Capital Wealth
TUESDAY CLOSE · OCT 27, 2026  |  S&P 500 7,722.60 ▲ 0.60%  ·  DJIA 52,377.57 ▲ 0.03%  ·  NASDAQ 26,477.81 ▲ 1.18%  ·  RUSSELL 2000 2,818.87 ▲ 1.16%  ·  10-YR 4.99%  ·  2-YR 4.74%  ·  WTI (DEC) $99.90 ▼ 1.83%  ·  GOLD $4,058.80 ▲ 0.91%  ·  VIX 17.52 ▼ 4.73%  ·  PHLX SEMIS 11,482.51 ▲ 3.60%
Capital Wealth Daily
The Monday to Wednesday Papers · Part 2 of 2 · Vol. III · No. 189 · WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2026

Ten Companies Carry a Near-Record Market

An empty, rain-wet Wall Street at dawn, stone facades and American flags on both sides, gray clouds breaking over the far end of the street
The Lead · Earnings & the Index · Tuesday’s Close

Analysts expect S&P 500 profits up 30% this quarter. Nvidia and Micron supply 34% of that growth, ten companies about two-thirds, the rest about 10%.

Analysts expect S&P 500 companies to report third-quarter profits up 30% from a year ago. The Journal counted who supplies the growth. Nvidia and Micron alone account for 34% of it. Ten companies, Broadcom and Meta among them, supply about two-thirds. Take the ten out and the rest of the index still grows profits about 10%. Stocks rose into the Fed meeting. The S&P 500 gained 0.70% Monday and 0.60% Tuesday, to 7,722.60, about 1.23% under its Oct. 6 record. Chip stocks led, up 2.82% Monday and 3.60% Tuesday. The 10-year Treasury yield closed Tuesday at 4.992%. Wednesday's news is our own pull after the close, not in the papers. The Fed held its rate at 3.75% to 4%, with two officials voting for a hike, and the S&P 500 closed at 7,743.98.

Our TakeA fund with 500 names sounds spread out. This quarter, ten of them carry most of the profit growth, so the fund is more concentrated than its name suggests. Look up how much of your fund sits in its ten biggest names. Keep the money you need within two to three years outside stocks.

WatchWatch. Count the ten names your index fund leans on
THE MINUTE · THREE PAPERS AND A FED DAY, IN 60 SECONDS
1

Ten companies, two-thirds of the growth. Analysts expect S&P 500 profits up 30% this quarter. Ten companies supply about two-thirds of that growth, and Nvidia and Micron alone supply 34%.

2

Two up days into the Fed. The S&P 500 rose 0.70% Monday and 0.60% Tuesday, to 7,722.60, 1.23% under its Oct. 6 record. The VIX fell to 17.52.

3

The Fed held, and two dissented. Our own pull, not in the papers. The Fed held at 3.75% to 4% Wednesday, and two officials voted to hike. The crowd prices a December hike at 78.5%.

4

A $7 toy, and grandparents at 57. Personal Journal prices a $7 plush toy at $364 a year and buys it anyway. New grandmothers now start at a median 57, up from 44 in 1960.

5

What we did, which was wait. Nothing bought, nothing trimmed. This week's letter grades our own predictions from September and the October Letter. The North Star's next third is written for the week of Nov. 3, or 6,863 first.

7,722.60
S&P 500 Tuesday · 1.23% under the Oct. 6 record
Oct. 20: 7,712.57Oct. 21: 7,757.17Oct. 22: 7,663.43Oct. 23: 7,623.68Oct. 26: 7,676.77Oct. 27: 7,722.60
Six closes, Oct. 20 to Oct. 27. Line: the Oct. 6 record, 7,818.93.
17.52
VIX Tuesday · the fear gauge, down from 19.45 Friday
Oct. 20: 17.31Oct. 21: 16.68Oct. 22: 19.03Oct. 23: 19.45Oct. 26: 18.39Oct. 27: 17.52
Six closes, Oct. 20 to Oct. 27. Wednesday 16.91 by our own pull.
4.992%
10-year Treasury yield Tuesday · near 5% for weeks
Oct. 20: 5.116%Oct. 21: 5.145%Oct. 22: 4.952%Oct. 23: 4.987%Oct. 26: 4.987%Oct. 27: 4.992%
Six closes, Oct. 20 to Oct. 27.
$99.90
Oil (WTI, December contract) Tuesday · down from $103.27 Friday
Oct. 20: $97.82Oct. 21: $97.15Oct. 22: $99.47Oct. 23: $103.27Oct. 26: $101.76Oct. 27: $99.90
Six closes of the December contract, Oct. 20 to Oct. 27.

