The Lakers’ Buyers See $30 Billion in a Decade. The Math Rests on One Assumption
Joshua Kushner and Bob Iger bought a franchise on track for $681 million in revenue this year. The pitch to co-investors is $30 billion in a decade — $62 billion if everything goes right — and the first leg of the climb starts with about 6,000 season tickets.
By Sean Anees Saifi · Capital Wealth · Published Monday, September 21, 2026 · Source: The Wall Street Journal, Monday, September 21, 2026 edition, whose market figures are the Friday, September 18 close
Key Points
A Thrive Capital investor presentation reviewed by the Journal projects the Lakers’ valuation reaching at least $30 billion within 10 years, from the $12.5 billion the Kushner–Iger group agreed last month to pay Mark Walter; under more favorable assumptions, $62 billion.
The base case assumes TV and streaming rights double in value. The NBA’s 2024 media partnerships are valued at $77 billion over 11 years and more than doubled the fees shared by teams; Thrive expects they could double again at renewal.
The team is on track for $681 million of 2026 revenue — tickets and gameday $245 million, local media $180 million, national media $144 million, sponsorships $80 million, league revenue $32 million. Costs of $552 million include players and coaches $251 million, business operations $150 million, the NBA assessment $96 million and team operations $55 million.
Thrive identifies about $150 million of new revenue by 2028, partly by reclaiming roughly 6,000 broker-held season tickets for single-game sales, lifting the average single-game price to $361 from $217, plus $40 million–$75 million in sponsorships and at least $20 million in cost savings.
Revenue is targeted at $1.6 billion by the end of 2037, with adjusted Ebitda rising from an estimated $129 million to more than $589 million. Thrive Eternal earlier bought a stake in the San Francisco Giants, and Jeanie Buss is fighting her five siblings to keep a piece of the team.
$12.5B
the valuation the Kushner–Iger group agreed to pay
$30B
the base-case value in a decade, if media rights double
$361
target average single-game ticket, up from $217
$681M
revenue the Lakers are on track for in 2026
A season ticket in a broker’s hands sells for the broker; the plan takes about 6,000 of them back and prices the average single game at $361, from $217.
In one line: Every big projection rests on one assumption, and the Lakers’ is that television and streaming rights double again — which is the same test worth running on your own plan.
Somewhere in a deck making the rounds among very rich people, the Los Angeles Lakers are already worth $30 billion. The group led by Joshua Kushner and Bob Iger — the former Walt Disney (DIS) chief — agreed last month to buy the team from Mark Walter at a $12.5 billion valuation, and according to an investor presentation from Kushner’s Thrive Capital reviewed by the Journal, they expect to nearly triple that within 10 years. It’s a sports story with a spreadsheet inside it, and the spreadsheet is the interesting part.
The business they’re inheriting is already a machine. Per the presentation, the Lakers are on track for $681 million of revenue in 2026: $245 million from tickets and gameday, $180 million in local media rights, $144 million in national media, $80 million in sponsorships and $32 million in league revenue. Costs run about $552 million — $251 million of it for players and coaches — leaving an estimated $129 million in adjusted Ebitda. The plan calls for revenue of at least $1.6 billion by the end of 2037 and adjusted Ebitda above $589 million.
Six thousand tickets and one big if
The near-term money is very specific. Thrive identifies roughly $150 million of incremental revenue by 2028, part of it from reclaiming about 6,000 broker-held season tickets and selling those seats game by game, which the presentation says would lift the average single-game price to $361 from $217. Ticket prices have been rising anyway, a person familiar with the situation told the Journal; the difference is who keeps the money. Add $40 million to $75 million in sponsorship opportunities and at least $20 million in cost savings, and that’s the first leg of the climb.
The second leg is the big one. The $30 billion base case assumes TV and streaming rights double in value. The NBA’s 2024 media partnerships were valued at $77 billion over 11 years and more than doubled the fees shared by teams, and Thrive’s presentation says it expects fees can double again when that pact comes up for negotiation. If everything breaks right, the presentation puts the long-term value at $62 billion.
Our read
Strip away the purple and gold and this is a plan with one load-bearing assumption. Tickets, sponsorships and cost savings are largely within the owners’ control; a media-rights deal that doubles again is a bet on what other people pay a decade from now. Every growth plan has a hinge like that, and the job is to find it. Your retirement plan has one too: the return assumption, the year you stop working, the house you plan to sell at a price nobody has offered yet. Run the plan without it. If the answer is fine, just slower, good. If the answer is everything breaks, that isn’t a plan; it’s a forecast wearing a plan’s clothes.
Two smaller lessons. Trophy assets — teams, art, the vineyard — are sold on best cases and are hard to exit, which is why they belong in the fun column of a plan rather than the income column; $62 billion is the pitch, not the price. And the ticket math is worth a second look: the average single-game price goes to $361 from $217 without a single extra game being played, because the team, not a broker, would be selling the seat. Growth that comes from taking back a middleman’s margin is real, and it’s mostly a one-time step up rather than a trend. Bring the plan, not the jersey; finding its hinge takes about fifteen minutes.
What It Means For Your Portfolio
Hold — find the one assumption your own plan can’t do without
The Lakers’ path from $12.5 billion to $30 billion runs through one assumption: media rights doubling again. Every plan has a hinge like that. Find yours before the decade does.
General planning principles, not advice for anyone in particular. A projection is only as good as its biggest assumption, and the useful discipline is to name it and then run the plan without it. For a household that’s usually the return assumption, the retirement date or a future home sale — if the plan survives with the hinge removed, it’s a plan; if it doesn’t, it’s a hope with a spreadsheet.
Trophy assets are priced on the favorable case and sold slowly, so they belong in the fun column, not the income column. And notice how ordinary the Lakers’ near-term growth is: the same seat, the same game, sold by the team instead of a broker, at $361 instead of $217. Prices were rising anyway; the plan changes who collects them — so when a growth story turns out to be a change in who keeps the money, count it once, not every year.
