Jason Zweig Says This Market Feels Like 1901. Then Came 1907, and Hetty Green Had the Cash.
Bucket shops became prediction markets, 10-to-1 margin became leveraged funds, and 319% turnover became three million same-day option trades. The bull market ran six more years. Then the Panic of 1907 took back everything the waiter made on Brooklyn Rapid Transit.
By Sean Anees Saifi · Capital Wealth · Published Tuesday, September 1, 2026 · Source: The Wall Street Journal, August 29–30 and September 1, 2026 editions
Key Points
1901: NYSE turnover hit 319% — the whole market changed hands every 16 weeks, a pace not exceeded for a century. 2026: more than 3 million daily trades in S&P 500 options that expire the same day.
1901: bucket shops let you bet $10 at 30-to-1 leverage on the next tick. 2026: prediction markets let you bet on bitcoin’s price 15 minutes from now.
1901: U.S. Steel became the first billion-dollar company. 2026: SpaceX became the first trillion-dollar IPO.
Stocks rose 19% in 1900, 20% in 1901, 5% in 1902, then 69% over three years — and then the Panic of 1907 crashed 30% and gave the country the Federal Reserve.
Hetty Green, 1908: “When the crash came I had money, and I was one of the very few who really had it… I had the cash, and they had to come to me.”
319%
NYSE turnover, 1901
3M+
same-day S&P option trades, daily
−30%
the Panic of 1907
6
years the party ran after 1901
Kalshi handed a former congressman a lifetime ban this week for betting on his own attendance. The bucket shops would have understood.
In one line: The fever can burn longer and hotter than anyone thinks and end faster than anyone imagines, and the people who kept cash were the ones everyone had to come to.
Jason Zweig went looking for the year this market rhymes with and did not stop at 1999. He stopped at 1901. That year the turnover rate on the New York Stock Exchange hit 319% — the entire market changed hands every sixteen weeks, a velocity not exceeded for more than a century. This year there are more than three million daily trades in S&P 500 options that expire the same day.
The parallels run down the page. Bucket shops, where you bet ten dollars at thirty-to-one leverage on whether the next tick in U.S. Leather would be up or down, called their customers “investors” and their business “democratization.” Prediction markets now let you wager on bitcoin’s price fifteen minutes from now or whether a broadcaster says “tush push.” Margin at ten times became leveraged funds and perpetual futures at a hundred. U.S. Steel became the first billion-dollar company in 1901; SpaceX became the first trillion-dollar IPO in 2026.
How long it ran
Year
Market
1900
+19%
1901
+20%
1902
+5%
1904–06
+69% over three years
1907
−30%; 10% in October alone; bank runs; the Federal Reserve is born
That is the first lesson, and it cuts both ways: the fever burned six years past the point where it looked like a fever. A waiter made $100,000 trading Brooklyn Rapid Transit, a sum “which Wall Street took back at a later date.” The trust companies — the original shadow banks — had lent to real-estate speculators and stock traders, and when depositors ran, the whole structure went.
The woman with the cash
Hetty Green, perhaps the first great long-term investor, lived by one rule: “Never speculate in Wall Street.” In 1908 she recalled the crash: “I had money, and I was one of the very few who really had it. The others had their ‘securities’ and their ‘values.’ I had the cash, and they had to come to me.” Zweig is not telling anyone to sell. He is telling them that the people who stayed calm and remote from the frenzy came out stronger, and that gambling in one corner of your financial life tends to infect the rest.
The Tuesday paper supplied the modern footnote. Kalshi banned George Santos for life for betting on whether he would attend the State of the Union and then posting misleadingly about it; a White House teleprompter operator gave up $107,000 in winnings; a KPMG employee is under investigation for betting on whether a company would beat earnings estimates. The bucket shops would have recognized every one of them.
What It Means For Your Portfolio
Hold — keep Hetty Green’s cash; do not fund the casino from the plan
The bills sleeve in the Capital Wealth Growth Portfolio is Hetty Green’s cash: it pays 4% while the fever runs and it is the money everyone has to come to when it breaks. Nothing this week argues for spending it on a leveraged fund.
We quote prediction-market odds in this letter every week as a crowd signal. We do not position client money on them, and a plan that has a “fun money” account should keep it small enough that 1907 would be a story rather than a catastrophe.
The dangerous version of 1901 is not the crash; it is the six years before it, when sitting out looks like a mistake every month. That is what a written allocation is for — it decides while you are calm.