The Human File

8 stories · 3 pictured · 5 listed
Boston's accent auditions, the dog-treat war, Brewers fans who flew to Florida, and Harley's 358 electric bikes.
An empty airport gate at dawn, rows of blue seats facing tall windows and a jet bridge, a wooden podium by the door and a row of blank screens overhead.
Page One · Second Acts

A 76-year-old retired DMV worker wants her grandkids to hear Yaya at Logan Airport.

A 76-year-old tried out for a job with no prize money, so her grandkids can hear her at the gate. Write a purpose line into your retirement plan this week.

Hold
A fluffy white dog in a blue harness sits on a sidewalk outside a fenced dog park, tongue out, while a group of people stands talking behind it on an overcast day.
Page One · Pets

Some dog trainers call the others treat-slinging wieners. No license is needed to be one. Vet yours.

Trainers are calling each other names over treats, and nobody checks a license. Before you hire one, get the method, the sessions and the total price in writing.

Watch
A blank metal card rests on a kraft envelope on a worn wooden table by an airport window, jets parked at the gates outside in soft golden light.
Sports · World Series

A $500 seat in Florida beat $2,500 at home, so Brewers fans flew. Price the whole trip, always.

Flights, a hotel and a $500 seat still beat a $2,500 seat at home. The fans did that math. Price your next splurge the whole-trip way before you buy.

Hold
Also in The Human File
  1. A card terminal and a curling receipt roll on a worn wooden shop counter, an empty stool by the front window, late-afternoon lightPersonal Journal · HalloweenCandy corn began as fake chicken feed and Spirit Halloween as a slow October. Both were small bets.Watch
  2. An empty factory floor under bright overhead lights, yellow lane lines running toward a closed roller door, stacked wooden pallets on the left and idle machines on the right.Business & Finance · Harley-DavidsonHarley's electric spinoff forecast 100,000 bikes a year. By midyear it had shipped 358.Watch
  3. A dark electric SUV parked at the edge of a still mountain lake at dusk, its headlights on and its reflection in the water under a purple sky.Business & Finance · CMO TodayCar ads in week-one NFL games fell to 107 from 158. The deals moved to the local dealer.Hold
  4. A long strip of cream paper tape unspooled in loose loops across a wooden desk, the rest of the roll lying at one end in soft, even light.Opinion · Bob GreeneIn 1961 a computer wrote a 511-page book in 112 hours. Over 300 sold. The panic isn't new.Hold
  5. A tan and green fixed-wing drone rests on a metal launch rail in a dry desert, scrub brush and cracked earth around it, rocky hills on the horizon under a pale sky.U.S. News · Defense StartupsA startup that wants to clone military dogs raised $200 million at $1.2 billion. No puppies yet.Watch

Life · Personal Journal

9 stories · 3 pictured · 6 listed
A $7 plush toy, grandparents at 57, who picks up the tab, CEOs back at school, and a $2,000 phone that broke in five minutes.
A claw machine piled with plush bears, unicorns and stars in a busy arcade, a woman's hands on the joystick and buttons as the metal claw hangs above a purple bear.
Personal Journal · Kids & Money

A money reporter knows $7 a week is $364 a year. She bought her 5-year-old the stuffie anyway.

Small spending compounds, and so does a small joy. Put the gift line in your budget on purpose, then say yes without guilt.

