The grapes came up short this year, and the growers are relieved. That's California wine in one sentence, and Laura Cooper's feature on Friday's B1 doesn't soften it: the state's harvest could fall by as much as half. Michael Honig, president of Honig Vineyard & Winery in Napa, calls it “a godsend” — the short crop, he says, is keeping the business going. When a grower thanks the weather for a short crop, you've learned something about what a big one was worth.
Fewer Americans drink than at any point since Gallup started asking nearly 90 years ago: 54% say they drink at all, a low the poll hit last year and held this year. Among those who do, wine runs third — beer 36%, liquor 32%, wine 30%. Industry officials say most buyers, the ones who spend $20 or less a bottle, have cut back. Then a big, lucrative export market went quiet: Canada, which had averaged about $40 million of American wine a month, now takes just above $5 million, down some 90%, since most provinces pulled U.S. alcohol over tariffs. Stack that on the bumper 2023 and 2024 vintages, much of it still unsold. California grows roughly four-fifths of the country's wine, and its wineries shipped 203 million cases last year, 11% fewer than the year before.
So a short crop is welcome news. The Sonoma County Winegrowers estimate this year's at 35% to 40% lighter than average, after heavy rains and odd warm spells kept many grapes from fully developing, and fewer grapes means less new wine piled on top of the old. Some growers had already stopped waiting: fruit left to shrivel on the vine last year, vines ripped out, barley and hay planted. Juan Munoz-Oca, who directs the U.S. estates for Marchesi Antinori, reads all that as structural, not cyclical. Rabobank's Bourcard Nesin sees consolidation coming and warns many family growers may be forced out unless grape prices climb.
The winery with hooves
Which brings us to Livermore. Niki Wente, director of vineyard operations at Wente Family Vineyards, calls this “the wildest harvest I have ever experienced.” The family's Morning Fog Chardonnay was a big seller in Canada; last year its sales there fell to almost zero. But somewhere in 143 years the Wentes also became ranchers and hay farmers, and now they're leaning on it. Cattle graze some 1,500 acres of family land, and they'd like roughly 100 more while beef is dear. Hay goes in on about 400 sharecropped acres, against about 250 two years ago, and local farmers rent Monterey land for asparagus, corn and other produce. Wine is still the main business by far. It just isn't the only one that pays. Constellation Brands (STZ) chief Nick Fink, not a holding here, came through at harvest and hopes the industry has found bottom; a hope, not a reason to buy.
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This is a Career and business-owner piece with an Investments/Risk (IN04) spine, and the word for it is concentration. California wine had leaned on one product, mostly one price point, and a big export customer that a policy change all but switched off. Habits moved, a policy moved, and two good harvests became the problem. The Wentes weren't smarter about wine; over the years they'd let a second and third income line grow beside the first, so when the first went quiet there was something to lean on. Plenty of family businesses have exactly one line, and the owner's retirement account is often a fourth bet on the same thing.
The planning move is unglamorous: name your Canada. Which single customer, product or policy, if it went to almost zero, takes the business with it? Then make sure the household's savings don't rhyme with the business — a portfolio full of your own industry is the same bet twice. The second line is cheapest to start in a good year, when nobody thinks they need it. The Wentes can add acres now only because the hay and the herd were already there to add to.