Capital WealthThe Bad News Wall Street Wanted
- The jobs report was bad, and the market cheered. September added 29,000 jobs against 84,000 expected, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. Futures moved to about a 77% chance the Fed holds this month (CME FedWatch, per the Journal). Friday the Nasdaq rose 1.19% and the S&P 500 0.73% to 7,722.72 — 0.98% under its record.
- The long end didn’t get the memo. The Journal’s 10-year closed Friday at 5.276% after its highest level since 2002 earlier in the week; its 0.83-point jump in the third quarter was the biggest since 1994. Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage hit 7.40%, a 52-week high. Long duration stays avoided.
- The index hid a narrow market. Almost 80% of S&P 500 stocks fell in September and the average one lost 5%, while the index barely moved. Even on Friday’s up day, the NYSE printed 36 new highs against 134 new lows.
- Diesel’s export-ban threat moved away. The G-7 and allies will release 100 million barrels, diesel first, and pledged not to restrict energy exports. Valero’s written trim trigger — a published White House restriction — just got less likely. Hold, nothing added.
- Two papers on the life side. Ferrari’s “cheap” $261,810 Amalfi, men in speedsuits, Costco’s trampoline, a $15,000 microcar, cereal with Diet Coke, a winemaker’s last vintages, the passwords on the calendar, adult children cutting off parents — and Disney’s early-retirement offer to executives over 50.
Just 29,000 jobs, and Wall Street cheered. The October hike looks off the table. Long rates aren’t.
September added 29,000 jobs against 84,000 expected, and the market “got the bit of bad news it was hoping for”: odds of a Fed hold this month rose to about 77% and the Nasdaq jumped 1.2%. But pay is up 3% while prices are up 3.4%, the 10-year still closed at 5.276%, and Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage hit 7.40%.
A pause changes the mood, not the price of money. Keep cash in bills at 4%-plus, price any mortgage off 7.40%, and build the job-search cushion now.
The cheapest Ferrari starts at $261,810. Then come the options
Ferrari’s entry-level Amalfi starts at $261,810; Dan Neil’s test car carried $143,710 in options.
Our TakeOn any big purchase, the base price is the bait. Budget the all-in number before the options list does it for you.
Weekend runners are buying pro speedsuits. The speed is optional
After Ingebrigtsen’s Paris gold, amateur men are buying $168-to-$345 speedsuits, mostly for the vibe.
Our TakeThe suit’s speed gains mostly matter for the elite — and so do the perks of a lot of pro-grade financial products. Know which one you’re paying for.
Went for toilet paper, left with a trampoline: readers’ best Costco buys
Readers’ best Costco buys: 64-ounce mayo, an 11-pound bag of turmeric, $4,400 gold bars — and a trampoline.
Our TakeBulk math only works if you use what you buy, and the treasure hunt is built to sell the trampoline. Set the budget before the cart.
Fiat’s $15,000 microcar tops out at 25 mph. A golf-cart retirement community wants it anyway
WSJ’s Ryan Felton spent days in Fiat’s $15,000 mint-green Topolino: 25 mph tops, 46 miles of range, ropes for doors.
Our TakeIt’s a charming step up from a golf cart, with no air bags — price the second car as a yearly bill and call your insurer before the test drive.
Taryn Simon has never had coffee. Her day starts with cameras on her dad, who has Alzheimer’s
Taryn Simon’s day starts with camera footage of her father, who has Alzheimer’s, and sometimes his Life-and-Diet-Coke breakfast.
Our TakeHer morning check-in is a caregiving ritual many families share — sign the powers of attorney while a parent can still understand them.
He helped spark America’s Merlot boom. Some of his wine won’t be bottled until 2028
Tom Rinaldi rode a Harley into Duckhorn, made 800 cases of 1978 Merlot and helped start a boom that Sideways mocked.
Our TakeHe left a birthday-vintage cellar and wine still in barrel — inventory sentimental assets and name who gets each one before heirs have to guess.