Hold
A gray-haired grandmother on a garden bench helps a little girl in overalls hold a seedling, while a grandfather and a boy with a watering can tend a raised bed behind them.
U.S. News · Grandparents

The typical new grandma is 57, up from 44 in 1960. Put the grandparent years in the plan.

The grandparent years are shorter now, and they cost real money and hours. Put the help and the move in the retirement plan, and spend the good years early.

Hold
A chef's hands plate a small dessert with tweezers on a long wooden restaurant counter under a warm pendant lamp, diners talking at tables in the dim room behind.
Personal Journal · Friends & Money

One friend always fronts the bill. Nearly 20% of young adults say repaying can take up to a month.

A fronted bill is a loan with no due date, to a friend or a grown kid. Set the pay-back window when the money leaves, and list what you're owed.

Hold
Also in Life · Personal Journal
  1. An empty classroom in late-afternoon light, blue chairs stacked upside down on the desks, a blank whiteboard and two corkboards on the wall below a round clock.Personal Journal · On the ClockHarvard has new CEOs write their retirement speech early on. You can do it this weekend.Hold
  2. Long rows of young leafy crops with drip lines running toward the horizon at sunrise, a farmhouse, outbuildings and a tractor small in the distance.Personal Journal · Small BusinessHalf of new firms die in five years, and 45 to 54 is the top age to start one. Don't bet the 401(k).Watch
  3. An amber pill bottle with a blank cream label stands on a folded paper beside a pair of tortoiseshell glasses on a granite kitchen counter, soft window light.Personal Journal · WellnessChristina Applegate learned she never had MS. An estimated 15% of MS diagnoses are wrong.Watch
  4. A single small plate with a seared scallop and a few edible flowers sits at the center of a long, empty farmhouse table in soft daylight from a window.Personal Journal · Your HealthNursing mothers may now consider a GLP-1 after month one. Postpartum starts rose 24-fold since 2018.Watch
  5. An opened letter and its torn envelope on a wooden kitchen table beside a mug of coffee and a pair of reading glasses, gray daylight through the window blinds.Opinion · LettersNearly 60% of men 80 and up had prostate cancer they never knew about. Ask what a test changes.Watch
  6. A black smartphone lies face down on a dark workbench under a single light, a steel caliper and a blueprint of a phone beside it in an otherwise dim room.Personal Journal · Personal TechnologyA $2,000 iPhone Duo broke five minutes out of the box. Know the return window before you buy.Hold

Style & Fashion

3 stories
The Dude's cardigan as a friend filter, Gucci's slide, and men out-spending women on Botox.
Four laughing older friends reach in with forks to share one slice of chocolate cake at a candlelit restaurant table, warm evening light around them.
Opinion · Style

The Dude’s cardigan wins a lawyer a friend at every party. Buy one piece you’ll wear for years.

Clothes bought for one night cost their whole price that night. Buy one piece you love, wear it for years and let it start the conversation.

Hold
A vast glass-and-marble atrium with a steel spiral staircase, a skylight overhead and a few people walking across the polished floor in cool daylight.
Business & Finance · Luxury

Gucci sales fell 6% and Kering lost nearly 17% in a day. Liking a brand isn’t a reason to own it.

When one brand is half the company, one bad quarter is the whole stock. Check the weight of any stock you own because you love the product.

Watch
A green canvas zip pouch spills an amber roller bottle, a smooth stone and wrapped sweets onto a linen cloth by a window, a mug and dried lavender behind.
Personal Journal · Wellness

Men spend $529 a visit on Botox every four months. That’s about $1,587 a year. Budget for it.

A $529 visit feels like a treat. Three a year is a subscription. Write every repeating treatment into the budget as a yearly number.

Hold

Your Money & The Economy

12 stories · 3 pictured · 9 listed
Card issuers come for points hoarders, prices that change by phone, Microsoft's buyout to 60,000, and loans against your stocks.
Travelers in silhouette pull rolling suitcases across a reflective airport concourse as a jet climbs past tall windows into an orange sunset sky.
Your Money · Credit Cards

He told 200,000 followers how to get 5,000 free points. Chase canceled his cards.

