The Year the Cuts Never Came
Forecasts are entertainment; positioning is the job. Action: nothing here changes a holding. It changes how much weight any prediction gets in a review — including ours.
The Year the Cuts Never Came
Wall Street forecast several cuts, the Fed delivered zero, and by late August the serious people were debating a hike instead.
The Recession That Kept Not Arriving
The economists never actually predicted a recession, their worry peaked just as the danger passed, and acting on the fear cost double-digit gains.
How to Read a Forecast
Trust forecasts with triggers, ranges and short horizons; discount round numbers, drama and anything without a date attached.
Coca-Cola Sold 417,000 Shares in 1919. It Sells 1.9 Billion Drinks a Day.
Coca-Cola won 2026 while the Journal was explaining why it should lose, which is an argument about sizing, not about switching.
Lucent Lent Customers the Money to Buy Its Gear. It Did Not End Well.
Vendor financing makes a boom look bigger than it is, and Nvidia has already stepped back from part of its own program.
Washington Was Evicted From New York and Won the War Anyway
Cash exists to keep you in the fight through a bad market, not to replace being invested in the first place.
Nvidia Promised Its Suppliers $279 Billion
Nvidia's demand is genuine, but the company is increasingly financing both the suppliers behind it and the customers in front of it.
Bill Gates Says There Is No Plan for the AI Era
One of the people who built the software industry is asking governments to tax and slow it, before the job losses show up.
A Carmaker Thinks Its Best Business Will Be a Robot
The robots are real and the margins might be too, but the revenue is still a projection rather than a number.
Pick the Date First. The Portfolio Will Follow.
Write the goal down with a date on it, because the date, not the goal, decides what you should own.
The Social Security Math Has a Date on It Now
Build the plan on 78 cents of every projected Social Security dollar, and treat whatever Congress rescues as a raise.
What the Fee Is Actually For
Index funds made owning the market nearly free, so a fee is only worth paying when it buys planning, discipline and a fiduciary promise.
The 15-Week Credential Just Got Federal Backing
A credential earned in twelve weeks, paid by a grant, may be the highest-return project in the entire household plan.
Living Longer Is Wonderful. Someone Still Pays the Premium.
The medicine adding years to your life is also adding a bill, and the bill grows faster than income.
The Habits That Add Years Are Free. The Industry Selling Them Is Not.
The cheapest longevity plan on the market is walking, sleeping and having friends, and nobody can sell you a subscription.
A Pancreatic Cancer Drug Finally Works. It Costs $477,000 a Year.
The drug adds about six months of life on average, and the sticker for each of those months is $39,800.
Your Insurance Card Decides How Long You Wait for Cancer Care
Coverage is not only a price. It is a place in line, and the line carries a measurable mortality cost.
Three Trillion Dollars Sits in Cash. Here Is the Honest Math.
Cash is keeping pace with inflation before taxes, not after, and it is losing badly to stocks.
Swapping Indexes to Dodge SpaceX Was Pretty Much a Wash
Picking an index to dodge one stock is still stock picking, and it is just as easy to get wrong.
The Index Fund Turns 50. It Started as a Punchline.
The cheapest, dullest idea in investing won on arithmetic, and cost still matters more than cleverness.
The Pension Is a Promise. Own Something Outside It.
Safety pensions are generous, political and pooled — three reasons to also own money that answers only to you.
The Trades Pay. The Robot Is Still in Its Cage.
The trades pay well and resist automation, so the real project is turning a good year into something that compounds.
Burned-Out Workers Are Going to Clown School to Practice Failing
People are paying to practice failing because the jobs they return to no longer leave room for it.
He Set the Fastest Time. Someone Else Got the Record.
A result nobody can verify is not a record, and the same rule applies to investment returns.
The $20,000 Concert Habit and the Spreadsheet Behind It
The fans spending the most on concerts are often the ones who know their own number best.
The Dog Got the House. The Owners Got the Renovation Bill.
A house built around one dog is a wonderful life and a poor way to store money.