The hottest ticket on Wall Street this fall doesn’t have a set date, an exchange or public financials yet. Anthropic’s initial public offering — a company’s first sale of shares to the public — could raise up to $100 billion. It could also value the AI company at around $2 trillion, the Journal has reported. Those figures would top the records SpaceX set in June. Big numbers make people hurry. This one argues for patience.
What investors can’t see yet
Anthropic confidentially filed its IPO paperwork with the Securities and Exchange Commission in June. It hasn’t made that filing public yet, which has to happen before a roadshow — the tour where a company pitches its stock to investors. It also has to present its financials to analysts at its banks, whose valuation models some on Wall Street see as lofty.
The calendar isn’t settled, either. A late Labor Day, the coming Jewish holidays and a Federal Reserve meeting could all be reasons to wait, people familiar with the matter said. Holding off until October or later could let Anthropic share preliminary third-quarter results — handy if it expects strong numbers. Once financials reach investors, a listing typically takes three or more weeks.
Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are expected to land the top roles. One would serve as stabilization agent — the bank that opens the shares to trade and balances first-day moves. Neither role is final. Each bank earned $100 million on SpaceX’s offering. Nice work if you can get it.
Where your index fund fits
If you own an index fund, here’s the part that’s about you. SpaceX chose Nasdaq (NDAQ), and a key reason was a rule change that let large newly public companies join the Nasdaq-100 index months sooner than usual. Funds that track it, such as the popular QQQ from Invesco (IVZ), can then add the stock sooner — and that buying can give it upward momentum.
Anthropic hasn’t picked an exchange, so it’s too early to say when, or whether, a Nasdaq-100 fund would own it. Any lift from that buying reflects fund rules, not a fresh verdict on the business.
The AI listing line is getting longer. Nscale, a startup that has raised billions to build AI data centers, is preparing a potential IPO as soon as this month. It recently signed a $45 billion deal to rent Nvidia (NVDA) chips to Anthropic.
Before a headline sends you shopping, book fifteen minutes and bring your statement. It’s easier to find the umbrella before it rains.