Card points are a perk the bank can take back at any time. Redeem them on a schedule and count your new cards before you apply.

Hold
A hand holds a smartphone showing a glowing blue sound-wave orb above a sunlit wooden kitchen counter, envelopes and a mug in soft focus behind.
Your Money · Shopping

A hard drive was $369 on his phone and $110 less on his wife’s. Check twice before you buy.

Stores say they don’t price by person, and the gaps still happen. Check any big online purchase on a second device before you pay.

Hold
A closed cream folder with a black pen on top lies on an oak desk beside a mug of black coffee on a wooden coaster, warm light from a window.
Your Money · Career

Microsoft offered buyouts to 60,000 people, a quarter of its staff. Here’s how to weigh one.

Buyouts draw people a few years from retirement, and layoffs often follow. Price your bridge to Medicare and Social Security before you price the check.

Hold
Also in Your Money & The Economy
  1. A ring of brass keys, a brown leather folder and a dark fountain pen rest on a white marble counter in a wood-paneled room, low side light.Your Money · BorrowingLoans against stocks hit $5.4 trillion. In a downturn, lenders sell your shares immediately.Watch
  2. Stacks of red, blue and white poker chips and a deck of cards sit on a dark wood desk, a blurred monitor with a market chart glowing behind.Heard on the Street · Fund FeesA high-yield Tesla fund trailed plain Tesla stock by 66 points. Check the price tag first.Avoid
  3. A worn bentwood armchair with a canvas seat sits on a white plinth behind a rope barrier in a dim gray gallery, lit by a single spotlight.Heard on the Street · CollectiblesFive years ago a cartoon ape sold for $3.4 million. Offers today are about 97% lower.Avoid
  4. A long row of gray metal filing cabinets lines an empty office corridor under fluorescent lights, one drawer pulled open to show manila folders.Markets · Investor ProtectionThe SEC is checking advisers who pitch pre-IPO shares via SPVs. Ask for proof the fund owns them.Watch
  5. A black graduation cap with its tassel rests on a thick stack of printed statements beside a calculator and a coffee mug on a sunlit wooden table.Personal Journal · Student LoansHer dad cosigned a $54,000 private loan for med school. Cosigning makes it your debt too.Watch
  6. A neoclassical marble building with a row of tall columns stands under heavy storm clouds at dusk, a single upper window lit.U.S. News · Greg IpOfficials call 3.75% to 4% high. The market prices 4.3% for a decade. Plan for rates that stay.Hold
  7. A single cardboard voting booth stands in the middle of an empty community hall with a worn wooden floor, blue chairs stacked against the brick wall.Page One · Ballot TaxesCalifornia votes on a one-time 5% billionaire tax. Colorado on an 8.4% top rate. Both on Nov. 3.Watch
  8. A two-story brick house glows at dusk on a quiet street, its porch light on and moving boxes stacked by the front steps, a garage to one side.U.S. News · Home PricesHome prices rose 2.1% and still trailed inflation, 15 months running. Your house is shelter first.Hold
  9. Four empty blue chairs line a pale green wall under a window with half-drawn blinds in a small clinic waiting room, sunlight striping the floor.Business & Finance · HCA HealthcareHCA took a $400 million hit from uninsured patients. Most had lost exchange plans. Check yours.Hold

Business & Finance

10 stories · 3 pictured · 7 listed
A $50 million WNBA team, an options rescue, Ben & Jerry's employee buyout, and rare earths mined from old wind turbines.
A referee signals with both arms in front of a packed, cheering stand at a floodlit night soccer match, a giant video screen glowing above the crowd.
Sports · Business of the WNBA

Joe Lacob paid $50 million for a WNBA team in 2023. New teams now go for $250 million.

Cheap and unloved can pay, but only for the owner who can fund the plan and wait. Size your speculative bets so two bad years don't move your retirement date.

Hold
An empty wood-paneled boardroom with a long table set with blank nameplates, water glasses and a leather folio, black leather chairs on both sides.
Business & Finance · Governance

Trade Desk stock fell 66%. Insiders got their options repriced, and the CEO's votes made it pass.

