William A. Galston's Politics & Ideas column digs into the constitutional architecture of war-making and concludes the founders stacked the deck in Congress's favor — but presidents now hold the edge. The Iran war is unpopular (55% opposed, 41% support per RealClearPolling); 7 in 10 Republicans still back it.
Three reasons Trump holds the cards
(1) House GOP unity: nearly 90% of Republican House members were elected with margins >10 points; 23 won by less, but most have strong incentives not to break with the president.
(2) Structural advantage: the U.S. went from a 200,000-soldier Army in 1939 to a permanent superpower military after WWII; that ratchet, plus Cold War-era global commitments, gave the executive a structural primacy in foreign policy that the founders didn't anticipate.
(3) War Powers Resolution is toothless: the 60-day clock closes Friday, May 1. A joint resolution to end hostilities would likely pass Congress; Trump would veto; the two-thirds override is out of reach. Courts have ruled lawmakers don't have standing.
The actual constitutional remedy — cutting off appropriations — only kicks in when the Defense Department runs out of discretionary funds and the president must request a supplemental. No one knows when that will be.
What this means for the energy + defense allocations
Galston's read is unambiguous: the Iran blockade can continue for as long as Trump wants it to, until the DOD runs short of supplemental appropriations. That puts a structural floor under crude prices and defense backlog visibility through summer. Combined with the U.A.E.-OPEC fracture and King Charles's NATO/AUKUS speech, this is the cleanest macro case for keeping Energy at 20% and Defense at 18% through Q3 2026. Watch for any Trump signal that the supplemental request is coming — that's the first clue the war is winding down.
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