Jim Farley stood in front of Ford workers Thursday and named a number. Five million cars a year by 2032. Ford (F) hasn't sold that many since 2019. It's about 20% more than it sells now. The way back, he said, runs through new models. Ford has said five of them will cost under $40,000.
The Journal's Ryan Felton and Christopher Otts have the story, from people familiar with Farley's comments. Ford declined to comment. So treat the target as a goal said in a room, not a promise made to shareholders. Ford delivered about 3 million vehicles through Sept. 30, down 9% from a year earlier. A decade ago it sold more than 6 million a year. Part of the drop was on purpose. Farley dropped what he called “boring” low-margin models, like the Escape and Edge SUVs. Those were hundreds of thousands of sales a year.
Now Ford wants the budget buyer back. It plans five new models under $40,000 by the end of the decade. The headline is the Fathom, a $30,000 electric pickup. Ford expects more than 100,000 sales in its first year, with production starting in the fourth quarter of 2027. In Europe, Ford will build cars with Renault and with China's Geely at a plant in Spain.
The $50,000 problem
The reason this matters to you isn't Ford's stock, down about 6.6% this year at $12.25. It's a number in the middle of the story. The average new car now sells for around $50,000. Interest rates are high. Fuel is high. The new-car market is shrinking because buyers can't make the payment work. When a carmaker goes chasing the under-$40,000 buyer, it's telling you that buyer has gone missing.
Our read
This is Cash Flow, M5, the car line in your budget. The practice holds no Ford in any model book, and one town hall doesn't change that. What we take from the story is the price signal. When a big carmaker starts promising cheaper models two years out, the cars on the lot today are priced for a buyer who isn't there.
Here's your check. Pull up your car payment and the loan's rate. Then run the simple math on a $50,000 car at today's rates and see whether that's a payment you'd sign for again. If your current car has life in it, the cheaper models aren't due until late 2027 at the earliest, and a good used car doesn't need a town hall. Write down your next car's budget now, before a dealer writes it for you. If the car line is the one that strains your budget, bring it to your next review. You pick the umbrella before you leave the house, not when the rain starts.