When you buy a share, you buy the profits, and someone else may own the votes. Check the voting power table in the proxy before you buy any single stock.

Watch
A brown-and-white pony grazes beside a white rail fence at sunset, a white farmhouse with a long porch under moss-draped oaks behind it.
Business & Finance · Deals

Ben Cohen, 75, wants Ben & Jerry's owned by its workers. The brand could be worth $3 billion.

Every business owner leaves one day, through family, a buyer or the employees. Map all three exits and the after-tax number each leaves you, years before you need one.

Watch
Also in Business & Finance
  1. A dismantled metal part, a coil trailing colored wires, hand tools and a taped cardboard box sit on a scarred workbench under a caged hanging lamp.Business & Finance · EnergyOne old wind turbine can hold $100,000 of rare earths. Until now it went to the slag pile.Hold
  2. An empty black leather chair sits behind a wooden desk with a closed laptop in a glass corner office, gray towers fading into mist outside.Business & Finance · Executive PayFedEx paid its new CFO $5 million for the AutoZone stock he left behind. Count yours before you go.Watch
  3. An open blue cooler packed with ice and bottled water sits on gravel beside the rear step of a white van, golden low sun over a field behind.Business & Finance · DealsDoorDash may buy Instacart for $17 billion. Fewer apps rarely means cheaper groceries at your door.Watch
  4. Headlight trails sweep along a curving elevated freeway interchange at night, a downtown skyline glittering on the horizon under a deep blue sky.Business & Finance · MarketsGM leaves the NYSE for Nasdaq on Nov. 17. Your tech index fund may soon own a Detroit carmaker.Hold
  5. Rows of empty wooden benches fill an old courtroom gallery, afternoon sun slanting through tall arched windows across the worn floor and runner.Business & Finance · Law FirmsThe firm that ran the Lehman and Enron bankruptcies hired a bankruptcy lawyer. The client is itself.Watch
  6. An aerial view at dusk of a sprawling data center campus, long white-roofed halls ringed by rows of cooling units, flat farmland and a river beyond.Business & Finance · Property ReportYards that stage data-center gear rent for 32% more than in 2021. The dull stuff gets paid too.Watch
  7. An empty stadium at night under bright floodlights, a freshly striped green pitch ringed by tiers of dark blue seats, a stairway in the foreground.Business & Finance · Business NewsJay-Z said no to the halftime show in 2018. Now his own company has booked him for 2027.Hold

Markets & The Money

13 stories · 3 pictured · 10 listed
Ten companies, two-thirds of the profit growth; stocks near the record into the Fed; Brazil's crash; Meta's $95 billion share sale.
Office workers in dark coats stream through revolving glass doors across a polished granite lobby, blurred by motion, while one man stands still reading a folded paper.
Markets · Fed Week

Stocks rose into the Fed meeting and the 10-year hit 4.992%. Check what your cash earns.

The market moved before the Fed spoke, and it'll move again after. Leave Fed day alone, and make sure your cash earns close to the 4.050% a Treasury bill paid Monday.

Hold
An empty witness table in a wood-paneled hearing room, a gooseneck microphone, a glass of water and a closed leather folder on it, rows of empty seats behind.
U.S. News · The Fed

Hike odds swung from 70% to 15% in a month. 16 officials, 59 comments. Plan for rates that stay.

The Fed's own talk, more than the data, set up this week's expected hold. Price every variable-rate loan you carry as if rates stay here through 2027.

Hold
A lone figure walks across a wide, wet beach at low tide under a heavy gray sky, the clouds mirrored in the sand and surf breaking far behind.
Page One · Brazil

One election took 14% off Brazil's index and 48% off a broker in a day. Check your foreign fund.

A crowd that bets on one election result can lose 14% in a day. Open your emerging-markets fund this week and check how much sits in any one country.

