Inflation Stayed Sturdy, the Fed Moved Closer to a Hike, and Brunch Is Over.

The Weekend paper arrived with Friday’s inflation report still warm. Core prices ran hot, futures moved to roughly 85% odds of a hike, and the argument inside the Fed turned to whether one would be enough. The week read two ways. Stocks got their Friday back, while bonds and oil kept their week. Exchange had the useful answer to inflation that won’t leave, Jason Zweig’s TIPS ladder. It also had Anthropic’s possible record IPO and Kalshi’s round-the-clock stock bets. Off Duty called time on brunch and put a 1,139-horsepower Porsche on the road. And the front section found America’s AI anxiety, a CIA officer accused of taking gold, a fight over what a rideshare should smell like, and college kickers finally getting paid.

The Weekend paper’s figures are Friday’s close, and the week reads two ways. Friday was a relief day. The S&P 500 rose 0.86% on a hot core inflation print, because the annual rate eased and crude slipped back under $100. The volatility index fell 11% to 15.84. The week wasn’t a relief. The S&P 500 finished down 0.80%, the Dow 1.57% and the Russell 2000 2.41%. The 10-year climbed to 4.975% and crude gained about 9%. Stocks got their Friday back. Bonds and oil kept their week, and that’s the setup the Fed walks into.

The signals point to caution in long bonds more than in stocks. The volatility index fell 11% on Friday to 15.84, and the curve of volatility futures steepened back into a calm upward slope. But the skew measure rose. That’s what traders pay for protection against a sudden drop. So the market is calm day to day and still paying up for a gap. Vol-of-vol finished at 91.3, just above the 90 line the September letter drew. With core inflation hot and a rate increase now the base case, the letter’s conditions for new money aren’t met. The answer for now is to wait. None of this is a forecast. It’s how the portfolios are positioned with two big events on next week’s calendar, the Fed’s decision Wednesday and Friday’s quarterly options expiration.

We pulled these Friday afternoon, after the inflation report. Prediction markets put about 80% odds on a rate increase at the Sept. 15–16 meeting, up from roughly 60% before the release. They put 94% odds on no rate cuts at all in 2026.

The longer-dated contracts were calmer than the headlines. A recession by the end of 2026 sat near 7%. The S&P 500 touching 7,400 at some point before year-end sat around 72%. On oil, the crowd gave roughly 34% odds to West Texas crude touching $110 this month. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by Dec. 31 got only 20%.

Read these as the crowd’s expectation at the moment we pulled them, and nothing more. They move during the day, and they’ve been wrong before. Fed Week’s edition, No. 170, carries Tuesday’s odds.

Crowd odds, not forecasts. Not investment advice.

Three things are worth fifteen minutes this weekend. First, where your idle cash sits. The gap between a bank money-market rate and a Treasury bill is still the widest easy money in the paper. Second, whether the spending you can put a date on is matched to money that comes due in that year. Think of the years before Social Security starts, a tuition bill or a planned purchase. That’s the idea behind the TIPS ladder in this weekend’s Intelligent Investor. Third, the fun money. The car, the trip, the ring. What it costs to own, insure and replace, not just what it costs to buy.

The September Letter · When, Not If · Fed Week · No. 170 · No. 168 · Pensions & Retirement Income · Capital Wealth Growth Portfolio