Jamie Dimon runs the biggest bank in America. On Tuesday, Oct. 13, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported a $15.31 billion quarterly profit. Then he said the quiet part. “We just don't know when it's going to stop,” he told analysts. He meant the good times. The stock fell anyway.
Four of the six biggest banks reported Tuesday. Between them, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) made $32 billion, 14% more than a year ago. Their combined revenue grew 9%, to $115 billion. The engines were stock trading and lending to the AI build-out. Goldman's revenue from trading stocks rose 72%. Only one quarter in its history was better for that business. Its total revenue rose 23% to $18.68 billion and profit rose 29% to $5.29 billion. Citigroup's profit jumped 40% to $5.25 billion. Its revenue rose 8% to $23.85 billion, its best third quarter in ten years. Wells Fargo's profit rose 6% to $5.95 billion.
JPMorgan was the odd one out. It earned $5.57 a share. Analysts wanted $5.93. Revenue rose 8% to $50.17 billion, short of the $51.23 billion expected. A $658 million loss on securities the bank holds did the damage. A bank's securities book is mostly bonds, and high rates are hard on bonds, even a bank's. Bond trading slowed at all four banks after September's jump in yields. Deals and IPOs stalled too. Bankers are waiting for the midterms to bring some calm, the Journal reports.
The warning inside the win
Higher rates help a bank and hurt it at the same time. Loans earn more. Deposits cost more, and a slower economy brings more bad loans. Wells Fargo's chief, Charlie Scharf, said inflation and higher rates are headwinds, and the longer they last, the more pressure they put on customers. The good news sits in the card data. JPMorgan's card spending rose 10% from a year ago, Wells Fargo's 11% and Citigroup's 12%. Lower-income households feel the rates more, Wells said, but they're stable. Investors heard the warning louder than the numbers. Citigroup fell 5.6%. The KBW bank index dropped 1.4% on the day. It's down 6.8% since the third quarter began, while the S&P 500 is up 4.1%.
Our read
This is Investments/Risk (IN04). The practice holds JPMorgan in 26 books and Goldman in 19, at weight, nothing added. Citigroup and Wells Fargo aren't held. Bank of America (BAC, 11 books) and Morgan Stanley (MS, 16) reported later in the week and belong to Part 2. Our stance doesn't change on one quarter. A bank earning $32 billion in three months is a healthy bank. A bank CEO who can't say when it stops is an honest one. Both things are true, and neither one is a reason to buy more.
Here's your check this week. JPMorgan took a $658 million loss on securities it owns, in a quarter when yields jumped. Your bond fund likely felt the same move, in smaller numbers. Open your 401(k) app and look at the bond fund's one-year return. If it's negative, that's mostly rates, and it's why the house keeps safe money in short bills. Then look at your own card statement. The banks say spending is still up 10% to 12%, and some of that is you. The time to tighten the budget is before the bank's warning turns into the news. Bring the fund's name and that number to your next review. Find the umbrella while the sky's still only gray.