Hold
Also in Markets & The Money
  1. A long aisle between rows of black server cabinets in a data hall, cable trays and blue cabling overhead, pendant lamps leading to a bright window at the far end.Markets · MetaMeta plans to sell up to $95 billion of new stock to fund AI. Every old share gets a smaller slice.Hold
  2. A dim office corridor lined with closed wooden doors under fluorescent lights, a brass stanchion and red velvet rope across the way, the far end lost in darkness.Page One · Private EquityPrivate equity faces a $300 billion debt wall. Returns fell under 10%. Check what you own there.Watch
  3. A brass pressure gauge with a blank, weathered face sits atop a rusted valve wheel on an old pipeline crossing desert scrub, low hills in soft evening light.Heard on the Street · GE VernovaGE Vernova’s German twin sells more gas turbines and costs 42% less. Same business, two prices.Hold
  4. Rows of black server cabinets in a bright, empty white hall, one cabinet door standing open, cable trays running along the ceilingU.S. News · Data CentersMore than 40 local measures on Nov. 3 could slow data centers. The AI build-out has a ballot risk.Watch
  5. An older man and woman, seen from behind, sit at a wooden table going through stacks of paper files, reading glasses and a mug between them, daylight from a window.Markets · Public PensionsAI stocks drove 57% of big pensions’ U.S. stock gains. Your index fund probably leans the same way.Hold
  6. A tall house of plain white cards stands on a dark wooden table, one card tilting loose from a middle tier, warm side light against a dark room.Markets · StreetwiseFrance runs a 5% deficit, grows 3% at best and paid 5% to borrow. The math doesn’t close.Hold
  7. Two rows of large white cylindrical storage tanks joined by steel pipework on a flat coastal site, seen from above under a heavy gray, overcast sky.Markets · EnergyEuropean gas hit a four-year high with storage 74.6% full. Winter hasn’t started yet.Hold
  8. A container port at dusk, stacked boxes and orange-lit gantry cranes along a quay, a cargo ship moored on calm water that reflects the last light.Markets · ChinaChina says it grew 4.5%. Outside estimates run from 0% to 3%. Check the China in your fund.Hold
  9. An empty steel shipping cradle with loose black straps sits on the chalk-marked concrete floor of a vast, dim factory hall, tall windows along one wall.Business & Finance · EarningsBoeing lost $116 million and fell 11%. Coke beat, raised its outlook and still dipped.Hold
  10. Wide marble steps lead up to a row of fluted columns and tall bronze doors on a neoclassical building, a deep shadow cutting across the steps under a cloudy sky.Markets · This Day in HistoryOn this day in 1929 the Dow fell 13.5%. Packard lost half its value. Know your own bad-day number.Hold

Arts & Review

3 stories
Britain's witch panic, The Gilded Age's return, and a century of horror props.
A clear glass sphere rests on a folded linen cloth on an old wooden desk by a window, an ink bottle, worn books and a brass lamp soft in the background.
Books · Bookshelf

The 1640s witchfinders billed towns by the visit. The accused were often widows on parish relief.

The accused cost the parish money. The accusers were paid by the visit. Name the one person who'd sit beside your spouse at every money meeting in the first year.

Watch
A rack of vintage jackets on wooden hangers, a navy wool bomber in front with a handwritten paper tag, tweed, leather and denim behind in a busy secondhand shop.
Arts in Review · Television

The Gilded Age returns Sunday in 1886 with the cast in on the joke. Old money dresses quietly.

Bertha spends to be seen. Agnes already belongs, so she doesn't have to. Mark the purchases on last month's statement that were made for an audience, and cap that line.

Hold
A heavy steel door stands ajar in a dark concrete basement corridor, cold blue light spilling out from racks of cabled equipment in the room beyond.
Arts in Review · Exhibition

Lugosi kept his Dracula cape for life. It's one of nearly 400 horror props in LA through July 2027.

The ticket is never the whole cost of a museum day. Set the day's number, extras included, before anyone finds the car keys.

