Capital WealthThe Fed Raised Rates, the Ten-Year Settled Above 5%, and the Rule We Published Said Wait.
- The Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time in three years — a quarter point, to 3.75%–4%, approved unanimously. Three months ago the same committee voted unanimously to hold.
- The 10-year Treasury settled above 5% for the first time since July 2007. The last eight times it closed above that line, it was back below within two months — averaging twelve trading days.
- It is not meant to be the last one. Sixteen of eighteen meeting participants penciled in at least one more increase this year, and rate futures put roughly 90% odds on it. Goldman’s base case is December.
- The inflation a quarter point cannot reach. Diesel hit $6.29, up 68% on the year, and the former New York Fed president says it is behaving as though oil were at $200. Transports fell 2.78%.
- Nothing new was bought. The September letter set three conditions for new money and this week failed two outright. The safe money stays in bills paying near 3.8% against a 0.44% national average.
The Fed Raised Rates for the First Time in Three Years
A unanimous quarter-point increase to 3.75%–4%, with 16 of 18 officials signaling at least one more this year — and a chairman who said inflation has been too high for too long.
A hike is not a reason to trade; it is a reason to check duration. Action: nothing new bought — the published rule failed two of its three tests, so the safe money stays short.
Genghis Khan had the rainiest decades in 2,000 years. Belichick had Brady.
Jared Diamond asks how much leaders really matter — and finds Botswana’s first president irreplaceable and Jeff Bezos replaceable.
Our TakeEvery track record is an unresolved argument between skill and weather. Ask what the climate was doing before you buy the record.
A sales manager in Indiana spotted the flaw a $5 million quarterback couldn’t see
Dante Moore’s foot position told defenses what was coming. A former backup caught it from his sofa, 700 miles away.
Our TakeOrganizations scout opponents harder than themselves. Your transaction history is the film. Watch it.
100 million streams, one owner
Goth Babe keeps the whole cheque because he writes, produces and self-labels — and tours half the year to buy back the other half.
Our TakeGross revenue is a vanity metric. Structure — who owns what, net of all fees — is what funds a life.
The great classroom snack war
A viral Oreo argument may have been staged; the conflict is real, and it has moved from allergies to preferences.
Our TakeIt’s a governance question in a lunchbox. Guidelines teach judgment; prohibitions just postpone it.
A billionaire became his own curator
1,300 objects, 33 galleries, and two Journal critics finding the same flaw: nothing edited, nothing ranked.
Our TakeA collection with no editor is a portfolio with no thesis. Curation is mostly the discipline of exclusion.
He hadn’t eaten dessert in 20 years. Then came the wedding cake.
A fruit tart, a pie and a lasagna were all rejected before a strawberry ended the standoff.
Our TakeA good rule can quietly become a bill somebody else pays. The skill is knowing what the rule was for.
He paid $5,242 for business class and flew home in a middle seat
Seat downgrades hit 350+ DOT complaints this year. Under EU rules he was told he is due $933.84 of the $5,242.
Our TakeA contract is worth what you can document about it. Cite the rule, keep the screenshots, and ask.
One of the strongest El Niños on record is forming — and it comes with a map
Pacific storms 40% above average, half a million acres burned in Indonesia, and zero Atlantic hurricanes so far.
Our TakeA disaster is a cash-flow event before it is a settlement. Check the exclusions and the reserve while there’s still time.
‘We hand the money back and say good luck’
BlackRock (BLK) will build custom 401(k) funds holding private assets and annuities — and its own retirement chief named the system’s flaw out loud.
Our TakeBorrowing the pension’s income certainty is a good idea; borrowing its fee structure is not. The test is “net of all fees.”
Median income hit a record $87,460. Most people don’t feel it.
Poverty fell to a record-low 10.2% — and real income at the bottom tenth has risen $110 since 2019.
Our TakeThe gain came largely from more hours, not higher pay. Hours are finite; run your own six-year number.
The cost of never being wrong
Allison Schrager argues America forfeits growth for safety — and that layoff odds haven’t really changed since the 1950s.
Our TakeThe main risk in most portfolios isn’t a crash, it’s outliving the money. Maximum safety has its own failure mode.
A regulator changed its mind and these stocks doubled
uniQure (QURE) is up 77.6% and Replimune (REPL) 33.3% — on a softer FDA, not on new science.
Our TakePolitical risk dressed as scientific risk reverses the way it arrived. A poor fit for money with a date attached.
A cloud region lost customer data to an airstrike
Data stored exclusively in Bahrain is gone; the water used to fight the fires did more damage than the drones.
Our Take“Stored exclusively” is what turned an outage into permanent loss. Ask where the only copy of anything lives.
Japan just passed 100,000 people aged 100 or older
107,677 centenarians, up 7,914 in a year, and nearly 88% of them women.
Our TakeThe one risk where the good outcome and the bad outcome are the same event. Run the plan to 95 and see what breaks.
The 10-year closed above 5% — history says that rarely lasts
The last eight stretches above 5% averaged twelve trading days. The twenty years before 1998, it never went below.
Our TakeFive percent is the best entry yield in two decades and the worst time to be accidentally long. The difference is duration, not opinion.
A quarter point costs you $1.38. The real damage is somewhere else.
Cards reprice in a billing cycle. Mortgages track the 10-year and had already gone from 6% in February to nearly 7%.
Our TakeThe announced increase is trivial; the unannounced one in the 10-year is not. Run the payment at today’s rate before you sign anything.
Twelve to nothing: how a unanimous hold became a unanimous hike
Warsh cited commodity prices, rejected the inflation-unemployment trade-off, and still refuses to give forward guidance.
Our TakeA Fed that won’t pre-announce means you hold what survives a meeting rather than what predicts one. An argument for plainer positioning.
‘It’s never really a one-and-done’
Futures put ~90% odds on another increase by year-end; Goldman’s base case is December, conditional on CPI and the oil price.
Our TakeA 90% number tells you what’s priced, not what happens. Check that nothing in the plan needs a particular Fed decision to work.
Diesel is acting like oil costs $200
Diesel hit $6.29, up 68% on the year, while crude fell $3.40. J.B. Hunt (JBHT) dropped 13% and Transports fell 2.78%.
Our TakeThis is the inflation a quarter point cannot reach. Energy already owned is the hedge — held, not chased at the spike.
The oil market is pricing $102 now and $72 later
A steeply backwardated curve, a third straight weekly inventory draw, and refineries running at 96.8% of capacity.
Our TakeThe market’s own curve says $100 isn’t permanent. Which is the argument against buying energy at the front-month spike.
Retail sales fell, then rebounded. The Fed raised anyway.
July dropped 0.6% with the control group down 0.4%; August came back strong and the Atlanta Fed marked Q3 growth up to 5.1%.
Our TakeOne month said slowdown, the next said boom. No allocation should turn on a single monthly release.
An AI slowdown was coming anyway — copper and kilowatts would have forced it
12% of U.S. electricity by 2030, a 25% copper shortfall by 2040, and a hyperscaler bond-index weight up 78% in a year.
Our TakeInvestors rewarded the spenders and punished the suppliers — that’s relief, not safety. Check what your bond index fund now owns.
‘Uninvestable’ in January, signing in September
Exxon (XOM) is close to a preliminary deal, Chevron (CVX) has committed $7 billion, and Harold Hamm signed Wednesday.
Our TakeThe reserves and the refinery fit are real; enforceability is the variable, and it can’t be hedged. A long-dated option, not a thesis.