fell. The 10-year yield eased to 4.928%. Oil rose to $104.12. Gold fell 3.29% to $3,885.70, a 52-week low. The index sits 3.05% under its Oct. 6 record and never reached the October Letter's 7,272 line.

The week in the Capital Wealth Growth Portfolio
HOLD
RSP, GEV, VST, NEE, MU — The first North Star third went in Oct. 17, in ten books, ahead of the written 7,175 level. Friday the equal-weight fund fell 0.79% against 1.77% for the S&P 500 fund. It is up 14.0% this year against 10.8%. GE Vernova closed at $857.87, down 3.38%. Vistra closed at $138.37, down 1.83%, near its 52-week low of $132.66. NextEra closed at $83.71, up 1.91%. Micron closed at $884.74, down 5.30%. The second third waits for 6,863, which is 10.45% below Friday, or the week of Nov. 3.
HOLD
MU · SNDK · INTC · AMD · NVDA · TSM — Friday was hard on the chip names. Intel fell 28.58% (3 books, small weights). SanDisk fell 13.47% (1 book). AMD fell 10.88% (1). Micron fell 5.30% (23). TSMC fell 5.95% (30). Nvidia fell 4.22% (31). The chip index fell 7.20%. By our math it sits about 27% under its 52-week high, and it is still up 50.9% this year. Held, with nothing added or trimmed.
HOLD
XOM, CVX, COP, EOG, LNG, VLO — The energy sleeve is held. Exxon (34 books) closed at $187.25, up 2.16%, after earning $15.4 billion. Chevron (37) closed at $235.52, up 1.75%, after earning $9.9 billion. Both had record refining quarters. ConocoPhillips (17) rose 2.67%, Cheniere (20) 3.57% and EOG (15) 2.05%. All five hit 52-week highs. Cheniere raised its dividend to $0.625 from $0.555. Valero (12) rose 3.92%, and its trigger is not met. December oil closed at $104.12.
HOLD
SGOV, USFR — The reserve sits in 49 and 14 books. The 13-week bill pays 4.050% and the 26-week 4.210%. By our own pull at 10:28 p.m. PT Sunday, Nov. 1, the crowd puts a quarter-point increase in December at 69.5%. That is a crowd price, not a forecast. The paper confirms the Fed raised in September, to 3.75% to 4.00%.
HOLD
GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, META, AAPL — The giants are held at weight. Alphabet (28 books) closed at $279.84, down 1.40%, and is down 10.59% this year. Amazon (19) fell 1.41%, Microsoft (29) 1.55%, Meta (20) 1.53% and Apple (24) 1.23%. Apple is still up 26.77% this year. Communication services fell 8.49% for the week. Meta sold $25 billion of stock and Microsoft $25 billion of bonds to help pay for AI.
HOLD
LLY, JNJ, AMGN, PM, KO, BRK.B — The quiet winners are held. Lilly (23 books) rose 3.19% to $1,417.54, a 52-week high. Johnson & Johnson (25) touched a 52-week high. Amgen (5) rose 1.15% to a 52-week high. Philip Morris (30) and Berkshire (22) hit 52-week highs too. Coca-Cola (26) rose 1.36%. Health care led the week, up 3.14%.
WATCH
CRWV · ORCL — CoreWeave sits in one satellite sleeve at 16%. It closed at $54.87 Friday, down 9.66%, and is down 23.38% this year. Oracle (13 books) closed at $130.67, down 6.37%, and is down 32.96% this year. Its 2040 bond spread widened 17 basis points to 316.
AVOID
TLT · leveraged sector ETFs · hands-free add-on kits — Long bonds. The 20-year-plus Treasury fund (TLT) is down 6.1% this year, and bonds barely cushioned Friday's fall. Leveraged and extra-strength sector funds, the kind Zweig warns about in B4. And a $1,000 add-on kit that makes a car drive hands-free, now under a federal probe after five crashes.
The Weather
Bias: Risk-Off inside AI chips and AI credit · Neutral for the broad book · Confidence: Medium · 1-week lean: volatile and event-bound (Nov. 3 vote, Nov. 6 jobs report, chip follow-through) · 1-month lean: Neutral with a quality / value / equal-weight tilt · Signals: VIX up into a falling market with VVIX above 100 and SKEW near 150; the front of the VIX curve flattening, and the selloff narrow (equal weight beat the cap-weighted fund by about a point Friday).
9-day: 19.2519.259-DAY30-day: 19.4219.4230-DAY3-month: 20.7820.783-MONTH6-month: 22.2022.206-MONTH

Expected volatility by horizon at Friday's close, by our own pull (the 30-day VIX is the paper's). The curve still rises left to right, the calmer shape. 9-day 19.25, 30-day 19.42, 3-month 20.78, 6-month 22.20. The 9-day jumped from 15.87 Thursday to 19.25.