Barbie gets a suitor: Mattel jumps 19% on a possible bid above $20 a share
A possible bid above $20 a share sent Barbie maker Mattel up 19% to $15.04, its best day in more than 7½ years.
Our TakeTakeover premiums go to people who owned the stock when nobody wanted it… Chasing the rumor after the jump is a different bet — size it like one.
About 10 million palm-size Etch A Sketches later, the 66-year-old toy shrinker can’t stop
Alan Dorfman, 66, shrinks classic toys into working minis and has sold about 10 million keychain Etch A Sketches.
Our TakeHe left a salary in 1989 with a baby on the way and still can’t stop — love the work, but fund a retirement that doesn’t depend on it.
A billionaire bought eight houses for his staff — then the HOA rewrote the rules
Larry Ellison paid almost $10 million for eight homes in a Florida HOA community to house his staff.
Our TakeOne couple more than doubled their money, then the HOA changed the rules; know your basis and your covenants before a big offer lands.
Menopause, priced by the night: a writer’s tour of medical spas at $500 to $755 a night
Menopause hit at 55; a writer took it to medical spas: $3,700 in the Dolomites, $2,880 near Cancún, $4,442 next.
Our TakeMidlife health is a real line in the retirement budget; price the whole trip, don’t assume HSA/FSA covers it, and ask for evidence on the peptides.
The feng shui master wanted red. They bought towels: two designers on going bold for less
Designers Keltner de Valle and Valle: drench a room in one color and it reads neutral — or just buy red-piped towels.
Our TakePaint and textiles are the cheapest bold move; save the permanent renovation for a house you’ll stay in long enough to love it.
Sundance is moving to Boulder. Before you buy the condo, see the town in its quiet months
Sundance moves to Boulder next year: Pearl Street, a starred Frasca ($150 for four courses) and a $10.50 airport bus.
Our TakeA festival shows a town in its best week; if it’s on your retirement list, visit off-season and price the whole year.
On’s sneakers are everywhere and built to skip the sale rack. The stock is another story
On grew past $3.5 billion in sales selling $160 sneakers it keeps off the sale rack; its stock is down 33.63% this year.
Our TakeA great product isn’t automatically a great stock, and paying full price on purpose can be a sound budget call. Watch On; buy the shoe if you’ll wear it.
Ted Turner died owning 1 in 5 U.S. bison. The op-ed case that ranchers saved the species
Ted Turner died owning about 45,000 bison, and about 80% of U.S. bison now live on private ranches.
Our TakeOne Montana herd grazes land under a permanent conservation easement — landowners should weigh that estate and tax tool before the heirs have to.
The bravest call on Meru was turning around 300 feet from the top
Jimmy Chin’s new book on courage includes a lesson from a climber who turned back 300 feet below Meru’s summit.
Our TakeRisk tolerance is what you can stomach; capacity is what your plan can survive… Set the turnaround point before the climb.
Last to hire, still unbeaten: the Raiders waited for their coach and are 3-0
Last of 10 teams to hire a coach, the Raiders waited for Klint Kubiak — and are 3-0.
Our TakeBeing first feels like winning; often it just means taking whoever was available that week… Write down what you’re waiting for, then wait.
117 pitches vs. 70: the Yankees trusted their ace, and the Red Sox pulled theirs
The Yankees let Cam Schlittler throw 117 pitches; Boston pulled Sonny Gray at 70 and lost 9-2.
Our TakeRebalancing is a pitch count set before the game; yanking a winner in the jam is a feeling… Write the rule down while you’re calm.
They beat Dennis Conner fair and square. Then a three-way deal said it didn’t count
An all-women crew beat Dennis Conner in 1995, then learned a backroom deal made the win moot.
Our TakeThe crew won on the water and lost in a room they never saw… Ask who else profits, and get the terms in writing.
A G.I.’s Leica, 4,000 negatives and a basement: John Baer’s photos reach print at last
A G.I. shot 4,000-plus negatives, stashed them in his basement and quit; his son and daughter-in-law found them.
