Import prices rose 1.1% in September and 8.1% in a year, before any tariff is counted

Import prices rose for a second straight month in September. The index leaves out tariffs and shipping, so it understates what lands at the dock.

By Sean Anees Saifi · Capital Wealth · Published Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · Source: The Wall Street Journal, October 17–18, 2026 weekend edition, whose market figures are the Friday, October 16 close (U.S. News)

Key Points

U.S. import prices rose 1.1% in September after 0.5% in August. Economists had expected 0.8%.
From a year earlier, import prices are up 8.1%. The index leaves out tariffs and shipping costs.
Fuel led. Petroleum import prices rose 4.6% in the month and 35.4% in a year. Natural gas is up 96.5% in a year.
It isn't only fuel. Nonfuel imports rose 0.7% in the month, led by capital goods, industrial supplies, consumer goods and auto parts.
The same paper reported core consumer prices up 0.33% in September, with the Fed meeting Oct. 27–28.

1.1%

Import prices, September, month over month

8.1%

Import prices, September, from a year earlier

35.4%

Petroleum import prices, from a year earlier

0.7%

Nonfuel import prices, September, month over month

Thick rope wound around a rusted iron bollard on a quay at sunrise, a moored cargo ship and its loading crane rising over still water and hills.

Import prices exclude tariffs and shipping, so the 8.1% yearly rise is before those costs are added.

In one line: What the U.S. pays for imports rose 8.1% in a year, before tariffs, and the rise is spreading past fuel.

Start at the dock. Every container that lands in the U.S. has a price tag before anyone adds a tariff or pays the shipper. That tag rose 1.1% in September. Over a year it is up 8.1%. The Labor Department reported the numbers on Friday, Oct. 16, and the Journal's Paulo Trevisani carried them in the Weekend paper.

It was the second monthly rise in a row. August was 0.5%. Economists polled by the Journal had expected 0.8% for September, so this came in hot. Fuel did most of the lifting. Petroleum import prices rose 4.6% in the month and 35.4% over the year. Natural gas rose 1.6% in the month and 96.5% over the year. That is the energy crunch from the Iran war, showing up at the port.

The part worth a second look is everything else. Nonfuel imports rose 0.7% in a month. The gains came from capital goods, industrial supplies, consumer goods other than cars, and cars and parts. That is the stuff of factories and store shelves. It's an early hint that imported inflation isn't only an oil story now.

Why the Fed cares

Put it beside the other numbers in the same paper. Core consumer prices rose 0.33% in September, the second firm month in a row. Consumer prices overall are up 3.7% from a year earlier. The Fed meets Oct. 27–28, and its chairman won't say what it does. Import prices feed into store prices with a lag. This month they pointed up.

Our read

This is Cash Flow M5 with a dash of Investments IN04. We don't forecast inflation, and one month doesn't make a trend. A 0.7% nonfuel gain on top of a fuel surge is worth watching, which is why the verdict is watch. The desk's answer to imported energy prices isn't new. Energy is held as the hedge, Chevron (CVX) in 37 books and ExxonMobil (XOM) in 34, at weight, nothing added. When fuel imports cost 35.4% more than a year ago, those names are the part of the book that doesn't mind.

Here's where this touches your plan. Every retirement projection has an inflation number buried in it, often 2.5% or 3%. It sets how fast your spending grows on paper. If prices run hotter than that number, the plan quietly promises more than the money can deliver. This week, open your plan or your 401(k) app's projection and find that one line. If it is under 3% and you haven't looked at it in a year, that is the check. We'd rather reset a number on paper now than reset a lifestyle later. Think of it as checking the roof while the sky's still clear, and we're happy to walk through it with you.

What It Means For Your Portfolio

Watch. Energy stays the hedge; check your plan's inflation line

Imported inflation is spreading past fuel, and your plan's inflation assumption is the first number it reaches.

General planning principles, not advice for anyone in particular. Keep an energy position as the hedge against fuel-driven inflation. Keep safe money short so it resets with rates. Check the inflation assumption in your retirement projection once a year, and sooner when the data runs hot.

Don't call this tariff inflation. The index leaves tariffs out, so any tariff is paid on top of these prices.