Hold
Back · Part 1 of 2 · the weekend paperCountry clubs with waterslides, Seinfeld’s $110 million no, women watch collectors, and the down week to Friday.
From the desk Bias, the book, what’s priced, the planopen
In this edition

This is Part 2, the Monday to Wednesday papers, plus the Fed day. Part 1 took the weekend paper. The lead is Two Stocks Supply 34% of the S&P 500's Profit Growth. Ten Supply Two-Thirds. Your Index Fund Is Narrower Than It Looks. Stocks rose Monday and Tuesday, and the S&P 500 sat about 1% under its record going into the Fed meeting. The decision came after the papers went to press, so every Wednesday number here is our own pull, labeled as such. The life side has a $7 plush toy, grandparents at 57, Boston's accent auditions and the dog-treat war. Your Money carries Microsoft's buyout to 60,000 and loans against your stocks. This week's letter grades our own predictions from September and the October Letter, so we won't repeat the scorecard here. We bought nothing and trimmed nothing. The North Star's next third waits for the week of Nov. 3, or 6,863 first.

What we did
Nothing bought, nothing trimmed. The North Star’s next third is written for the week of Nov. 3, or 6,863 first. That decision comes in writing next week.Valero fell 9.2% Tuesday with the other refiners, and no story in the papers says why. Held at 3.0% in ten books. No diesel export limit has been announced.CoreWeave hit a new 52-week low of $51.24 Monday, then rose 7.9% Tuesday. Held in its one sleeve at 16%.This week’s letter grades our own calls: the 7% drop before Nov. 3, the falsifier, the Fed and the buy levels.
The Planning Desk Wrap · the papers of Oct. 26 to 28

The S&P 500 fell 0.47% last week. This week it turned up. Monday it rose 0.70% to 7,676.77, and Tuesday 0.60% to 7,722.60, about 1.23% under its record. Chip stocks led both days, up 2.82% and then 3.60%. Monday's loud story was Brazil, where the stock index fell nearly 14% after Lula's win. Meta said it plans to sell up to $95 billion of new stock, in waves, to pay for AI. Microsoft offered buyouts to about 60,000 employees. Valero fell 9.2% Tuesday with the other refiners, and no story in the papers says why. December crude settled at $99.90, and gold at $4,058.80. Under the hood, new lows outnumbered new highs on both days, even as the indexes rose. Wednesday's numbers are our own pull after the close, not in the papers. The Fed held, 10 votes to 2, and the S&P 500 closed at 7,743.98.

The week in the Capital Wealth Growth Portfolio
REINFORCE
SGOV, USFR — Treasury bills and floating-rate paper stay the reserve. The average bank money-market account pays 0.45%. A 13-week bill paid about 4% at this week’s auctions. Nothing new bought.
HOLD
RSP, GEV, VST, MU — The North Star’s first third went in on Saturday, Oct. 17, ahead of the written 7,175 level: equal weight first, then the power builders, then a small slice of Micron. Held. The other two thirds wait for 6,863 or the week of Nov. 3, as written.
HOLD
VLO, XOM, CVX — Valero fell 9.2% Tuesday to $387.34, with Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 down too. No story says why. Held in 12 books, at 3.0% in ten. Its trim rule is a White House limit on diesel exports. None announced, though the crowd’s odds of one by Dec. 31 rose to 18%.
HOLD
CRWV — CoreWeave hit a new 52-week low of $51.24 Monday and rose 7.9% Tuesday. One sleeve at 16%. Held. A trim stays Sean’s call.
The Weather
Bias: Neutral · Confidence: medium-low · 1-week lean: event-bound (the vote on Nov. 3, more big-tech earnings, December hike pricing) · 1-month lean: cautious; the Fed still leans up
9-day: 15.6015.609-DAY30-day: 16.9116.9130-DAY3-month: 19.2219.223-MONTH6-month: 21.2421.246-MONTH

The VIX curve at Wednesday’s close, by our own pull of Cboe data: each horizon higher than the last, a calm base.