Our TakeToo many family archives survive on luck alone… Inventory the basement, label the box, name who gets it.
Over 50 at Disney? The early-retirement offer came first; the TV cuts are being planned now
Disney offered early retirement to executives over 50 with 10+ years — then waited on the uptake before TV cuts.
Our TakeAn early-retirement offer is two futures, and saying no isn’t the same as nothing changing… Price health coverage to 65 before you sign.
The passwords on the calendar’s last page — and the checklist they stand for
A dying man wrote his passwords on a calendar’s last page; nine days after the diagnosis, he was gone.
Our TakePasswords get a family in the door; it takes a power of attorney, directives and a will to give them authority — put it all on paper while you’re well.
Adult children are cutting off parents — and the estate plan can’t stay silent
Experts say family cutoffs are rising; at any time, 10% of Americans are estranged from a parent or child.
Our TakeA rift doesn’t rewrite the will, the beneficiary forms or the executor’s duties — decide on purpose what they say.
Owners are 38x richer, a reader says — but the habit, not the house, does the work
Readers answer the case for renting: one says owners are 38x richer; another credits forced savings, not the house.
Our TakeForced savings is a habit dressed up as a mortgage — renters can automate it, and owners can undo it with a cash-out refi.
At 7.28% mortgages, buyers lean on 401(k)s, family and ARMs — and each one sends a bill later
Mortgages jumped to 7.28%, the biggest weekly rise since 2022, and the median down payment hit $27,166.
Our TakeA 401(k), a family check or an ARM can close the gap — price the taxes, the paperwork and the reset before you sign.
Downsizing from 3,400 square feet to 1,315 took a $1 million lot and a $1 million build budget
A Seattle couple, 68 and 74, swapped 3,400 square feet for a new 1,315 — on a lot that cost $1 million.
Our TakeThey designed it so they never have to climb the stairs, but smaller wasn’t cheap; price the lot, the build and the years you’ll stay.
Bought for $671,000 in 1985, listed at $3.5 million — and an easement bars carving it up
A GM executive’s 1923 Ann Arbor dairy-farm house lists at $3.5 million; the owners paid $671,000 in 1985.
Our TakeA 2012 preservation easement travels with the deed; for older owners, selling now versus holding for the step-up at death is worth modeling.
Proposed rules: married couples could get a dollar-for-dollar $3,400 school-choice credit in 2027
Treasury’s proposed rules would let married couples claim up to $3,400, dollar for dollar, under the 2027 school-choice credit.
Our TakeA credit comes off the tax bill itself, not off taxable income — put it on the 2027 list beside the 529, not instead of it.
Two appeals courts say your role, not your title, decides the 3.8% tax for limited partners
Two appeals courts reject the limited-partner escape from the 3.8% Medicare tax for partners who run their firms.
Our TakeIt isn’t just hedge funds — if you own and help run an LLC or partnership, have your CPA test your role, not your title, before year-end.
Colleges are courting fraternities again — budget for the bill the brochure skips
Fraternity membership is rebounding — 6.38% of college men in 2024 — as schools invite chapters back amid new scandals.
Our TakeDues, chapter housing and social costs rarely appear in the college brochure — get the fee schedule in writing and budget it like tuition.
The average car is 13 years old — and Mavis has 4,400 shops waiting for it
The average U.S. car is about 13 years old, and Mavis has bought its way to 4,400 repair shops to fix them.
Our TakeKeeping a paid-off car usually beats a $50,000 loan at 6.97% — if the repair money’s already set aside. Fund the repairs first.
Under-$25,000 sedans and small SUVs are winning — buy the car you need, not the one on offer
Elantra sales jumped 18% and Jeep’s Grand Cherokee fell 30% as buyers turn to cars starting under $25,000.
Our TakeThe lineup is built for the automaker’s margins — buy the car you need, priced on total cost of ownership at a 6.97% 48-month loan.
