Texas had the ball, a tie game and 20 seconds. Arch Manning threw off his back foot, and an Oklahoma defender caught it. A field goal later, Oklahoma won 27-24. A month before, Manning had led a 20-point comeback over Ohio State that made Texas No. 1. Robert O'Connell's column in Monday's Journal looks at what $40 million bought.
The Longhorns lost a 10-point lead to a .500 team that had dropped out of the Top 25. Manning threw two interceptions in the fourth quarter. One went back for a touchdown and gave Oklahoma its first lead of the day. His turnovers handed the Sooners 10 points. He said it himself afterward, “I can't be loose with the ball.”
The money is the story. After last season ended with no playoff, Texas spent more than $40 million in NIL money on this year's roster. It bought transfers like receiver Cam Coleman and running back Hollywood Smothers. The job was to build a perfect machine around a quarterback with a famous last name. The numbers so far, from Stats Perform, are plain. He throws for 224.4 yards a game, 53rd in the country. Two touchdowns a game, 32nd. His passer rating ranks 64th. He has five interceptions in five games, after seven in all of last season. About 3.4% of his throws go to the other team, a worse rate than 106 other quarterbacks.
Coach Steve Sarkisian trusted the offense so little late that he tried a 53-yard field goal on fourth-and-2. It missed. He isn't giving up. “We're not dead,” he said. The playoff has more spots now, so one loss leaves the door open. The Heisman talk has gone quiet, though. An Oklahoma State quarterback, Drew Mestemaker, is now pushing Manning for the top spot in the NFL draft.
Our read
This is Behavioral, and it's about concentration. Texas didn't buy a roster so much as a bet on one player, and it paid $40 million to make the bet bigger. When that one player has a bad afternoon, nothing else on the field can save it. Investors do the same thing with a stock they love. Often it's the employer's stock sitting in the 401(k), or the one name everyone at the barbecue agrees can't miss. The more you pay to make the position bigger, the more one off-balance throw costs. A famous name doesn't change the math. Neither does a great month in September.
Here's the check for this week. Open the 401(k) app and sort your holdings by size. Look at the biggest one and its share of the whole. Company stock deserves the hardest look, because your paycheck already rides on that company. If one stock is the quarterback of your plan, ask what happens to the plan on its worst Saturday. Write the share down and bring it to your next review. Spreading the bet is dull, and dull is what kept Oklahoma in the game. You pack the umbrella before kickoff, while the sky is still clear.