  • North Star first third (written level 7,175) — bought Sat., Oct. 17, ahead of the levelPASS
  • Second third at 6,863 — 10.45% below Friday’s close (computed)FAIL
  • Third third: the week of Nov. 3 — this week; the decision in writing after the voteFAIL
  • The October Letter’s 7% line (7,272) — 4.24% below Friday’s close; Friday’s low was 7,527.56, never touchedFAIL

The paper's fear gauge, the VIX, rose 12.91% to 19.42 on Friday. It traded between 18.03 and 23.93 during the day. By our own pull, the VIX curve still rises left to right. The 9-day sits at 19.25, the 30-day at 19.42, the 3-month at 20.78 and the 6-month at 22.20. That is the calmer shape. But the front end jumped, so short-term stress is rising. Vol-of-vol reads 106.43. Above 100, that means demand for crash protection is building. SKEW is 149.76, also elevated. The equity put/call ratio is 0.66, which is neither fear nor calm. Taken together, the signals point to a chip-and-AI selloff with the rest of the market holding. For the bias to change, we would want three things. The 9-day VIX above the 3-month. Vol-of-vol pushing higher. And the equal-weight fund falling as fast as the S&P 500 fund.

What the market has priced
The Fed's Dec. 9 decision
Polymarket · our pull, 10:28 p.m. PT Sunday, Nov. 1
No change 27.5%Quarter-point increase 69.5%Other 3.0%
Fed rate increases in 2026 (September's counts)
Polymarket · our pull, 10:28 p.m. PT Sunday, Nov. 1
One 27.5%Two 72.5%
Largest company at the end of 2026
Polymarket · the Journal’s box, weekend paper · $9.3M traded
Nvidia 52%Apple 48%
A U.S. diesel-export ban by Dec. 31
Polymarket · our pull, 10:28 p.m. PT Sunday, Nov. 1
Yes 16.0%No 84.0%

The Journal's own crowd market. Polymarket, as printed in the weekend paper at 2:30 p.m. ET Friday with $9,328,872 traded, asks which company is largest at the end of 2026. Nvidia 52%, Apple 48%, Alphabet 1%, Microsoft 0.4%. That is a crowd price, not a forecast.

Our own Polymarket pull, 10:28 p.m. PT Sunday, Nov. 1. A quarter-point increase on Dec. 9 sits at 69.5%, with no change at 27.5%. Two increases in 2026, counting September's, 72.5%. A U.S. recession by the end of 2026, 5.5%. The S&P 500 touching 7,400 in December, 58%, and touching 7,200, 44%. A diesel-export ban by Dec. 31, Valero's trigger, 16%. Crowd prices, not forecasts.

The borrowing table. Freddie Mac's weekly survey puts the 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.24%, and Bankrate's survey puts it at 7.32%. The fed funds target is 3.75% to 4.00%. The 4-week bill pays 3.910%, the 13-week 4.050% and the 26-week 4.210%. The 10-year Treasury yields 4.928%, down from 5.292% a month ago, and the 2-year 4.579%.

Market-implied expectations, not forecasts. They move and have been wrong before. Not investment advice.

Closes · Friday, October 30 (the Journal) · and the week
S&P7,580.07 −1.82%
DJIA51,770.31 −1.09%
NASDAQ25,437.00 −2.86%
RUSSELL2,811.84 −1.66%
10Y4.928%
2Y4.579%
OIL (DEC)$104.12 +2.08%
GOLD$3,885.70 −3.29%
VIX19.42 +12.91%
SEMIS10,688.80 −7.20%
EQUAL WT−0.79%
S&P FUND−1.77%
WEEK S&P−0.57%
WEEK NASDAQ−2.00%
WEEK RUSSELL+1.29%
WEEK HEALTH CARE+3.14%
For the plan

Three sittings this week, none a forecast. First, see what your index fund owns. Pull up its fact sheet. Add up its ten biggest names and its tech weight. Two sectors pulled the index down this week while nine rose. Second, run the year-end tax list. Itemizers now lose the first 0.5% of income from their charity deduction. If you are 70½ or older, a gift sent straight from an IRA skips that floor. Check your withholding before Dec. 31. Third, if you buy health coverage on the ACA exchange, shop again. Premiums rise 13% for 2027, and shopping opened Nov. 1. Do it before your plan auto-renews. And keep the money you need in the next two to three years in bills. The 13-week bill paid 4.050% at its latest sale.

Fifteen minutes

Fifteen minutes this weekend. The storm hit one corner of the sky, the chip and AI stocks. Most of the neighborhood stayed dry. Check the roof anyway. Know what your index fund owns, and where your next two to three years of money sits. Then go hand out the candy.

Book 15 minutes — phone or Zoom →
Related

No. 190 · A Selloff That Lives in One Corner · The Economy, in Plain Words · the Oct. 30 letter · A Selloff in One Corner of the Market · the Oct. 30 letter · The October Letter · Everything but the Timer · The North Star · The Risk Atlas · Capital Wealth Growth Portfolio

Capital Wealth Daily · Vol. III · No. 191 · The Weekend Edition, October 31 – November 1, 2026. Reported from The Wall Street Journal Weekend of Saturday/Sunday, October 31 – November 1, 2026 (Page One, U.S. and World News, the opinion pages, Sports, Exchange, Heard on the Street, Review, Bookshelf, Off Duty and the Journal Report on travel), whose market tables are the Friday, October 30 close and the week of October 26 to 30; Treasury yields are the Journal’s. The volatility readings by horizon, vol-of-vol, the SKEW and put/call figures are the desk’s own pull of Friday’s closing data, labeled where they appear; prediction-market odds are the Journal’s own Polymarket box as printed and the desk’s own Polymarket pull at 10:28 p.m. PT Sunday, Nov. 1, each labeled where it appears. We carry crowd odds as a price, not an endorsement of any platform. The North Star buy levels and the October Letter’s odds are the desk’s opinions, stated so they can be graded, and are not forecasts. Written and edited by the Capital Wealth LG research desk.