Tim Cook Turned 72 Million iPhones Into 255 Million and 2,200%. Now Apple Needs to Invent Something.
John Ternus becomes chief executive Tuesday of a company worth nearly $5 trillion that trades at 33 times next year’s earnings while its earnings grow half as fast as the market. The AI hyperscalers are eating the memory chips it needs, a judge is trimming the App Store toll, and a foldable iPhone arrives September 9.
By Sean Anees Saifi · Capital Wealth · Published Tuesday, September 1, 2026 · Source: The Wall Street Journal, August 29–30 and September 1, 2026 editions
Key Points
Apple’s stock rose more than 2,200% under Cook since 2011 — about 23.5% a year, more than twice the Dow. It fell 0.9% on his last day.
iPhone volumes went from 72 million the year Cook took over to an estimated 255 million this year; Apple returned more than $1 trillion to shareholders.
The stock trades at 33 times next year’s earnings against 20 for the S&P 500, with earnings growing half as fast. “When valuation gets stretched, safety isn’t safe anymore.”
AI hyperscalers are consuming the memory and logic chips Apple needs, raising its costs and creating shortages of Macs; most of the supply chain still sits in China.
A California judge’s rulings on in-app payments cut App Store commission revenue in the U.S. by 6% in the June quarter. A foldable iPhone is expected at the September 9 event.
2,200%
return under Cook since 2011
33×
next year’s earnings; S&P at 20×
255M
iPhones this year, est.
−6%
U.S. App Store commissions, June quarter
Apple defined how people talk to computers for 40 years, from the Apple II to the iPhone. In the AI era, it has not yet.
In one line: The scaling era is over and the innovating era has to start, at a price that already assumes it will.
Tim Cook’s last day as Apple’s chief executive was Monday, and the stock fell 0.9%. That is about the only bad number in fourteen years. Apple has returned more than 2,200% since 2011, roughly 23.5% a year, more than twice the Dow. The year Cook took over, Apple sold 72 million iPhones; this year it will sell an estimated 255 million. It returned more than a trillion dollars to shareholders along the way.
John Ternus takes over Tuesday. He inherits the second-most valuable company on earth, worth nearly $5 trillion, and the problem that comes with it: how do you keep climbing from there?
The price of safety
Investors have been paying up for Apple because it looks safe next to the AI spending war. It trades at 33 times next year’s earnings against 20 for the S&P 500, while its earnings grow half as fast as the market’s. “When valuation gets stretched, safety isn’t safe anymore,” analyst Craig Moffett told the Journal.
The new CEO’s inbox
Detail
Component squeeze
AI hyperscalers are buying up memory and logic capacity; Apple’s costs rise and it cannot build Macs fast enough
China
Most of the supply chain sits in a country in a long-term trade war with the U.S.; Cook keeps the political file as executive chairman
The App Store toll
U.S. commission revenue fell 6% in the June quarter after a judge let developers charge on their own websites
Siri
OpenAI and SpaceX are building devices designed for AI from scratch; Apple has not defined the interface this time
What he has going for him
Demand. The iPhone 17 Pro sold at record volumes without much AI in it, on the strength of a better camera, a bigger battery and an orange color. The Mac is having a renaissance because Apple’s own chips run large language models well on a desktop. Services — apps, subscriptions, tens of billions of dollars a year from Google — are huge and profitable. And on September 9, at his first launch event, Ternus is expected to close with a foldable iPhone.
If he can speed up Siri and convince developers to open their apps to it, Apple could become the company that delivers AI to the most people. That is the bull case. It is also, at 33 times earnings, already the price.
What It Means For Your Portfolio
Hold — a great company at a full price; not added at 33 times
Apple stays in the Capital Wealth books at the weights it has. Cook’s record earned the position; Ternus has to earn the multiple, and we do not pay 33 times earnings for a stock growing half as fast as the market to find out.
Apple is, quietly, the largest single holding in a great many 401(k)s through the index. That is the concentration risk the equal-weight sleeve we added this week is designed to dilute — not because Apple is bad, but because it is big.
Watch the September 9 event for one thing: whether Siri opens to developers. That is the difference between a hardware company at a premium and a platform company that deserves one.