Community bankers sue over crypto charters. First, know what a trust bank isn’t
Community bankers sued the OCC over national trust charters for crypto firms — banks that traditionally take no deposits.
Our TakeA charter isn’t a backstop; deposits, custody and stablecoins are protected differently. Ask where your cash sits before moving it for yield.
No Atlantic hurricanes yet — a record. The storms went to the Pacific; check your policy anyway
Eight named Atlantic storms, zero hurricanes: El Niño’s wind shear helped break a century-old record.
Our TakeHawaii took the hits instead, so the risk moved; it didn’t vanish. Check your hurricane deductible and flood policy now.
A cancer blood test catches 14% of Stage 1 tumors — and its stock is priced like Medicare said yes
An FDA panel backed Grail’s cancer blood test, which caught about 14% of Stage 1 cancers and 60% at Stage 4.
Our TakeAt about $150, Grail is priced for Medicare coverage Wolfe rates nearer a coin flip — and none before 2029. Ask your doctor before paying; watch the stock.
One in five voters dislikes both parties. Your portfolio shouldn’t pick a side either
21% of voters now dislike both parties, up from 13% in 2022, and 84% of them rate the economy poor or not so good.
Our TakeThat mood is real, but it makes a poor portfolio manager. Build a plan that holds up whoever wins on Nov. 3.
The index looked fine in September; the average stock fell 5% and CCC spreads jumped over a point
In September almost 80% of S&P stocks fell and the average lost 5%, but the index barely budged — AI carried it.
Our TakeA calm index can hide a narrow market — check your fund’s top-ten weight and your bond fund’s credit quality.
Oil struck the match, debt is the kindling — and the bond rout burned hottest in France and Italy
The U.S. 10-year rose 0.83 point in Q3, the most since 1994 — and France and Italy, also deep in debt, rose more.
Our TakeOil lit the bond rout, but debt keeps it burning — match bonds to the dates you need the money and leave long Treasurys alone.
Getting into private funds may soon get easier. Blue Owl just showed what getting out looks like
Investors asked two Blue Owl funds to redeem 16.8% and 39% of their shares, against an industry-standard 5% cap.
Our TakeZweig says the SEC is opening private funds to people who can least afford to get stuck. Ask how you get out before you ask what it yields.
AI has to earn roughly America’s food bill to pay for itself. Fiber’s prices fell 96%
One estimate says AI revenue would need to reach $3.5 trillion, or 8.8% of GDP, in 2032 to justify the build-out.
Our TakeFiber bandwidth prices fell 96% in four years, and AI capability prices are falling faster. Own AI at a weight you could hold through a fiber-style bust.
The G-7 opens the diesel tap and swears off export curbs. Valero’s trim trigger just moved away
The G-7 will release 100 million barrels over four months, diesel first, and pledged not to restrict energy exports.
Our TakeThe pledge appears to end the U.S. diesel-ban threat for now, moving Valero’s written trim trigger away. Hold — and budget the winter at today’s price.
Casper pitched a $432 billion sleep economy and was a $3.55 stock a year later. Beware the big TAM
SpaceX pitched a $28.5 trillion market; Casper pitched a $432 billion one and was a $3.55 stock a year later.
Our TakeA huge, oddly precise market-size number is marketing, and money-losing IPOs have lagged badly. Buy the business, not the TAM — and keep it small.
Nike plans to shrink and its stock has nearly halved — a concentration lesson and a tax one
Nike plans to shrink as its stock hits a new low, down 46.84% this year and on pace for its worst year on record.
Our TakeEven a blue chip can halve in a year — cap single-stock exposure and review taxable losses before Dec. 31, minding the wash-sale rule.
A bond that’s paid interest since 1624 has lost 99% of its real value. Safety is a price
A Dutch bond from 1624 still pays €13.61 a year — and has lost 99% of its real value.
Our TakeGrant’s point: a bond’s safety lives in its price, its maturity and the money it pays in. Keep safe money in bills; size long bonds as the rate bet they are.