All of this is our own pull at Wednesday's close, from Cboe at 4:15 p.m. ET, not in the papers. The VIX closed at 16.91, down from 19.45 on Friday. The volatility curve slopes up, from 15.60 for nine days to 16.91 for 30 days, 19.22 for three months and 21.24 for six. That shape is the calm base. Vol-of-vol, the price of insurance on the VIX itself, sits at 96.61. That's still above the 90 line September set, so the veto on hedges stays lifted. The hedge decision stays open, and it's Sean's. SKEW, a gauge of demand for crash insurance, fell to 148.74 from 168.59 on Oct. 16. The equity put/call ratio closed at 0.54, which reads as a lot of calm. In plain words, calm is back. Calm is when an umbrella is cheap. None of this is a forecast.

What the market has priced
The Fed in December
Polymarket, our own pull, 7:31 p.m. PT Wed., Oct. 28
+0.25 pt 78.5%no change 18.5%+0.50 pt 2.5%

The Fed, December (Polymarket, our own pull, 7:31 p.m. PT Wednesday, after the hold): a quarter-point hike 78.5%, no change 18.5%, a half point 2.5%. Another hike in 2026 at all: 79.5%. Reports after the decision put CME futures near 82.6% on a December hike.

The economy (same pull): a U.S. recession by the end of 2026 at 6.5%; by the end of 2027 at 35%. October core CPI for the month: 0.3% the likeliest bucket at 33.5%, 0.2% at 29%.

The S&P 500 by the end of December (same pull): touching 7,400 at 53%, 7,200 at 31.5%, 8,000 at 56.5%. The midterms: Democrats win the House 92.5%, the Senate 67.5%. A U.S. diesel export ban by Dec. 31: 18%, up from 11% a week ago.

Market-implied expectations, not forecasts. Crowd prices move intraday and have been wrong before. Sports and betting markets are never featured. Not investment advice.

Closes · Tuesday, October 27 (Wednesday by our own pull)
S&P7,722.60 +0.60%
DJIA52,377.57 +0.03%
NASDAQ26,477.81 +1.18%
RUSSELL2,818.87 +1.16%
10Y4.992%
2Y4.735%
OIL (DEC)$99.90 −1.83%
GOLD$4,058.80 +0.91%
VIX17.52 −4.73%
SEMIS11,482.51 +3.60%
S&P WED (OUR PULL)7,743.98 +0.28%
VIX WED (OUR PULL)16.91
For the plan

Four situations, general principles only, not advice for anyone in particular. If you're retired and drawing income, count the years of spending you hold outside stocks. If it's under two, fix it this week, in steps, while the index sits within about 1% of its record. If you're five years out, pull up the target mix you set and compare it with today's. The stock share has likely drifted up this year, so rebalance back to the number you chose. If you're still saving, keep buying on your schedule. A near-record market is not a reason to stop. If a buyout landed on you, as it did for about 60,000 at Microsoft, run the numbers before you sign. Price the bridge to Medicare and Social Security before you price the check. Then leave Fed day alone.

Fifteen minutes

A fund that leans on ten names more than you knew. A cash pile with less than two years in it. A buyout letter with a deadline. The sky is clear this week, and clear skies are when an umbrella costs the least. Fifteen minutes is enough to check yours. Bring your statement.

Book 15 minutes — phone or Zoom →
Related

The October Letter · Everything but the Timer · The September Letter · When, Not If · The North Star · No. 188 · Part 1 · the weekend paper · No. 187 · The Money Moved. It Didn’t Leave. · Capital Wealth Growth Portfolio

Capital Wealth Daily · Vol. III · No. 189 · Part 2 of 2 · Wednesday, October 28, 2026. Reported from The Wall Street Journal of Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, October 26, 27 and 28, 2026 (Page One, U.S. and World News, Personal Journal, Arts in Review, Business & Finance, Heard on the Street, the opinion pages and Sports), whose market tables are the Friday, Monday and Tuesday closes (October 23, 26 and 27). Wednesday’s Fed decision, Wednesday’s close and the volatility and prediction-market readings are the desk’s own pull after the close (Cboe 4:15 p.m. ET; Polymarket 7:31 p.m. PT), not from the papers. Some percentage changes are computed from the printed closes. Written by Sean Anees Saifi. General information, not investment advice.